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Fri Dec 11, 2015, 12:04 AM

Is a brokered convention a less disastrous outcome for the GOP than a Trump nomination?

The video below makes me think it would be a very bad idea for the GOP to try this but here is some punditry from Nate Silver and his colleagues: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republican-brokered-convention-donald-trump/




13 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
Yes they should risk a brokered convention if Trump is winning. Trump is a disaster for the GOP.
3 (23%)
No they should not risk a brokered convention, that would mean losing the General for sure.
0 (0%)
It would depend on how close Trump is to winning the nomination
0 (0%)
Both are equally disastrous
6 (46%)
I love lamp
3 (23%)
I don't know
1 (8%)
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Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

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Reply Is a brokered convention a less disastrous outcome for the GOP than a Trump nomination? (Original post)
Quixote1818 Dec 2015 OP
virtualobserver Dec 2015 #1
Quixote1818 Dec 2015 #3
Agnosticsherbet Dec 2015 #2
Ex Lurker Dec 2015 #6
Skittles Dec 2015 #11
Agnosticsherbet Dec 2015 #23
Funtatlaguy Dec 2015 #28
comradebillyboy Dec 2015 #4
flamingdem Dec 2015 #5
Art_from_Ark Dec 2015 #9
Funtatlaguy Dec 2015 #29
EL34x4 Dec 2015 #30
saltpoint Dec 2015 #7
saltpoint Dec 2015 #8
brettdale Dec 2015 #10
Skittles Dec 2015 #12
Warren DeMontague Dec 2015 #14
Skittles Dec 2015 #16
Warren DeMontague Dec 2015 #17
Skittles Dec 2015 #24
Warren DeMontague Dec 2015 #13
JVS Dec 2015 #15
Vinca Dec 2015 #18
Hekate Dec 2015 #25
Manifestor_of_Light Dec 2015 #26
NaturalHigh Dec 2015 #19
MohRokTah Dec 2015 #20
Act_of_Reparation Dec 2015 #21
Johonny Dec 2015 #22
Major Hogwash Dec 2015 #27

Response to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 12:06 AM

1. They are equally disastrous.

 

either way the Republican party blows apart.

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Response to virtualobserver (Reply #1)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 12:12 AM

3. I threw in the option you suggested. Thanks. nt

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Response to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 12:12 AM

2. This will be bad for Republicans.

Good

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Response to Agnosticsherbet (Reply #2)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 02:36 AM

6. We don't need the GOP to blow apart

we need them to come back to reality. Like it or not, our country's political system is set up so that two parties will almost inevitably develop. It's better if they are both run by reasonable people putting forth reasonable ideas. If the GOP continues to be controlled by the fringe, or if it implodes and an even more radical party takes its place, that's bad for America.

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Response to Ex Lurker (Reply #6)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 06:12 AM

11. you do know they sucked pre-Trump, right?

they've been controlled by THE FRINGE for quite some time

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Response to Ex Lurker (Reply #6)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 12:33 PM

23. If the Republican Party blows apart, a conservative party will grow over an election cycle to two to

take their place.

This has happened several times over our history.
Where are the Federalists and Anti-Federalists,
The Democratic-Republican Party of Jefferson and Madison.
Where are the Whigs.

Add to that the fact that parties change.

Democrats used to be the southern pro-slave party. Republicans were the Northern Anti-slavery party.

If the GOP blows up, they will be replaced by a conservative party that is viable in modern politics, which means a bit closer to the center. It is also possible within the scope of history that Republican Party blows apart and Democrats move a bit farther right and a new left wing party emerges.

Our founding father did not like parties and political parties have no Constitutional significance. The Two party system in our winner take all system stable. Between 1810 and 1820, thee was a period when we had only one party. A second party came into existence.

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Response to Ex Lurker (Reply #6)

Sat Dec 12, 2015, 06:25 AM

28. Run by reasonable people

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Response to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 12:19 AM

4. The republicans are so desperate

that they may bring back Romney if Trump does well in early primaries. Trump is a wrecking ball, the loosest of loose cannons. I personally think it's 50/50 that he runs as an independent. The republican contest is like a soap opera.

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Response to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 02:17 AM

5. So tell me, in 2016 will we be thanking Trump for blowing up the Repubs

or bowing down to him as our new overlord. Is there any, any way he could actually win??

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Response to flamingdem (Reply #5)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 04:42 AM

9. Was there any, any way George W. Bush could actually occupy the White House?

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Response to Art_from_Ark (Reply #9)

Sat Dec 12, 2015, 06:29 AM

29. Not remotely compaable

We elected Cheney via Rove controlling W.
Trump is a one man freak show. And, until proven otherwise, I think it's a hoax. Just watch.

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Response to flamingdem (Reply #5)

Sat Dec 12, 2015, 08:47 AM

30. Six ways Trump could win

 

http://www.vox.com/2015/12/11/9891334/can-donald-trump-win

So, to answer your question, yes, of course he could win. Anything's possible.

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Response to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 03:15 AM

7. It's an interesting question because

it forces consideration of a consensus candidate.

Which, in the Republican Party, means someone just as batshit crazy as the current field.

They may as well nominate Cliven Bundy. He seems as qualified as the whole lot of the current candidates. The entire GOP convention is going to be liquored up on Islamophobia and tax cuts. It's not a delegation capable of making good decisions.

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Response to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 04:40 AM

8. Some "power entities" would have to

emerge at the convention to meet behind closed doors and whip up a consensus ticket.

Who's at that meeting to negotiate a ticket? Reince Priebus? Wiil they bring in the old party hacks like James Baker? Is James Baker still alive?

