Hotline’s 2016 Senate Rankings

[RandySF]

1. Illinois—Mark Kirk (R)
Time and time again, he’s found ways to dis­tance him­self from the na­tion­al GOP. But he re­mains a heavy un­der­dog. A hand­ful of smart votes haven’t erased the memory of a sum­mer of gaffes or his an­em­ic fun­drais­ing. And he’s still likely to face a po­ten­tially for­mid­able op­pon­ent, Demo­crat­ic Rep. Tammy Duck­worth, in the gen­er­al elec­tion. In our minds, there’s little ques­tion that the first-term sen­at­or’s seat is the most likely to change hands next year.

2. Wisconsin—Ron Johnson (R)
John­son’s more hawk­ish po­s­i­tions may provide a di­vid­ing line in 10 months that moves votes one way or the oth­er, but from here it’s hard to see how the first-term Re­pub­lic­an sur­vives no mat­ter the na­tion­al cli­mate. He de­feated Fein­gold in one of the best years ever for the GOP, but now must face an elect­or­ate with pres­id­en­tial-level turnout in a state Barack Obama won with 53 per­cent and 56 per­cent in the last two pres­id­en­tial elec­tions. If that Demo­crat­ic dom­in­ance con­tin­ues, that’s po­ten­tially more than 200,000 Hil­lary Clin­ton voters John­son would need to back him over a former three-term sen­at­or.

3. New Hampshire—Kelly Ayotte (R)
While it’s un­likely she’ll have a ser­i­ous primary chal­lenger, the Cruz let­ter angered some loc­al party act­iv­ists, and Amer­ic­ans for Prosper­ity said it was re­con­sid­er­ing its role in her race after the en­vir­on­ment­al switch. That’s bad news for a can­did­ate who has be­ne­fit­ted greatly from out­side groups chip­ping away at Has­san this past year.

4. Florida—Open (R)
The good news for Demo­crats is lib­er­al firebrand Rep. Alan Grayson, the weak­er of the two Demo­crat­ic can­did­ates, is fa­cing eth­ic­al scru­tiny and in­tern­al cam­paign woes, with his top cam­paign ad­visers de­part­ing after only sev­er­al months on the job. If Rep. Patrick Murphy emerges un­scathed from the primary, he would start with a slight ad­vant­age against a trio of Re­pub­lic­ans—Rep. Ron De­S­antis, Lt. Gov. Car­los Lopez-Cantera, and Rep. Dav­id Jolly—who have yet to make their mark in the state. But even a di­min­ished Grayson cam­paign de­term­ined to run a scorched-earth primary cam­paign could do con­sid­er­able dam­age to Murphy, and to Demo­crat­ic hopes of pick­ing up the open seat.

5. Pennsylvania—Pat Toomey (R)
Katie Mc­Ginty, who once served as Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf’s chief of staff, is the es­tab­lish­ment fa­vor­ite, but former Rep. Joe Ses­tak re­mains pop­u­lar with the rank-and-file. And small-town may­or John Fet­ter­man is a wild card who—if he is able to raise money—could be­come a prob­lem for both. One thing is cer­tain: Toomey is a for­mid­able fun­draiser who has shed his repu­ta­tion as a con­ser­vat­ive hard-liner. If any­one ex­cept Mc­Ginty faces him in the gen­er­al, Demo­crats will won­der if they can really win.

6. Ohio—Rob Portman (R)
Whichever can­did­ate can do a bet­ter job of pre­vent­ing de­fec­tions from their party’s tra­di­tion­al con­stitu­ency will have the edge. Right now, it looks like Port­man holds a small edge.

7. Nevada—Open (D)
Sen­ate Minor­ity Lead­er Harry Re­id is of course leav­ing noth­ing to chance, re­cruit­ing former state At­tor­ney Gen­er­al Cath­er­ine Cortez Masto, who will most likely face Rep. Joe Heck in the gen­er­al—though Re­id’s 2010 GOP chal­lenger, Shar­ron Angle, is flirt­ing with a bid. The last time Nevada hos­ted a Sen­ate race was 2012, a pres­id­en­tial cycle when then-ap­poin­ted GOP Sen. Dean Heller de­feated his former House col­league Shel­ley Berkley by 1 point, with 10 per­cent of the vote go­ing to a third-party can­did­ate or “None of the Above”—all as Obama car­ried the state by 6 points. Heck will likely look to that race for stra­tegic guid­ance, but Cortez Masto should have far more statewide ap­peal than Berkley.

8. Colorado—Michael Bennet (D)
Re­pub­lic­ans have a long list of vul­ner­ab­il­it­ies on which they in­tend to tar­get Ben­net, par­tic­u­larly his sup­port for Obama’s Ir­an deal, but without a chal­lenger with whom to com­pare him, that mes­saging hasn’t really star­ted. If Key­ser winds up the nom­in­ee, the former com­bat vet­er­an and Air Force re­serv­ist could help the party pack­age those ar­gu­ments.

9. Missouri—Roy Blunt (R)
Among Demo­crats this year, the Mis­souri Sen­ate race has evolved from an af­ter­thought to the trendy up­set pick of 2016. The change is thanks to Sec­ret­ary of State Jason Kander, a 34-year-old Army vet­er­an whose fresh face and hawk­ish for­eign policy have put the in­cum­bent Blunt on the de­fens­ive. Of course, Kander re­mains a long shot in a state that hasn’t backed a Demo­crat­ic pres­id­en­tial can­did­ate since Bill Clin­ton in 1996, even if Blunt’s lob­by­ist ties and long ten­ure in Wash­ing­ton make him an in­vit­ing tar­get.

10. North Carolina—Richard Burr (R)
With the Dec. 21 can­did­ate fil­ing dead­line passed, the fa­vor­ite in the primary is former state Rep. De­borah Ross. One vari­able that could have a sig­ni­fic­ant im­pact on the race is how much Hil­lary Clin­ton in­vests in the state. A fully fin­anced ground game would un­doubtedly pay di­vidends down-bal­lot, but the likely pres­id­en­tial nom­in­ee is far from cer­tain to do so.


http://www.nationaljournal.com/s/127154/hotlines-2016-senate-rankings

[Iliyah]

1. Well I hope that the DEMS don't sit this one out as well and then complain

Anywho, Dems will be out in force since its a Presidential election year, I'm pretty sure on that - HRC, oh yeah!

[yeoman6987]

2. We better win as many as possible cuz 2018, we have a lot to defend

And of course it will be a mid term.

[blue neen]

3. PA

I don't believe Toomey has shed his reputation as a Conservative Hardliner. He has built up an amazing war chest, so it will take a lot of money for the Democrats to win this one....but we definitely can!