Fivethirtyeight: Bush's Problem is Jeb Bush

[Quixote1818]

My colleague (and boss) Nate Silver believes Jeb Bush is “probably toast.” He isn’t alone: A bunch of pundits are saying Bush is finished. I’m not sure I would go that far; there is no clear front-runner in either the endorsement race (which Bush nominally leads) or the money race (which Bush also leads, if you count super PAC money). With the Republican field in such disarray, I’m hesitant to predict anything with certainty.

But while I don’t think Bush’s demise is a fait accompli, I definitely agree that he’s in serious trouble. Bush isn’t going to win any primaries if his popularity among Republicans continues to plummet.

No candidate’s net favorability — the share of Republicans who view a candidate favorably minus the share who view him or her negatively — has fallen more than Bush’s since mid-June, when Bush and Donald Trump entered the race. Here are all the candidates’ net favorability ratings over that span, in a chart we put together before Wednesday’s Republican debate.


More: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/jeb-bushs-problem-is-jeb-bush/?ex_cid=538fb

[beac]

1. Nice to know that Bush fatigue appears to be quite real and extremely

widespread.

[Jim Beard]

2. It is a delimma and a a frightening one.

At least Jeb is human compared to his other televised companions. Lord forbid if Trump actually gets the nomination and wins the general election. It is fun to watch the republicans fight but it is really serious business. I could tolerate Jeb some but those other clowns would be a disaster.

[PSPS]

3. Don't be frightened. There's a reason they call it "the booby prize of the nomination."

The only way any GOP candidate can "win" the nomination is to out-crazy the others, and this insures their loss in the general election. Every one of them knows this. And, since they can't win the general, they're running only for the money (untraceable super-PAC money, larger public profile, speaking fees, job as TV crank, etc.)

The media, of course, pretends it's a horse race because that's how they sell ad time. Watch for the inevitable "polls" showing that "it's neck and neck!!11!!! Keep watching as it goes down to the wire!!22@!2 but first, a word from our sponsor!!1!"

[hifiguy]

4. Can we finally close the crypt door

on Bush Crime Family members running for high public office? Pretty please?

[napkinz]

5. kick