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Sat Oct 10, 2015, 03:41 PM

Today's LA Times: About the massive El Nino that is too big to fail.

The link: http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-massive-el-nino-is-now-too-big-to-fail-scientist-says-20151009-story.html

By Rong-Gong Lin II

An El Niño that is among the strongest on record is gaining strength in the Pacific Ocean, and climate scientists say California is likely to face a wet winter.

“There’s no longer a possibility that El Niño wimps out at this point. It’s too big to fail,” said Bill Patzert, climatologist for NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge.

“And the winter over North America is definitely not going to be normal,” he said.


Just three weeks ago, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center raised the odds of California getting doused with a wetter-than-average winter. Southern California now has more than a 60% chance of a wet winter, a 33% chance of a normal winter and less than a 7% chance of a dry winter.


The importance of the El Niño storm of 1997-1998 is now coming into focus as scientists say the weather pattern is returning to Southern California with a vengeance.

The odds of a wet winter further north are increasing too. San Francisco has more than a 40% chance of a wet winter, 33% chance of a normal winter and less than a 27% chance of a dry winter.




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Reply Today's LA Times: About the massive El Nino that is too big to fail. (Original post)
CaliforniaPeggy Oct 2015 OP
PearliePoo2 Oct 2015 #1
CaliforniaPeggy Oct 2015 #2
question everything Oct 2015 #3
CaliforniaPeggy Oct 2015 #4
pinboy3niner Oct 2015 #7
tularetom Oct 2015 #5
pinboy3niner Oct 2015 #6
cherokeeprogressive Oct 2015 #8
olddots Oct 2015 #9
CaliforniaPeggy Oct 2015 #10
66 dmhlt Oct 2015 #11

Response to CaliforniaPeggy (Original post)

Sat Oct 10, 2015, 03:47 PM

1. Too big to fail..lol

This may be the one time "too big to fail" may be a GOOD thing!
(but please...no catastrophic flooding. Just nice, ground soaking, reservoir-filling, plain old RAIN)

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Response to PearliePoo2 (Reply #1)

Sat Oct 10, 2015, 03:51 PM

2. Exactly!

I too hope for nice ground soaking rain!

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Response to CaliforniaPeggy (Original post)

Sat Oct 10, 2015, 03:51 PM

3. But it is still in the 90s in LA!

We are planning to visit there next week, were hoping for some respite by the middle of October...

No such luck.

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Response to question everything (Reply #3)

Sat Oct 10, 2015, 03:53 PM

4. It is hot here now, for sure.

I don't know when this El Nino is supposed to start.

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Response to CaliforniaPeggy (Reply #4)

Sat Oct 10, 2015, 04:07 PM

7. I could look it up, but I think they were saying January iirc. nt

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Response to CaliforniaPeggy (Original post)

Sat Oct 10, 2015, 04:02 PM

5. Well, where the hell is it?

The "water year" here in CA begins on 1 October and we had a few showers on that day but since then - nada. Not even a cloud. Our pasture has been brown since about April 2014.

Not that I wouldn't welcome a nice rainy winter but what we really need that we didn't get in the 97-98 season is a lot of snow in the Sierra. The storms that typically accompany one of these El Ninos are of the Pineapple Express type - warm fronts that bring a lot of rain but very little snow to higher elevations.

Well, it's still early in the season. I looked out the window this morning and saw squirrels burying acorns out under the oak trees. That's probably a sign of something but I don't know what.

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Response to CaliforniaPeggy (Original post)

Sat Oct 10, 2015, 04:05 PM

6. In this one case, "too big to fail" is music to my ears

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Response to CaliforniaPeggy (Original post)

Sat Oct 10, 2015, 04:20 PM

8. I'm hoping for big snow followed by big rain as often as possible.

 

When the snow melts slowly, not as much makes it into the lake. When the rain falls hard and melts the snow fast enough that it can't either evaporate or soak into the ground the lake stands a bigger chance of filling up. I live here for the lake and hope beyond hoping that it fills up this winter.

Love ya, Dearest Peg!

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Response to CaliforniaPeggy (Original post)

Sat Oct 10, 2015, 04:37 PM

9. we have no ground water the soil is like cement

 

This will be a wild winter .

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Response to olddots (Reply #9)

Sat Oct 10, 2015, 04:43 PM

10. Then there had better be lots and lots of catch basins! n/t

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Response to CaliforniaPeggy (Original post)

Sat Oct 10, 2015, 04:47 PM

11. Since most reservoirs are up north, glad it's moving north

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