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Quixote1818

(28,905 posts)
Fri Dec 11, 2015, 12:04 AM Dec 2015

Is a brokered convention a less disastrous outcome for the GOP than a Trump nomination?

The video below makes me think it would be a very bad idea for the GOP to try this but here is some punditry from Nate Silver and his colleagues: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republican-brokered-convention-donald-trump/




11 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
Yes they should risk a brokered convention if Trump is winning. Trump is a disaster for the GOP.
3 (27%)
No they should not risk a brokered convention, that would mean losing the General for sure.
0 (0%)
It would depend on how close Trump is to winning the nomination
0 (0%)
Both are equally disastrous
4 (36%)
I love lamp
3 (27%)
I don't know
1 (9%)
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Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll
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Is a brokered convention a less disastrous outcome for the GOP than a Trump nomination? (Original Post) Quixote1818 Dec 2015 OP
They are equally disastrous. virtualobserver Dec 2015 #1
I threw in the option you suggested. Thanks. nt Quixote1818 Dec 2015 #3
This will be bad for Republicans. Agnosticsherbet Dec 2015 #2
We don't need the GOP to blow apart Ex Lurker Dec 2015 #6
you do know they sucked pre-Trump, right? Skittles Dec 2015 #11
If the Republican Party blows apart, a conservative party will grow over an election cycle to two to Agnosticsherbet Dec 2015 #23
Run by reasonable people Funtatlaguy Dec 2015 #28
The republicans are so desperate comradebillyboy Dec 2015 #4
So tell me, in 2016 will we be thanking Trump for blowing up the Repubs flamingdem Dec 2015 #5
Was there any, any way George W. Bush could actually occupy the White House? Art_from_Ark Dec 2015 #9
Not remotely compaable Funtatlaguy Dec 2015 #29
Six ways Trump could win EL34x4 Dec 2015 #30
It's an interesting question because saltpoint Dec 2015 #7
Some "power entities" would have to saltpoint Dec 2015 #8
Im not from the states brettdale Dec 2015 #10
from Wiki Skittles Dec 2015 #12
back in the old days, the nominees were often selected in the proverbial smoky back rooms Warren DeMontague Dec 2015 #14
kinda funny, isn't it? Skittles Dec 2015 #16
Indeed. And the joke is on all of them. Warren DeMontague Dec 2015 #17
brettdale Skittles Dec 2015 #24
The Republican Party itself is the disaster. Warren DeMontague Dec 2015 #13
If nobody has the majority of delegates after the primaries, they're obligated to have a brokered... JVS Dec 2015 #15
I don't see Cruz as being any saner than Trump and there's no way they could drag up Vinca Dec 2015 #18
Cruz is, if anything, much worse than Trump. nt Hekate Dec 2015 #25
That's how Bill Clinton won in 1992. Manifestor_of_Light Dec 2015 #26
I don't know if one is worse than the other. NaturalHigh Dec 2015 #19
A brokered convention is highly unlikely. MohRokTah Dec 2015 #20
It all depends on who ultimately gets the nomination Act_of_Reparation Dec 2015 #21
What 1-2% of their elected candidates aren't batshit crazy ill informed dittohead zombies Johonny Dec 2015 #22
A brokered convention may be the only way to keep Trump from becoming their nominee. Major Hogwash Dec 2015 #27

Ex Lurker

(3,808 posts)
6. We don't need the GOP to blow apart
Fri Dec 11, 2015, 02:36 AM
Dec 2015

we need them to come back to reality. Like it or not, our country's political system is set up so that two parties will almost inevitably develop. It's better if they are both run by reasonable people putting forth reasonable ideas. If the GOP continues to be controlled by the fringe, or if it implodes and an even more radical party takes its place, that's bad for America.

Skittles

(152,970 posts)
11. you do know they sucked pre-Trump, right?
Fri Dec 11, 2015, 06:12 AM
Dec 2015

they've been controlled by THE FRINGE for quite some time

Agnosticsherbet

(11,619 posts)
23. If the Republican Party blows apart, a conservative party will grow over an election cycle to two to
Fri Dec 11, 2015, 12:33 PM
Dec 2015

take their place.

