Why Iowa will surprise a lot of folks...?

[kentuck]

I have noticed that many people view their vote like an investment. Once they "invest" in a candidate, they are slow to change horses.

Also, in caucuses and primaries, many of the same voters vote each time election day rolls around. You can rely on them being at the polls.

That is why the "favorites" might be very surprised when the votes are counted on Tuesday.

It is a significant point that Huckaby and Santorum are running again. They will maintain much of their support from previous campaigns, simply because voters have supported them before. They will take a few supporters from the "favorites". The evangelical vote is strong in the caucus of Iowa.

Add in the fact that the weather may be a factor and the favorites will lose much of their support that they think they might have right now. Many of these supporters that do not have the habit of voting will not make it to their caucus. They are simply not that enthused about the process.

Trump will probably be the biggest loser. Ted Cruz will probably win it with a very good showing by Rand Paul. Others will be lost in the shuffle.

The media will be "shocked" at the results and in their attempt to suck more money out of the campaigns to add to their bottom lines...

[geek tragedy]

1. Maybe, but for different reasons.

The Huckabee/Santorum people won't poll high enough in many precincts to get delegates and may decide to fold themselves into a different candidate's tally.

Trump is nobody's second choice, so Cruz could easily nose past him by picking up Carson/Huck/Ricky voters.

[kentuck]

2. I agree.

I think that might be the major factor in Cruz winning.

[geek tragedy]

4. Republicans right now wish they had Democrats' rules.

Democrats have a 15% threshold that forces those supporting non-viable candidates to go with their favorite of the viable candidates. O'Malley's people will have to choose between Clinton and Bernie.

The Huck and Santorum and Bush people won't be forced to choose a second time--though if they get the sense based on the speeches and crowd reax that it's a 2-3 person race they may change their mind at the caucus location.

[oberliner]

3. That's not how it works

It sounds like you are confusing the Republican process with the Democratic one.

Republicans just write their votes on a piece of paper, hand it in, and then go home.

[geek tragedy]

5. They still give speeches and there'll be peer pressure before they vote, no? nt

[oberliner]

6. The Republican presidential preference poll is relatively straight forward

Once you are in your precinct and your precinct meeting has been called to order, usually the chair of your caucus will invite anyone to speak briefly in support of their favored candidate. Once all speeches have concluded, each eligible voter in the caucus will be given a piece of paper to either write or mark their choice. After everyone has filled out their secret ballot, the votes are counted in the precinct and announced to the room. All the precincts of a county are collected by party leadership and then reported to the Republican Party of Iowa to tabulate the state results.

https://www.iowafarmbureau.com/News/2016-Farmers-Caucus/Learn-how-to-caucus

Edit to Add: Not a whole lot of peer pressure possible - certainly nothing approaching what goes on in the Democratic caucuses. Even if someone tries to pressure you, you can say sure I'll vote for Trump and then write down Cruz and no one would be the wiser since the ballots are secret (not so on our side).