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Could the Brussels Attack Backfire for ISIS?
Historically, terrorists find that strikes against the West cost them in the long run.
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The Islamic State’s bloody bombings in Brussels might appear to be yet another victory for a terrorist group that is already riding high. ISIS leaders are gloating about their success against their Western enemies, claiming that they hit Belgium because of its participation in the anti–Islamic State military coalition (though the ease of attacking in Belgium, given its dysfunctional security services and large jihadi presence, probably played a bigger role). But other terrorist groups—such as the Palestinians in the 1970s and the Algerians in the 1990s—have found that global attacks come with damaging long-term costs: The Islamic State may pay the same price.
On the surface, the gains of an international attack like Brussels outweigh the risks. For a highly ideological group like ISIS, the Belgian deaths strike a blow to the West, fulfilling the group’s mission of taking the battle to the enemies of Islam. And such attacks counter the considerable losses the Islamic State has taken in Iraq and Syria. U.S. officials claim the group has lost 40 percent of its Iraq territory and 20 percent of what it controls in Syria from its summer 2014 peak. Ramadi fell to Iraqi forces with U.S. support as this year began, and there is talk that Mosul may soon be next. Thousands of ISIS militants have fallen in the fighting.
Such battlefield losses move the Islamic State ever further from “consolidating and expanding” the dystopian state it hopes to build. Since declaring a caliphate in 2014, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and other ISIS leaders have trumpeted their creation of a state. And by taking over an area the size of Great Britain, they’ve achieved more than any other modern jihadi group. Military losses make a mockery of this claim and strengthen the appeal of its al-Qaida rival, which has criticized the declaration as premature. As the state shrinks rather than expands, ISIS must show its followers it is fighting.
Indeed, spectacular and bloody attacks like Brussels can win the group recruits in both Europe and the Arab world. A small but significant portion of European Muslims feel alienated and bitter toward their home countries, and the recriminations and stepped-up security after each attack make this problem worse. More than 5,000 European Muslims have traveled to Syria to fight with ISIS and other jihadis. By hitting Brussels, Paris, and other European cities, ISIS makes inroads with that disaffected population. And the low opinion of the United States and the West in general in much of the Arab world also means that such attacks generate support from potential foreign fighters as well.
[center]
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The Islamic State’s bloody bombings in Brussels might appear to be yet another victory for a terrorist group that is already riding high. ISIS leaders are gloating about their success against their Western enemies, claiming that they hit Belgium because of its participation in the anti–Islamic State military coalition (though the ease of attacking in Belgium, given its dysfunctional security services and large jihadi presence, probably played a bigger role). But other terrorist groups—such as the Palestinians in the 1970s and the Algerians in the 1990s—have found that global attacks come with damaging long-term costs: The Islamic State may pay the same price.
On the surface, the gains of an international attack like Brussels outweigh the risks. For a highly ideological group like ISIS, the Belgian deaths strike a blow to the West, fulfilling the group’s mission of taking the battle to the enemies of Islam. And such attacks counter the considerable losses the Islamic State has taken in Iraq and Syria. U.S. officials claim the group has lost 40 percent of its Iraq territory and 20 percent of what it controls in Syria from its summer 2014 peak. Ramadi fell to Iraqi forces with U.S. support as this year began, and there is talk that Mosul may soon be next. Thousands of ISIS militants have fallen in the fighting.
Such battlefield losses move the Islamic State ever further from “consolidating and expanding” the dystopian state it hopes to build. Since declaring a caliphate in 2014, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and other ISIS leaders have trumpeted their creation of a state. And by taking over an area the size of Great Britain, they’ve achieved more than any other modern jihadi group. Military losses make a mockery of this claim and strengthen the appeal of its al-Qaida rival, which has criticized the declaration as premature. As the state shrinks rather than expands, ISIS must show its followers it is fighting.
Indeed, spectacular and bloody attacks like Brussels can win the group recruits in both Europe and the Arab world. A small but significant portion of European Muslims feel alienated and bitter toward their home countries, and the recriminations and stepped-up security after each attack make this problem worse. More than 5,000 European Muslims have traveled to Syria to fight with ISIS and other jihadis. By hitting Brussels, Paris, and other European cities, ISIS makes inroads with that disaffected population. And the low opinion of the United States and the West in general in much of the Arab world also means that such attacks generate support from potential foreign fighters as well.
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