Supreme Court may be filled due to Trump nomination

[Fresh_Start]

Republicans must know that there is absolutely no chance that we will win the White House in 2016 now. They must also know that we are likely to lose the Senate as well. So the choices, essentially, are to confirm Garland and have another bite at the apple in a decade, or watch as President Clinton nominates someone who is radically more leftist and 10-15 years younger, and we are in no position to stop it.


http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2016/05/04/3775259/redstate-confirm-merrick-garland-before-it-is-too-late/

[Dawgs]

1. Trump is going to be the next President.

Why it's not obvious to everyone baffles me.

[jehop61]

3. Why are you on Democratic Underground

if you support Trumps candidacy?

[Dawgs]

6. Um, making a prediction is not supporting.

Can't be that dense, right?

[Attorney in Texas]

36. Trump sucks, but how many pundits and statisticians and candidates have underestimated him? I see no

evidence that the underestimation will not continue.

Trump crushed Jeb, Rubio, and Cruz - all of whom were stronger campaigners and started with a bigger reservoir of favorable approval than Hillary.

Don't think I'm suggesting it is a good thing that Hillary is ill equipped to face Trump (and -- BTW -- I still think she's the favorite to win both the nomination and the general election), but if we could invent a scenario where a troll like Trump gets elected, that scenario would necessitate us nominating a historically disliked and distrusted candidate who campaigns poorly and has trouble inspiring millennial Democrats and, most unfortunately, has no trouble inspiring independents to vote Republican.

[virtualobserver]

51. Approximately 100% have underestimated him.

He has started to modify his tone of voice, without modifying his rhetoric.

[nadinbrzezinski]

57. 99 percent

I was one of the lone voices. Now if you mean corporate media you are correct.

As to the tone...it was amazing to watch last night, how skillfully he went from primary to GE mode. I expected it. But even though I did, if you are a student of rethoric It was masterful

For the predictable crowd...recognizing something hardly means one supports the fascist ok

[AgerolanAmerican]

56. ... where anything but rah rah cheerleading is verboten?

taking the man seriously as an opponent does not equate to support

and it's rather bizarre in the disassociated-from-reality sense that you should think it does.

[FLPanhandle]

4. Because it's not true.

Trump has no chance in a General Election although he was perfect for the GOP primary.

[Dawgs]

7. Disagree. n/t

[Stallion]

9. ....and you make such a convincing argument

All the facts are against you-living in a little fantasy land

[Dawgs]

15. Well here are a few reasons I posted a few weeks ago.

1) Just under 6 out of 10 people don't like her, find her untrustworthy, or to be a liar.

2) Millennials don't think she's any better than the Republicans. They also aren't connected to the party.

3) Bernie supporters, Democrats or not, don't like Hillary. She may get most to vote for her against Trump, but most isn't good enough. She will need all of them.

4) Independents don't like her. They prefer Trump or Bernie.

5) Republicans desperately want to be in the WH again. They will hold their nose and vote for Trump or Cruz over Hillary. It's not even close.

6) She doesn't inspire or create enthusiasm ... compare to Bernie and Obama, or even Trump.

7) She doesn't offer any plan or message for the future. Obama had one of hope and change, and Bernie has one of economic equality.

8) She's part of the establishment. That's not a good place to be in 2016.

9) Much of her message is to be the status-quo President that will continue Obama's Presidency. Not very inspiring when all Republicans, almost all Independents, and quite a few Democrats want big change now.

10) She's not a very good candidate. She keeps things from the public (noise machine and transcripts) that make her look like she's hiding something. Her and Bill get unnecessarily angry when confronted by BLM, Greenpeace, etc. And, she changes so many positions on issues that it's hard for people to figure out what she really believes.

[Stallion]

21. 1- 5 Are Disputed By Actual Hard Evidence-The rest are like-Your Opinion

She's heading to between 320-348 Electoral votes

(oh I see someone below has seen the same evidence readily available to any one not pouting about Bernie Sanders' loss of the Democratic nomination)

[stopbush]

35. #2 is wrong. Millennials far prefer Hillary to Trump.

