General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsOne potential downside if Trump runs third party if he loses a brokered convention.
Most people think its a good thing for Democrats if Trump runs third party, because it will almost certainly split the Republican vote and guarantee a Democratic victory for the president. That is certainly true, but there is a downside that most don't think about. If Trump ran third party, it would probably make Republican voter turnout higher than usual as a whole. The wingnuts would turn up to vote for Trump. The moderates would turn up to vote for whoever their official nominee would be. However, both would probably vote for Republicans for the House, Senate, Governors, and local elections. We Democrats on the other hand would only have one candidate on the ballot to encourage turnout, while they have two. Trump running third party may be great for the presidency, but horrible for every single other race on the ballot. What does everyone think of this?
SCantiGOP
(14,097 posts)Afraid you might be right. If ( and it's a huge IF ) they can keep the nomination from Trump his racist followers would probably just boycott the election unless he had his name on the ballot.
Only upside would be if he tried to establish a party that would run teaparty types for other races, which would be a huge boost for Dems, especially in the red states.
tblue37
(65,985 posts)Furthermore, many of them could be so angry about being cheated by the GOP establishment that they refuse to vote at all for the GOP downticket, because they refuse to vote for anyone with an "R" by their name, even though they would never, ever vote for anyone with a "D" by their name.
Shoulders of Giants
(370 posts)Obviously he can't personally insult every single Republican all the way down to city dogcatcher. Hopefully he would spend a lot of time insulting vulnerable Republican Senators though.
tblue37
(65,985 posts)them, no matter what office they are running for. I hope he is driven to do that.
Trenzalore
(2,462 posts)I know in many states if you lose your party's nomination in a primary you aren't allowed to run as an independent in the general election.
Chan790
(20,176 posts)it's widely thought that "sore loser laws" will not withstand judicial scrutiny.
tblue37
(65,985 posts)In Michigan, one of the few states where this law applies to presidential elections as well, Gary Johnson was three minutes late to withdraw from the 2012 Republican Primary and was therefore on the ballot. As a result, he was denied ballot access as a Libertarian.[3] The Libertarian Party stated that since petitioning in Michigan is by party, not by person, a Texas businessman who is also named Gary E. Johnson would stand in and run for president as a Libertarian in Michigan, but a U.S. District judge denied their motion.[4] Gary Johnson was certified as a write-in candidate and received 7,774 votes in Michigan in the general election that year.[5]
Here is a link to an article that shows how he could run 3rd party:
http://thefederalist.com/2016/02/18/trump-can-probably-run-a-third-party-campaign-but-he-shouldnt/
SNIP
Most states deadlines to submit those signatures fall in August or September, but deadlines start as early as May, when 80,000 signatures are due in Texas. This is another opportunity for a potential Trump lawsuit: state laws that apply to federal elections are always under greater constitutional scrutiny, especially a state law that could impact the larger nationwide interest in such a huge way.
Its hard to predict what would happen if Trump were to challenge the early deadline states to push those deadlines back for him. Given his incredible polling numbers, compressed calendar, and seemingly bottomless funds, its hard to predict whether hed struggle to meet those deadlines in the first place. He may not need the legal tantrum at all.
SNIP
Trenzalore
(2,462 posts)Doesn't stop him from endorsing someone else though.