General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsIs a brokered convention a less disastrous outcome for the GOP than a Trump nomination?
The video below makes me think it would be a very bad idea for the GOP to try this but here is some punditry from Nate Silver and his colleagues: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republican-brokered-convention-donald-trump/
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Yes they should risk a brokered convention if Trump is winning. Trump is a disaster for the GOP. | |
3 (27%) |
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No they should not risk a brokered convention, that would mean losing the General for sure. | |
0 (0%) |
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It would depend on how close Trump is to winning the nomination | |
0 (0%) |
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Both are equally disastrous | |
4 (36%) |
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I love lamp | |
3 (27%) |
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I don't know | |
1 (9%) |
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0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided. | |
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virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)either way the Republican party blows apart.
Quixote1818
(28,905 posts)Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)Good
Ex Lurker
(3,808 posts)we need them to come back to reality. Like it or not, our country's political system is set up so that two parties will almost inevitably develop. It's better if they are both run by reasonable people putting forth reasonable ideas. If the GOP continues to be controlled by the fringe, or if it implodes and an even more radical party takes its place, that's bad for America.
Skittles
(152,970 posts)they've been controlled by THE FRINGE for quite some time
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)take their place.
This has happened several times over our history.
Where are the Federalists and Anti-Federalists,
The Democratic-Republican Party of Jefferson and Madison.
Where are the Whigs.
Add to that the fact that parties change.
Democrats used to be the southern pro-slave party. Republicans were the Northern Anti-slavery party.
If the GOP blows up, they will be replaced by a conservative party that is viable in modern politics, which means a bit closer to the center. It is also possible within the scope of history that Republican Party blows apart and Democrats move a bit farther right and a new left wing party emerges.
Our founding father did not like parties and political parties have no Constitutional significance. The Two party system in our winner take all system stable. Between 1810 and 1820, thee was a period when we had only one party. A second party came into existence.
Funtatlaguy
(10,856 posts)comradebillyboy
(10,119 posts)that they may bring back Romney if Trump does well in early primaries. Trump is a wrecking ball, the loosest of loose cannons. I personally think it's 50/50 that he runs as an independent. The republican contest is like a soap opera.
flamingdem
(39,304 posts)or bowing down to him as our new overlord. Is there any, any way he could actually win??
Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)Funtatlaguy
(10,856 posts)We elected Cheney via Rove controlling W.
Trump is a one man freak show. And, until proven otherwise, I think it's a hoax. Just watch.
EL34x4
(2,003 posts)So, to answer your question, yes, of course he could win. Anything's possible.
saltpoint
(50,986 posts)it forces consideration of a consensus candidate.
Which, in the Republican Party, means someone just as batshit crazy as the current field.
They may as well nominate Cliven Bundy. He seems as qualified as the whole lot of the current candidates. The entire GOP convention is going to be liquored up on Islamophobia and tax cuts. It's not a delegation capable of making good decisions.
saltpoint
(50,986 posts)emerge at the convention to meet behind closed doors and whip up a consensus ticket.
Who's at that meeting to negotiate a ticket? Reince Priebus? Wiil they bring in the old party hacks like James Baker? Is James Baker still alive?
Will they be pressured to choose a ticket among the standing candidates or will they arrange to nominate someone who was not besmirched by this ugly primary campaign?
They're in Ohio. John Kasich's name will be on reporters' lips.
The Cruz crazies will say, "Hey, no way we're giving any ground here. Mainstream conservatives have lost presidential races in recent cycles. This time we want the real thing and we're not compromising."
The counter argument will come that they'll lose if they nominate too polarizing a ticket.
At a near point into the discussion, the first punch will be thrown. The meeting will deteriorate into an alley fight. Feelings bruised, eyes blackened, bones broken, furniture busted. Multiple casualties.
This party is up Shit's Creek, and there's not an oar in sight.
brettdale
(12,332 posts)What is a Brokered convention?
Skittles
(152,970 posts)In United States politics, a brokered convention is a situation in which no single candidate has secured a pre-existing majority of delegates (whether those selected by primary elections and caucuses, or superdelegates) prior to the first official vote for a political party's presidential candidate at its nominating convention.
in other words, they are sh***ting bricks over Trump
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)presumably if they decide their primary voters can't actually be trusted with the job, that's where they'll end up with this deal again.
Skittles
(152,970 posts)these Fox News-fed idiots are going to find out who is really calling the shots
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Because the puppeteers at the top are now discovering that the Frankenstein thing they've been building in the basement for the past 40 years doesn't take their orders anymore, too.
Skittles
(152,970 posts)Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)They are reaping what they have sown, bigtime... and it is breathtaking to behold.
JVS
(61,935 posts)convention.
If the brokered convention overturns the will of the plurality of the voters they should either prepare for a disaster in November or have somehow found a compromise candidate who is universally beloved in the republican party. I'm not sure such a candidate is alive, since if he were he'd probably be in the race right now.
Vinca
(50,173 posts)one of the one percenters to be the nominee without causing total abandonment of the party. I think if Trump senses they plan to do this to get rid of him, he's gone . . . to a third party run. That will give Democrats all 50 states.
Hekate
(90,207 posts)Manifestor_of_Light
(21,046 posts)Ross Perot ran third-party and got 19% of the vote.
NaturalHigh
(12,778 posts)Both are train wrecks.
MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)There are many states with large delegate counts that are winner take all in the Republican Party, though many more states are proportional this year.
To have a brokered convention, three candidates must win delegate in nearly all of the states through Super Tuesday, and then all three must win some of the winner take all states in order for nobody to hit the threshold of 1236 delegates.
There is a further complication of some states sending unbound delegates, which means they can vote for whomever they please.
Act_of_Reparation
(9,116 posts)But at the end of the day, virtually any of the Republican contenders -- save, perhaps, Ben Carson -- stands a better change in the general than does Donald Trump.
Johonny
(20,687 posts)what outcome is worse than that? They have no candidates. No just for president, but any office. They have lots of people elected, but they suck. Most suck at unbelievable levels. If you're still voting GOP... there's your problem.
Major Hogwash
(17,656 posts)And according to many of the pundits talking about this, they say the top donors in the GOP party DON'T want Trump to be their nominee.
So, they can actually force a brokered convention to keep him from becoming the nominee.
And that way, if they wind up with a brokered convention, they can choose someone else, say Cruz, who is a Senator and has some semblance of validity to speak of.
Or Rubio, who is also someone who has won an election to the Senate before.
However, the fear is that if the GOP's top donors force a brokered convention just to prevent Trump from becoming the nominee, he will break away and run as an Independent, and take his 25% of the GOP voters with him.
On the other hand, even if Trump somehow doesn't become their nominee before they hold their convention, Trump may run as an Independent anyway!
Trump has the entire GOP party by the short hairs, and they don't like it.
That's the reality they are dealing with now.
This is the problem party politics has, having to deal with a cult of personality built up around a popular ideologue.
By just threatening to run last year, Trump had them all shaking in their boots.
Now that he is the front runner in all of their polls, they have to stop him, but they have to do it in such a way as to make it appear like it wasn't such a bad thing for them to keep him from being their nominee and taking over their party.
Trump's crowds at his political rallies have a mob-like personality of their own.
He whips them in to a frenzy by saying outrageous shit.
Just like Hitler did in the early 1930s, during his rise to power.
Many people much older than me said that it could never happen here, here in America.
Yet, we're witnessing it take shape before our very eyes today.