#3 - 80% of Sanders supporters will vote for Hillary

#4 - Indies never decide elections

#5 - at least 25% of Rs will vote for Hillary according to polls

#6 - Hillary obviously inspires people. That's how she's received the MOST VOTES of any candidate, and over 2-million more votes than Sanders. There's enthusiasm for going to rallies, and then there's enthusiasm for going to the polls. Guess which one counts in an election?

#7 - she has an extensive plan for the future. Check out her website. Bernie offers free stuff that he can't pay for. Attractive to children and the willfully ignorant, but no one else.

#8 - the "establishment" gave us those great social programs Medicare and SS. What need of a revolution when the establishment can give you that?

#9 - Ds are happy with the changes Obama has brought. Tweaks are in order, not massive changes

#10 - the funniest of all. The proof that she's "not a good candidate" is that she's slaughtering Sanders. Ha!

[Dawgs]

38. #2 is right. Millennials won't vote for either.

#3 - 80% of Sanders supporters isn't enough... if she can actually get that many.

#4 - Maybe not, but losing them like Obama did in 08 and 12 will not make it any easier.

#5 - BS. The Republicans will gladly come home to Trump after the GOP tears her down.

#6 - Hillary did not inspire new voters, that she will need to win. The one's she did get to the polls isn't nearly enough.

#7 - Ask 10 out of 10 people that aren't hard core Hillary supporters and I guarantee they couldn't come up with anything. And, they damn sure aren't looking at her website. Bernie offers "free stuff" like Social Security. Are you saying you're against Social Security? And he absolutely has a plan to pay for it. Check out his website.

#8 - You mean "free stuff"? And, please don't compare FDR to Hillary. It's insulting.

#9 - Not enough Ds are happy with Obama. And, I'm happy for you that you don't need massive changes. Unfortunately, most others do.

#10 - She was the inevitable, front-runner, establishment Democrat with ALL of the support from the party and media and she could barely beat the Independent socialist with zero name recognition. I wouldn't gloat.

[stopbush]

41. "Barely beat" Sanders.

Have you looked at the numbers?

Sheesh.

Delusional.

[Dawgs]

45. Yep. And, it's not over yet.

She won 56.8% of the states so far. She was supposed to win all but one.

A great campaigner wouldn't have gone from being up by 50 points to only 2.

[procon]

10. Show the math that supports your assertion.

I'm baffled that none of the political mavens have reached the same startling consensus as you.

Sometimes my cat baffles me, too.

[Dawgs]

17. It's impossible to use math at this point.

All anyone can do is give an opinion.

And here are some reason why I have my opinion.

1) Just under 6 out of 10 people don't like her, find her untrustworthy, or to be a liar.

2) Millennials don't think she's any better than the Republicans. They also aren't connected to the party.

3) Bernie supporters, Democrats or not, don't like Hillary. She may get most to vote for her against Trump, but most isn't good enough. She will need all of them.

4) Independents don't like her. They prefer Trump or Bernie.

5) Republicans desperately want to be in the WH again. They will hold their nose and vote for Trump or Cruz over Hillary. It's not even close.

6) She doesn't inspire or create enthusiasm ... compare to Bernie and Obama, or even Trump.

7) She doesn't offer any plan or message for the future. Obama had one of hope and change, and Bernie has one of economic equality.

8) She's part of the establishment. That's not a good place to be in 2016.

9) Much of her message is to be the status-quo President that will continue Obama's Presidency. Not very inspiring when all Republicans, almost all Independents, and quite a few Democrats want big change now.

10) She's not a very good candidate. She keeps things from the public (noise machine and transcripts) that make her look like she's hiding something. Her and Bill get unnecessarily angry when confronted by BLM, Greenpeace, etc. And, she changes so many positions on issues that it's hard for people to figure out what she really believes.

