Sat Oct 10, 2015, 03:41 PM

Today's LA Times: About the massive El Nino that is too big to fail.

The link: http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-massive-el-nino-is-now-too-big-to-fail-scientist-says-20151009-story.html

By Rong-Gong Lin II

An El Niño that is among the strongest on record is gaining strength in the Pacific Ocean, and climate scientists say California is likely to face a wet winter.

“There’s no longer a possibility that El Niño wimps out at this point. It’s too big to fail,” said Bill Patzert, climatologist for NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge.

“And the winter over North America is definitely not going to be normal,” he said.

Just three weeks ago, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center raised the odds of California getting doused with a wetter-than-average winter. Southern California now has more than a 60% chance of a wet winter, a 33% chance of a normal winter and less than a 7% chance of a dry winter.

The importance of the El Niño storm of 1997-1998 is now coming into focus as scientists say the weather pattern is returning to Southern California with a vengeance.

The odds of a wet winter further north are increasing too. San Francisco has more than a 40% chance of a wet winter, 33% chance of a normal winter and less than a 27% chance of a dry winter.

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11 replies	Author	Time	Post
Today's LA Times: About the massive El Nino that is too big to fail. (Original post)	CaliforniaPeggy	Oct 2015	OP
Too big to fail..lol	PearliePoo2	Oct 2015	#1
Exactly!	CaliforniaPeggy	Oct 2015	#2
But it is still in the 90s in LA!	question everything	Oct 2015	#3
It is hot here now, for sure.	CaliforniaPeggy	Oct 2015	#4
I could look it up, but I think they were saying January iirc. nt	pinboy3niner	Oct 2015	#7
Well, where the hell is it?	tularetom	Oct 2015	#5
In this one case, "too big to fail" is music to my ears	pinboy3niner	Oct 2015	#6
I'm hoping for big snow followed by big rain as often as possible.	cherokeeprogressive	Oct 2015	#8
we have no ground water the soil is like cement	olddots	Oct 2015	#9
Then there had better be lots and lots of catch basins! n/t	CaliforniaPeggy	Oct 2015	#10
Since most reservoirs are up north, glad it's moving north	66 dmhlt	Oct 2015	#11

Response to CaliforniaPeggy (Original post)

Sat Oct 10, 2015, 03:47 PM

PearliePoo2 (7,768 posts)

1. Too big to fail..lol

This may be the one time "too big to fail" may be a GOOD thing!
(but please...no catastrophic flooding. Just nice, ground soaking, reservoir-filling, plain old RAIN)

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Response to PearliePoo2 (Reply #1)

Sat Oct 10, 2015, 03:51 PM

CaliforniaPeggy (136,815 posts)

2. Exactly!

I too hope for nice ground soaking rain!

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Response to CaliforniaPeggy (Original post)

Sat Oct 10, 2015, 03:51 PM

question everything (40,753 posts)

3. But it is still in the 90s in LA!

We are planning to visit there next week, were hoping for some respite by the middle of October...

No such luck.

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Response to question everything (Reply #3)

Sat Oct 10, 2015, 03:53 PM

CaliforniaPeggy (136,815 posts)

4. It is hot here now, for sure.

I don't know when this El Nino is supposed to start.

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Response to CaliforniaPeggy (Reply #4)

Sat Oct 10, 2015, 04:07 PM

pinboy3niner (53,339 posts)

7. I could look it up, but I think they were saying January iirc. nt

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Response to CaliforniaPeggy (Original post)

Sat Oct 10, 2015, 04:02 PM

tularetom (23,664 posts)

5. Well, where the hell is it?

The "water year" here in CA begins on 1 October and we had a few showers on that day but since then - nada. Not even a cloud. Our pasture has been brown since about April 2014.

Not that I wouldn't welcome a nice rainy winter but what we really need that we didn't get in the 97-98 season is a lot of snow in the Sierra. The storms that typically accompany one of these El Ninos are of the Pineapple Express type - warm fronts that bring a lot of rain but very little snow to higher elevations.

Well, it's still early in the season. I looked out the window this morning and saw squirrels burying acorns out under the oak trees. That's probably a sign of something but I don't know what.

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Response to CaliforniaPeggy (Original post)

Sat Oct 10, 2015, 04:05 PM

pinboy3niner (53,339 posts)

6. In this one case, "too big to fail" is music to my ears

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Response to CaliforniaPeggy (Original post)

Sat Oct 10, 2015, 04:20 PM

cherokeeprogressive (24,853 posts)

8. I'm hoping for big snow followed by big rain as often as possible.

When the snow melts slowly, not as much makes it into the lake. When the rain falls hard and melts the snow fast enough that it can't either evaporate or soak into the ground the lake stands a bigger chance of filling up. I live here for the lake and hope beyond hoping that it fills up this winter.

Love ya, Dearest Peg!

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Response to CaliforniaPeggy (Original post)

Sat Oct 10, 2015, 04:37 PM

olddots (10,237 posts)