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Quixote1818

(28,904 posts)
Tue Jun 5, 2012, 11:33 PM Jun 2012

This election shows me recalls based on policy are a bad idea

unless their approval is well below 50% as was the case with Davis in CA who was at 24% and lost the recall. (Edited to point this out)


1. Strong Democrats and union workers probably came out stronger than normal but moderate Dems were NOT motivated. Barrett is doing worse in most counties this time around even though Walker is NOT popular.

2. ALL Republicans were motivated big time which is showing clearly since Walker out performed what he did in 2010 in Republican areas. Moderate Republicans were feeling that policy was no reason to recall someone and spend a lot of money when they can be thrown out in just two more years so they came out big time.

3. Independents were probably only motivated to vote against Walker if they were in a Union the others also probably felt this was reaching too far since it was not about policy

4. I think this should be a lesson for the future, that recalls should only be pushed for if a crime is committed, or their aproval is well below 50%, otherwise you are just pissing off everyone who voted for the person in the first place even if they could be willing to vote the person out in a regular election. Walker's ads even pushed this thinking. If this had been a regular election I bet Barrett would have won but the re-call motivated all Republicans big time.


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TheWraith

(24,331 posts)
2. Good analysis. I think moderates and indies were a big problem.
Tue Jun 5, 2012, 11:36 PM
Jun 2012

Chances are that we lost a lot of otherwise Democratic-leaners who didn't approve of what they probably perceived as a recall for the Dems to help out labor.

shcrane71

(1,721 posts)
3. This recall was based on unprecedented voter outrage.
Tue Jun 5, 2012, 11:40 PM
Jun 2012

It was based on thousands of people protesting in Wisconsin, in February, while Faux News played clips of violent protesters in t-shirts with palm trees in the background.

The people want Walker out of there. The people don't want a right-to-work state. The election was called within the hour by NBC for Walker, and Walker won by numbers not predicted in ANY polling. Hell, Milwaukee was still voting when Barrett conceded.

I can't go on with blinders any longer. Our country doesn't have fair elections. The Carter Center has said time and again that it won't monitor our elections because we don't/won't set up our elections to ensure a fair and verifiable outcome. Call me a conspiracy nut if you want to. I'm in the company of Jimmy Carter.

Mr.Turnip

(645 posts)
7. Yes there was massive outrage... Last Year.
Tue Jun 5, 2012, 11:44 PM
Jun 2012

That outrage did not last among the less politically attuned.

And quite a few polls had Walker winning by more than he is going to ultimately win by.

shcrane71

(1,721 posts)
12. Yeah, the marquette poll? What else? The Drudge poll?
Tue Jun 5, 2012, 11:53 PM
Jun 2012

This is not a masses-are-dumbasses moment. This is an elections-in-the-US-are-rigged moment. I don't want to believe it either, but there's far too much evidence to ignore it any longer.

forthemiddle

(1,373 posts)
13. I think Mayor Barrett being the opponent was a mistake
Tue Jun 5, 2012, 11:53 PM
Jun 2012

Although he was originally my pick in the primary, the more I heard from friends and neighbors in the middle part of the state, they DID NOT want a do over.
If we had pushed this more as a referendum on workers rights (like it started out as), I really think we would have won. When Barrett was the nominee a lot of people (moderates) stated that do overs are not right. I really felt recall fatigue. Last year these same people were the loudest against Walker, but today they were against recalls.
I hope that makes sense. I don't post much (or at all until the past week) because I can't express myself very well, but I just wanted people to know what I was seeing in the middle of the state (as opposed to other posters that live in the more liberal parts of the state).

PeaceNikki

(27,985 posts)
15. My opinion is that the mistake was timing
Wed Jun 6, 2012, 12:03 AM
Jun 2012

We should have waited and timed with GE. Democrats suck outside of GE and they wouldn't have have the fodder about how much this election cost taxpayers.

We should have waited. I said it in November and I'll day it til the day I die.

Gormy Cuss

(30,884 posts)
4. Gray Davis was recalled successfully in CA and it was based on policy.
Tue Jun 5, 2012, 11:40 PM
Jun 2012
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gray_Davis

The electorate replaced him with the Terminator. It's extremely difficult to tick off enough voters and recall a governor. Walker came damn close to losing and with any luck he WILL pay attention to that.

Gormy Cuss

(30,884 posts)
11. Schwarzenegger won based on name recognition and his distance from Davis.
Tue Jun 5, 2012, 11:51 PM
Jun 2012

Davis is a Democrat. No Democrat had a chance that year but Davis' lt. governor did garner about a third of the vote. The veteran Republican pol, McClintock, didn't fare well either. Schwarzenegger won nearly half of the vote because he wasn't a pol yet he had high name recognition.

There were over 100 candidates on the recall ballot (Gary Coleman was one of the others.) That election was a complete zoo.

 

otohara

(24,135 posts)
14. CA Likes Bad Actors.
Tue Jun 5, 2012, 11:57 PM
Jun 2012

I remember it well - Total Recall, I'll Be Back...

Gary Coleman worked a few days at a radio station I worked at. Poor guy was a mess and that was in the early 80's.

Quixote1818

(28,904 posts)
8. His approval was at 24%
Tue Jun 5, 2012, 11:45 PM
Jun 2012

Walkers is at around 50%. I guess a policy recall is ok if their approval is well below 50%. Hopefully Walker will be reluctant to do anything too radical now. I hope he doesn't feel energized now.

Gormy Cuss

(30,884 posts)
17. I think that popularity rating may be the key difference here.
Wed Jun 6, 2012, 11:26 AM
Jun 2012

It's immensely difficult to recall a governor successfully. It's only happened twice before.

Mr.Turnip

(645 posts)
9. Davis was monumentally unpopular.
Tue Jun 5, 2012, 11:47 PM
Jun 2012

And he still didn't lose on the actual recall question by all that much.

He had DROVES of people who disapproved of him vote to keep him in office.

 

bupkus

(1,981 posts)
5. It's not recalls based on policy or else this example wouldn't have worked:
Tue Jun 5, 2012, 11:40 PM
Jun 2012

It isn't about anything. It's all about the MONEY.

http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Gray_Davis_recall_%282003%29

Gray Davis recall (2003)

I hope the Wisconsin recall isn't a preview of November. Big money behind Rmoney. Republicans come out en masse to support their candidate whether they like him or not. Democrats aren't motivated because our candidate has been trying to work with a bunch of assholes whose only goal is to defeat him for almost four years.

I hope I'm wrong but I don't feel like I'm wrong. These results in Wisconsin are VERY worrisome. It's all about the money. And they have all the money now.

Quixote1818

(28,904 posts)
10. As I posted above, Davis had a 24% approval and Walker has a 50% approval.
Tue Jun 5, 2012, 11:47 PM
Jun 2012


Perhaps only do a policy recall if their approval is below 50%.

Mr.Turnip

(645 posts)
16. That was one of the problems here, in the genesis of the recall Walker was down in the 30s and 40s.
Wed Jun 6, 2012, 12:10 AM
Jun 2012

However once the anger over the Public Unions issue began to simmer down his approvals entered a slow steady climb.

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