U.S. trade deficit with the TPP countries cost 2 million jobs in 2015

[eridani]

http://www.epi.org/publication/trans-pacific-partnership-currency-manipulation-trade-and-jobs/

We can’t afford a trade agreement that not only allows but would intensify these harmful trends:

--The $177.9 billion U.S. goods trade deficit with the 11 other TPP countries reduced U.S. GDP by $284.6 billion (1.6 percent) and eliminated 2 million jobs in 2015.

--The 2 million jobs lost due to the U.S. goods trade deficit with TPP member countries in 2015 included 418,900 direct jobs in commodity and manufacturing industries that competed with unfairly traded goods from TPP member countries.

--The currency-manipulation-fueled trade deficit with TPP countries in 2015 was also responsible for the loss of 847,200 indirect jobs in supplier industries, and an additional 759,700 “respending” jobs. These lost respending jobs are jobs that—in a U.S. economy still suffering from low demand—would have been supported by the wages of workers who would have had jobs were trade with the TPP member countries balanced.

--The U.S. trade deficit with TPP member countries in 2015 cost 1,057,200 manufacturing jobs (52.2 percent of the jobs lost due to the U.S. trade deficit with TPP member countries). Within manufacturing, by far the largest losses occurred in motor vehicles and parts, which lost 738,300 jobs (36.4 percent of total jobs lost). Other manufacturing industries with large losses include apparel (181,900 jobs lost or displaced, equal to 9 percent of total jobs lost) and computer and electronic parts (163,900 jobs, or 8.1 percent).

--The U.S. trade deficit with TPP member countries was also responsible for significant job losses outside of manufacturing in 2015. Industries that lost jobs include health care and social assistance (204,200 jobs, 10.1 percent); retail trade (142,800 jobs, 7 percent); accommodation and food services (101,800 jobs, 5 percent); finance and insurance (42,700 jobs, 2.1 percent); agricultural industries (41,600 jobs, 2.1 percent), and education services (37,300 jobs, 1.8 percent).

--Each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia lost jobs due to the U.S. trade deficit with TPP member countries in 2015. Net job losses were greatest in California, which lost 227,500 jobs (constituting 1.38 percent of total state employment). Michigan experienced the greatest jobs lost as a share of state employment (5.12 percent)
.
--In the 10 hardest-hit states (jobs lost as a share of all state jobs), the share of jobs lost due to the U.S. trade deficit with the TPP countries in 2015 ranged from 1.83 percent to 5.12 percent of total state employment.'

--Seven of the 10 states with the highest job losses (as a share of total employment) are in the Midwest or Southeast, in states where manufacturing (especially of motor vehicles and parts) predominates: Michigan (214,600 jobs lost, equal to 5.12 percent), Indiana (103,800 jobs, 3.54 percent), Kentucky (53,700 jobs, 2.92 percent), Alabama (46,000 jobs, 2.32 percent), Tennessee (61,000 jobs, 2.19 percent), Ohio (112,500 jobs, 2.16 percent), and Mississippi (22,000 jobs, 1.86 percent). Other hard-hit states in the top 10 were Oklahoma (35,300 jobs, 2.10 percent), Wyoming (6,800 jobs, 2.34 percent), and Alaska (6,300 jobs, 1.83 percent), all of which have been hard hit by the collapse of the oil industry and related sectors.

--The U.S. trade deficit with TPP member countries in 2015 produced net job losses in all but two U.S. congressional districts. The 11th Congressional District in Michigan was the hardest-hit district in the country, ranked in terms of jobs eliminated as a share of total district employment, losing 26,200 jobs (7.66 percent of total employment). In the 20 congressional districts with the largest shares of jobs lost, net losses ranged from 11,400 to 26,200 jobs, and jobs lost as a share of overall employment ranged from 3.89 percent to 7.66 percent. Michigan had 10 districts in the top 20 job-losing districts, followed by Indiana (five districts); California (two districts); and Ohio, Alabama, and Tennessee (one district each).

[Hoyt]

1. Only if you assume a Toyota/Sony shipped to USA would have been made here otherwise.

[eridani]

2. So recalculate EOI's data then n/t

[pampango]

3. EPI's stance seems to be that currency values should be subject to TPP arbitration panels.

"The missing piece of this trade and investment deal is a set of restrictions and/or enforceable penalties against member countries that engage in currency manipulation."

I understand that the "national sovereignty" folks - largely but not entirely on the right - will howl about a 'group of foreigners' telling us how much each country's national currency should be worth. But multilateral control of currency values should be a part of a trade agreement as much as labor rights, environmental rules, business regulation, etc.

I know Obama has taken steps to address currency manipulation outside of the TPP framework. Although addressing currency values in other forums may effectively deal with the manipulation problem, I don't know why it is not part of the TPP itself.

The trade deficit with TPP countries does mean we can not "do nothing" and just ignore the situation. Agreeing for all countries to operate with common rules for currency values, labor and environmental standards, etc. is a good solution. This just may not be it.