Nate Silver: Walker likely to win WI, but it's not representative of the November election.

[TheWraith]

This is via Twitter.

If we put Walker's lead in WI polls into our forecasting model, it would give him about a 95% chance of beating Barrett.

Time to get out of the primary elections mindset, folks. A 6-point polling lead on the eve of a GENERAL election is very solid.

And/but, I don't really think WI will tell us much about November. The same polls that have Walker ahead have Obama winning too.

https://twitter.com/#!/fivethirtyeight

[Scuba]

1. Nate Silver tweeted that? While we're screwed then, that's it.

By the way, WTF is Nate Silver? How many days has he spent in Wisconsin in the last 16 months?

[RZM]

3. Nate Silver is a stats guru who actually got his start with baseball stats

But has since moved on to predicting political races. He's not always right, but he has a pretty good track record. This doesn't mean that Walker has it in the bank, only that a man who crunches these types of numbers all day long believes he is likely to win.

[HereSince1628]

5. The trouble with all the polling is that the correctness of the weightings are in doubt

You ask a bunch of people about their voting intentions and then you apply weights to the data that are built from assumptions, mostly about past elections. If the current election is a lot like the past then weighting can actually bend the data toward a better prediction.

When the current election involves voter sentiments that are unprecedented, the weighting is as we say in computer modeling--a WAG, a wild ass guess.

[Scuba]

6. Most polls are designed to shape opinion, not measure it.

[TheWraith]

8. Sigh.

That's typically the battle cry of people who don't like what the polls show. Sorry, but while polling can be skewed, it's also the most accurate and effective way of determining public opinion, even if that opinion isn't something one wants to hear.

[southernyankeebelle]

7. Google him. He is pretty smart and you can take that call to the bank.

[Life Long Dem]

2. Not represented because he hasn't figured out November's forecast.

Doh

[TheWraith]

9. Not representative because it doesn't have anything really to do with November.

The issues in a state recall election are so widely different from what's likely to happen in November as to have no real impact. And it's not like Wisconsin is a swing state where local issues might significantly affect the race.

[RZM]

4. I tend to believe him

I haven't followed the recall effort particularly closely, but my sense is that Walker will probably pull it out. But no matter the result, I also agree that it probably won't be particularly significant in the context of the November election. I think Obama will Wisconsin this fall.

[Woody Woodpecker]

10. Sorry Nate, but you're dead wrong in this one.

Your polling formula has been worthless....

[loyalsister]

11. That makes sense to me

Ignoring incumbency in favor of issues that a minority of voters are even aware of is a mistake. Most voters do not belong to unions and are not politically invested in the WI election.
That does not mean WI is unimportant. But, for the people who are aware, the results may be very important. I think it's possible they could have an influence in Nov, but probably won't be the primary predictor.
I think that in the end, there will be too many variables for that connection to hold up.

[muriel_volestrangler]

12. It's not just about the President - it's governors, senators and representatives

There was a swing to the lunatic right in 2010, of which Scott Walker is emblematic. If people still don't want to chuck him out now, after all the crap he's pulled, then it looks bad for November elections against Republican governors. It also looks bad for control of the House, and the Senate - if Republicans make the gains in this cohort of senators up for election that they did in 2010, they could take it.

[WillyT]

13. What Does Nate Have To Say About The House And The Senate ???

[bigtree]

14. I absolutely can't stand Silver narrating our elections

. . . and giving us the verdict before anyone has even voted. Fuck him! Let's go Wisconsin!!

[WI_DEM]

17. +1,000,000

[abolugi]

15. Come On Wisconsin!!

You can do it! GOTV and make this the upset of the year!

[WI_DEM]

16. He didn't hear about the PPP poll showing Walker up by only 3--well within the moe--Sorry Nate

turnout will decide it tomorrow.

[Bozita]

18. Three words: turnout, turnout, turnout

[Marr]

19. Not encouraging news, but I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

Sometimes the poll predictions fail, and I'm going to hope this is one of those times.

[RFKHumphreyObama]

20. The sad thing about Nate Silver is that he has a remarkable track record of being right

But that doesn't mean the voters of Wisconsin can't turn things around. Turnout and momentum is everything! Please make this his one wrong prediction Wisconsin!

[Zorra]

21. Paging Third-Way Manny! nt

[irisblue]

22. well that sucks

I'm hoping he's wrong....but given his track record...dang

[Great Caesars Ghost]

23. If Walker wins,

WI will riot.

[Comrade Grumpy]

24. I hope he's wrong. I want to see Walker rejected.

That would be the first step in taking back the losses in 2010.