This has happened several times over our history.
Where are the Federalists and Anti-Federalists,
The Democratic-Republican Party of Jefferson and Madison.
Where are the Whigs.

Add to that the fact that parties change.

Democrats used to be the southern pro-slave party. Republicans were the Northern Anti-slavery party.

If the GOP blows up, they will be replaced by a conservative party that is viable in modern politics, which means a bit closer to the center. It is also possible within the scope of history that Republican Party blows apart and Democrats move a bit farther right and a new left wing party emerges.

Our founding father did not like parties and political parties have no Constitutional significance. The Two party system in our winner take all system stable. Between 1810 and 1820, thee was a period when we had only one party. A second party came into existence.

comradebillyboy

(10,119 posts)
4. The republicans are so desperate
Fri Dec 11, 2015, 12:19 AM
Dec 2015

that they may bring back Romney if Trump does well in early primaries. Trump is a wrecking ball, the loosest of loose cannons. I personally think it's 50/50 that he runs as an independent. The republican contest is like a soap opera.

flamingdem

(39,304 posts)
5. So tell me, in 2016 will we be thanking Trump for blowing up the Repubs
Fri Dec 11, 2015, 02:17 AM
Dec 2015

or bowing down to him as our new overlord. Is there any, any way he could actually win??

Funtatlaguy

(10,856 posts)
29. Not remotely compaable
Sat Dec 12, 2015, 06:29 AM
Dec 2015

We elected Cheney via Rove controlling W.
Trump is a one man freak show. And, until proven otherwise, I think it's a hoax. Just watch.

saltpoint

(50,986 posts)
7. It's an interesting question because
Fri Dec 11, 2015, 03:15 AM
Dec 2015

it forces consideration of a consensus candidate.

Which, in the Republican Party, means someone just as batshit crazy as the current field.

They may as well nominate Cliven Bundy. He seems as qualified as the whole lot of the current candidates. The entire GOP convention is going to be liquored up on Islamophobia and tax cuts. It's not a delegation capable of making good decisions.

saltpoint

(50,986 posts)
8. Some "power entities" would have to
Fri Dec 11, 2015, 04:40 AM
Dec 2015

emerge at the convention to meet behind closed doors and whip up a consensus ticket.

Who's at that meeting to negotiate a ticket? Reince Priebus? Wiil they bring in the old party hacks like James Baker? Is James Baker still alive?

Will they be pressured to choose a ticket among the standing candidates or will they arrange to nominate someone who was not besmirched by this ugly primary campaign?

They're in Ohio. John Kasich's name will be on reporters' lips.

The Cruz crazies will say, "Hey, no way we're giving any ground here. Mainstream conservatives have lost presidential races in recent cycles. This time we want the real thing and we're not compromising."

The counter argument will come that they'll lose if they nominate too polarizing a ticket.

At a near point into the discussion, the first punch will be thrown. The meeting will deteriorate into an alley fight. Feelings bruised, eyes blackened, bones broken, furniture busted. Multiple casualties.

This party is up Shit's Creek, and there's not an oar in sight.




Skittles

(152,970 posts)
12. from Wiki
Fri Dec 11, 2015, 06:14 AM
Dec 2015

In United States politics, a brokered convention is a situation in which no single candidate has secured a pre-existing majority of delegates (whether those selected by primary elections and caucuses, or superdelegates) prior to the first official vote for a political party's presidential candidate at its nominating convention.

in other words, they are sh***ting bricks over Trump

Warren DeMontague

(80,708 posts)
14. back in the old days, the nominees were often selected in the proverbial smoky back rooms
Fri Dec 11, 2015, 06:18 AM
Dec 2015

presumably if they decide their primary voters can't actually be trusted with the job, that's where they'll end up with this deal again.

