So who are people rooting for/against in the GOP nomination?

[DanTex]

There are two factors. One, how easy they are to beat. Two, how horrible would it be if they were president.

In my estimation, the main contenders ranked from easiest to beat to hardest, I'd go with:
Trump
Bush
Fiorina
Carson
Rubio

Ranked from least horrible to most horrible:
Bush
Fiorina
Rubio
Carson
Trump

Putting these together, ranked from who I'd most like to see to least, I'd say:
Bush
Trump
Fiorina
Carson
Rubio

Thoughts? Agreements/disagreements?

[hobbit709]

1. All those options are a case of do you want to catch syphilis or smallpox?

[DanTex]

2. This is true, which is why it's not pleasant to think about.

Still, someone is coming out of the GOP primary, so I think it's worth discussing.

[BootinUp]

3. Yeah, I'd switch em around a little

Easiest to Hardest

Carson
Trump
Fiorina

Tie: Rubio/Bush

Least Horrible to Worst (Wow this is hard, its a very flat scale folks)
Trump
Fiorina
Bush
Carson
Rubio

[DanTex]

5. Interesting. What makes you think that Bush would be harder and Carson easier?

I certainly agree that it is a very flat scale, but I'm also curious about what makes you think Trump is least horrible?

The reason I think Bush would be easier to beat than some is because he's a known quantity that nobody likes much. He's basically another Romney, maybe with a little more baggage because of W.

The reason I think Trump would be worst is because he is a megalomaniac, and who knows what crazy stuff he might try to pull. Maybe he'll actually go over the debt ceiling and cause the world to tumble into chaos. Maybe he'll start some crazy war. Maybe he'll issue some executive order to deport 10 million people. I'm thinking with someone like Bush, it would be a lot of gridlock.

[BootinUp]

6. Carson is the biggest joke

He's got major ethical baggage, and doesn't have a clue about politics.

I believe Bush is a lot like his brother. Some forget that Dubya went through some rough times politically (low approvals both before 9/11 and later). They have a way of brushing it off that seems to work. Bushes advantage is that he has drawn a lot of money and when the field thins he will draw a lot more.

I believe Trump is very dangerous. On the other hand, he is not a fundamentalist wacko. Those types scare me more I guess.

[DanTex]

7. Good points, thanks. I didn't know about Carson's baggage. He kinda scares me because everything

I hear him say is crazy, but he talks with this calm reasonable-sounding demeanor that maybe people will vote for. Who knows.

[Hortensis]

9. For hard to beat, agree with BootinUp. Except where's Kasich?

Last edited Fri Oct 30, 2015, 09:50 AM - Edit history (1)

I'd rank him with, or just below, Rubio/Bush for the harder to beat end.

As for bad, I've read stuff suggesting he is another really bad egg, like Rubio. Even so-called "moderate" Bush is definitely not moderate, just not crazy right. For worst, though, I will go with Carson. Incompetent or no, he's a religious fanatic in a nation of many millions of the same in dangerous times. Then because of the Supreme Court, Rubio, Bush, Kasich. Best? With court appointments that will live on decades after the president is gone in mind, believe it or not, ridiculously...Trump.

As for why I think Bush (or Rubio, or Kasich) would be harder to beat, we're talking about the GOP here, and its money backers. Tribal unity against the enemy and conformity with the group is pretty natural for the rank and file, and the GOP is still the great white male hope of Big Money.

More voters should fall away from the GOP this weird season, but basically the remnant GOP (supposedly 24% of the electorate earlier this year) is all trained to be implacably, batshit-crazy against the left, so I'm guessing those who don't leave the party altogether, and most right-leaning "independents," will ultimately form up behind its nominee for the attack. Also because many are desperate for a winnable candidate to back. And then, of course, the BIG money really kicks in...

Another scenario, though, would be that many barn-burners instead come together to attack an "establishment" nominee, which would be fun.

*** Rethought after that last and came back. These people are really set against Bush, not so much Rubio or Kasich. I'm moving Rubio up as hardest to beat. He looks likable on TV and speaks well, he's anti-establishment, he's establishment, the Kochs et ilk like him, and he's ruthlessly ambitious and will adopt any position that will advance him. He's a natural for suckering the base.

[Vinca]

4. All of the GOP candidates are so bad I'm rooting for Trump.

The reason is simple. If the world is upended and he wins, at least SNL will have good material for 4 years.

[tk2kewl]

8. elections are not sporting events

They are about issues.

[Cosmocat]

10. IMO, it will be either Trump or Rubio

And, I think Rubio by far is the most dangerous general election threat.