Will they be pressured to choose a ticket among the standing candidates or will they arrange to nominate someone who was not besmirched by this ugly primary campaign?

They're in Ohio. John Kasich's name will be on reporters' lips.

The Cruz crazies will say, "Hey, no way we're giving any ground here. Mainstream conservatives have lost presidential races in recent cycles. This time we want the real thing and we're not compromising."

The counter argument will come that they'll lose if they nominate too polarizing a ticket.

At a near point into the discussion, the first punch will be thrown. The meeting will deteriorate into an alley fight. Feelings bruised, eyes blackened, bones broken, furniture busted. Multiple casualties.

This party is up Shit's Creek, and there's not an oar in sight.




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Response to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 05:28 AM

10. Im not from the states

What is a Brokered convention?

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Response to brettdale (Reply #10)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 06:14 AM

12. from Wiki

In United States politics, a brokered convention is a situation in which no single candidate has secured a pre-existing majority of delegates (whether those selected by primary elections and caucuses, or superdelegates) prior to the first official vote for a political party's presidential candidate at its nominating convention.

in other words, they are sh***ting bricks over Trump

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Response to Skittles (Reply #12)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 06:18 AM

14. back in the old days, the nominees were often selected in the proverbial smoky back rooms

presumably if they decide their primary voters can't actually be trusted with the job, that's where they'll end up with this deal again.

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Response to Warren DeMontague (Reply #14)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 06:32 AM

16. kinda funny, isn't it?

these Fox News-fed idiots are going to find out who is really calling the shots

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Response to Skittles (Reply #16)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 07:45 AM

17. Indeed. And the joke is on all of them.

Because the puppeteers at the top are now discovering that the Frankenstein thing they've been building in the basement for the past 40 years doesn't take their orders anymore, too.

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Response to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 06:17 AM

13. The Republican Party itself is the disaster.

They are reaping what they have sown, bigtime... and it is breathtaking to behold.

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Response to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 06:23 AM

15. If nobody has the majority of delegates after the primaries, they're obligated to have a brokered...

convention.

If the brokered convention overturns the will of the plurality of the voters they should either prepare for a disaster in November or have somehow found a compromise candidate who is universally beloved in the republican party. I'm not sure such a candidate is alive, since if he were he'd probably be in the race right now.

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Response to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 09:00 AM

18. I don't see Cruz as being any saner than Trump and there's no way they could drag up

one of the one percenters to be the nominee without causing total abandonment of the party. I think if Trump senses they plan to do this to get rid of him, he's gone . . . to a third party run. That will give Democrats all 50 states.

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Response to Vinca (Reply #18)

Sat Dec 12, 2015, 03:35 AM

25. Cruz is, if anything, much worse than Trump. nt

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Response to Vinca (Reply #18)

Sat Dec 12, 2015, 04:00 AM

26. That's how Bill Clinton won in 1992.

Ross Perot ran third-party and got 19% of the vote.

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Response to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 10:31 AM

19. I don't know if one is worse than the other.

Both are train wrecks.

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Response to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 10:39 AM

20. A brokered convention is highly unlikely.

 

There are many states with large delegate counts that are winner take all in the Republican Party, though many more states are proportional this year.

To have a brokered convention, three candidates must win delegate in nearly all of the states through Super Tuesday, and then all three must win some of the winner take all states in order for nobody to hit the threshold of 1236 delegates.

There is a further complication of some states sending unbound delegates, which means they can vote for whomever they please.

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Response to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 10:43 AM

21. It all depends on who ultimately gets the nomination

But at the end of the day, virtually any of the Republican contenders -- save, perhaps, Ben Carson -- stands a better change in the general than does Donald Trump.

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Response to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Fri Dec 11, 2015, 12:01 PM

22. What 1-2% of their elected candidates aren't batshit crazy ill informed dittohead zombies

what outcome is worse than that? They have no candidates. No just for president, but any office. They have lots of people elected, but they suck. Most suck at unbelievable levels. If you're still voting GOP... there's your problem.

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Response to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Sat Dec 12, 2015, 04:47 AM

27. A brokered convention may be the only way to keep Trump from becoming their nominee.

And according to many of the pundits talking about this, they say the top donors in the GOP party DON'T want Trump to be their nominee.

So, they can actually force a brokered convention to keep him from becoming the nominee.
And that way, if they wind up with a brokered convention, they can choose someone else, say Cruz, who is a Senator and has some semblance of validity to speak of.
Or Rubio, who is also someone who has won an election to the Senate before.

However, the fear is that if the GOP's top donors force a brokered convention just to prevent Trump from becoming the nominee, he will break away and run as an Independent, and take his 25% of the GOP voters with him.
On the other hand, even if Trump somehow doesn't become their nominee before they hold their convention, Trump may run as an Independent anyway!

Trump has the entire GOP party by the short hairs, and they don't like it.
That's the reality they are dealing with now.

This is the problem party politics has, having to deal with a cult of personality built up around a popular ideologue.
By just threatening to run last year, Trump had them all shaking in their boots.
Now that he is the front runner in all of their polls, they have to stop him, but they have to do it in such a way as to make it appear like it wasn't such a bad thing for them to keep him from being their nominee and taking over their party.

Trump's crowds at his political rallies have a mob-like personality of their own.
He whips them in to a frenzy by saying outrageous shit.
Just like Hitler did in the early 1930s, during his rise to power.

Many people much older than me said that it could never happen here, here in America.

Yet, we're witnessing it take shape before our very eyes today.

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