Warren DeMontague

(80,708 posts)
17. Indeed. And the joke is on all of them.
Fri Dec 11, 2015, 07:45 AM
Dec 2015

Because the puppeteers at the top are now discovering that the Frankenstein thing they've been building in the basement for the past 40 years doesn't take their orders anymore, too.

Warren DeMontague

(80,708 posts)
13. The Republican Party itself is the disaster.
Fri Dec 11, 2015, 06:17 AM
Dec 2015

They are reaping what they have sown, bigtime... and it is breathtaking to behold.

JVS

(61,935 posts)
15. If nobody has the majority of delegates after the primaries, they're obligated to have a brokered...
Fri Dec 11, 2015, 06:23 AM
Dec 2015

convention.

If the brokered convention overturns the will of the plurality of the voters they should either prepare for a disaster in November or have somehow found a compromise candidate who is universally beloved in the republican party. I'm not sure such a candidate is alive, since if he were he'd probably be in the race right now.

Vinca

(50,173 posts)
18. I don't see Cruz as being any saner than Trump and there's no way they could drag up
Fri Dec 11, 2015, 09:00 AM
Dec 2015

one of the one percenters to be the nominee without causing total abandonment of the party. I think if Trump senses they plan to do this to get rid of him, he's gone . . . to a third party run. That will give Democrats all 50 states.

 

MohRokTah

(15,429 posts)
20. A brokered convention is highly unlikely.
Fri Dec 11, 2015, 10:39 AM
Dec 2015

There are many states with large delegate counts that are winner take all in the Republican Party, though many more states are proportional this year.

To have a brokered convention, three candidates must win delegate in nearly all of the states through Super Tuesday, and then all three must win some of the winner take all states in order for nobody to hit the threshold of 1236 delegates.

There is a further complication of some states sending unbound delegates, which means they can vote for whomever they please.

Act_of_Reparation

(9,116 posts)
21. It all depends on who ultimately gets the nomination
Fri Dec 11, 2015, 10:43 AM
Dec 2015

But at the end of the day, virtually any of the Republican contenders -- save, perhaps, Ben Carson -- stands a better change in the general than does Donald Trump.

Johonny

(20,687 posts)
22. What 1-2% of their elected candidates aren't batshit crazy ill informed dittohead zombies
Fri Dec 11, 2015, 12:01 PM
Dec 2015

what outcome is worse than that? They have no candidates. No just for president, but any office. They have lots of people elected, but they suck. Most suck at unbelievable levels. If you're still voting GOP... there's your problem.

Major Hogwash

(17,656 posts)
27. A brokered convention may be the only way to keep Trump from becoming their nominee.
Sat Dec 12, 2015, 04:47 AM
Dec 2015

And according to many of the pundits talking about this, they say the top donors in the GOP party DON'T want Trump to be their nominee.

So, they can actually force a brokered convention to keep him from becoming the nominee.
And that way, if they wind up with a brokered convention, they can choose someone else, say Cruz, who is a Senator and has some semblance of validity to speak of.
Or Rubio, who is also someone who has won an election to the Senate before.

However, the fear is that if the GOP's top donors force a brokered convention just to prevent Trump from becoming the nominee, he will break away and run as an Independent, and take his 25% of the GOP voters with him.
On the other hand, even if Trump somehow doesn't become their nominee before they hold their convention, Trump may run as an Independent anyway!

Trump has the entire GOP party by the short hairs, and they don't like it.
That's the reality they are dealing with now.

This is the problem party politics has, having to deal with a cult of personality built up around a popular ideologue.
By just threatening to run last year, Trump had them all shaking in their boots.
Now that he is the front runner in all of their polls, they have to stop him, but they have to do it in such a way as to make it appear like it wasn't such a bad thing for them to keep him from being their nominee and taking over their party.

Trump's crowds at his political rallies have a mob-like personality of their own.
He whips them in to a frenzy by saying outrageous shit.
Just like Hitler did in the early 1930s, during his rise to power.

Many people much older than me said that it could never happen here, here in America.

Yet, we're witnessing it take shape before our very eyes today.

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