He looks the part, which means a lot for a republican. He also is someone who the establishment likes, but will be tolerable to the tea party types. He is not the sharpest tack, but is not Palin dumb, as the singular republican candidate would be protected and coached enough to get by, not unlike Bush II.

He is like any other one other than trump, and would be both a complete ass to the other side and do, 100 percent what these deranged loons want as "conservatives."

I want NOTHING to do with him as their nominee, but I think if trump does not make it, he will be it.

Trump still is in the drivers seat, and would be no joke in the general, but a little lesser likely to win than Rubio.

WTF knows what he would do exactly as a POTUS, but he is the only one of these jackasses who would be his own man, and not just do 100 percent what every other one would do as republicans.

[Whiskeytide]

11. I think the models from 2008 and 2012...

... suggest the non traditional idiots like Carson, Trump and Fiorina will eventually flame out when more of the electorate start to pay attention to what's going on.

Bush's campaign is floundering. He has everything he could have - money, establishment backing, name recognition - but he's a lousy candidate and just seems to be adrift.

Christie is just too damaged. He hugged Obama.

Huckster has finite support. He can only get so far and that's not enough.

Paul will always be Paul.

That leaves Kasich, Rubio and Cruz. Cruz is pretty Tea Party. He's a good campaigner, but I don't think the establishment wants to back him.

Rubio is just too young (or at least too young seeming) to head the ticket. He's Veep material, though. If you put him on the ticket with Kasich, it's an establishment entree with a side of Tea Party, and it targets both Ohio and Fla. That's the pairing I see as the most dangerous, and the most horrible to have to deal with if elected.

[forthemiddle]

12. Rubio is too young?

You do realize that he is only 2 years younger than Obama was when he was elected?

I have compared (demographically) the two since this election began.
Both are young, charismatic, minority, first term Senators, and in the end that will make a difference.

I know we HATE this question, but quite honestly who would you rather have a beer with? Hillary or Marco Rubio.

Since Reagan it has been the most charismatic person that wins, regardless of policies. And that is why Rubio should have everyone shaking in their shoes.
Let's face it Reagan vs Carter? Reagan vs Mondale? Bush vs Dukakis? Clinton vs Bush or Dole (make me laugh)? Bush vs Gore (boring)? Bush vs Kerry (elitist)? Obama vs McCain (no contest!) and Obama vs Romney (a Ken doll, phony)??????

It's always the most likable, why do you think things will change this election. Can you honestly say with a straight face that Hillary is likable????????? She is extremely competent and she would be a highly skilled President, but do you want to have a beer with her?

American voters are shallow, very few actually know (or care about the issues like we do here) and I for one, do not see her rallying the young or the minorities like Obama was able to do.

[Whiskeytide]

15. That's why I qualified it with "seemingly too young".

I agree with everything you said. But Rubio is too young substantively. His platform has been too shaky. Obama was unusual because, though young, he could handle himself, and had a consistent track record. Rubio just cannot match Obama's charisma and wise beyond his years depth. Maybe the better descriptor is that Rubio at least "seems" too shallow and veneered.

Everything you've said is spot on, but I don't think the establishment will back Rubio with the same enthusiasm at the top of the ticket when they can get the same bump from him as the Veep. He just screams Veep to me.

But I'm with you on your concerns for the general and the criteria used by the electorate. Any Dem who thinks the general will be a cakewalk against any of the serious right contenders is deluding themselves.

[Oneironaut]

13. Fiorina / Cruz ticket. That would be a sure fire loss.

Sorry, but I don't even want the prospect of Trump winning. That's cutting it too close.

Carson is too attractive of a candidate (read: somewhat normal). Same with Rubio.

Bush has no chance - I'm immediately discounting him. He still has more of a shot than Fiorina, though.

[theboss]

14. I tend to go by "Who is the least likely to make me want to hang myself?"

I mean, I actually sort of/kind of/maybe actually like Kasich. But he doesn't have a chance. Personally, he's loathsome, but Christie is someone I could live with. He has no chance either.

Of the candidates who have a chance, I think I can survice Rubio the best.

I despite Ted Cruz with the power of a thousand burning suns. I've never disliked a politician more.

I can't imagine a world where Trump or Carson wins. That would basically be Jesse Ventura - except it's not a joke in a cold state but something that impacts me. I would still prefer both to Cruz.

Bush is tricky. I actually think he'd be competent in a boring way. And I don't think he's a lazy ideologue like his brother. If this was 2000, I could somewhat shrug my shoulders at him. But - as a nation - we can't reward that family. We just can't.