[Egnever]

20. Well

1) Trump has unfavorable ratings of 60% unfavorable vs 35% favorable Clinton is at 54% vs 42%

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/donald-trump-favorable-rating
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating

Clinton wins

2)http://www.npr.org/2016/04/25/475658752/harvard-poll-millennials-yearn-for-bernie-but-prefer-clinton-to-trump

Sixty-one percent of 18-to-29 year-olds prefer that a Democrat be elected president in the fall, while 33 percent of those surveyed back a Republican. That gap of 28 percentage points has nearly doubled since a similar poll conducted last year, when the difference was just 15 percentage points with Democrats again in the majority.

In a hypothetical head-to-head contest among likely voters, Democrat Hillary Clinton trounces Republican Donald Trump, 61 percent to 25 percent — a 36-point margin. Of those likely voters surveyed, 14 percent said they were undecided.

The poll found that millennials largely reject Trump, the leading Republican candidate. He has the highest negative ratings of any of the candidates included in the survey: 74 percent have an unfavorable view of Trump compared with 17 percent who have a favorable view of the billionaire businessman. Among millennials who identify as Republican, Trump's numbers remain 20 points underwater in terms of favorability (37 percent positive to 57 percent negative).

Hillary wins again.

3) Speculation on your part and sounds like personal bias more than anything.

There is this from that Harvard poll as well..

I think what's striking about this is, when we look at young voters who view Bernie Sanders very favorably, Clinton actually has 80 percent of that vote," John Della Volpe, the director of the Harvard Institute of Politics poll, told reporters in a conference call Monday.

Kind of undermines your point, and Hillary wins again.

4)http://www.wsj.com/articles/independents-are-souring-on-hillary-clinton-1462310510

That poll found that 20% of independents viewed Mrs. Clinton positively, compared with 62% who viewed her negatively.

Mr. Trump’s standing among independents is even worse than that of his would-be general-election rival. Just 19% of independents viewed Mr. Trump favorably in the latest poll, while 67% had a negative opinion.

Close but still a win for Hillary.

5)

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/5/3/1522849/-Conservatives-are-having-a-complete-meltdown-Enjoy

Sen.Lindsey Graham

If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed... and we will deserve it.

Again doesn't support your claim.

6) Seems like speculation on your part. I would bet there are a whole lot of women out there quite excited by the prospect of a woman president. Even if it is Hillary.

7)Again speculation on your part.

8)I will give you 8 but then being trump is not a great place to be either.

9) Arguable but the idea that wanting change = Trump is a good idea is highly questionable.

10) Agreed not the best candidate however once again we have Trump who by any metric is an even worse candidate.

Again Hillary wins

[Dawgs]

33. She won't win.

And it won't be close.

[Egnever]

39. OK nostradamas

Despite the fact that you can't point to a thing supporting your claim I guess you are likely right...

[Dawgs]

40. I pointed out 10 things. And, I could have pointed out 10 more.

It's not my fault that you won't accept them.

[Egnever]

43. They were all spurious

most of them provably false. I linked to stuff knocking nearly every one of them down. It's not my fault you have confirmation bias.

[Dawgs]

46. None of them were proven false. The election isn't until November.

She will lose because of at least 6 of those reasons. No doubt about it.

[procon]

23. And yet, she's winning with many more votes.

Baffling, indeed.

[nadinbrzezinski]

59. Don't need no fancy math

This will be decided in the usual suspects. Yup, bored reporters started playing what ifs today. The rust belt is a good pickup for trump, due to trade and well rust...Muchigan for example is a good opportunity as well as WI and OH. We were going back and forth over FL. Though a couple southern states might, and might is not very likely go to her column

National polls are irrelevant at this point. Start watching those states. And yes, PA is also in play.

The rest of us are well whatever.

Though AZ might, again high qualifies, might be in play

[Egnever]

11. The money disagrees.

[Dawgs]

18. The money disagrees NOW. n/t

[Egnever]

19. K well when that mythical time comes when it even starts to narrow.

I will be sure to take notice but right now every single predictor available shows a Dem president in 2016.

Just because you say so is not a convincing argument especially when every single way to gauge the outcome predicts the opposite.

[basselope]

26. No, they don't.

[Egnever]

29. Well hi there

Feel free to point out one that doesn't.

We already know you can't though don't we?

[LonePirate]

28. The money has disagreed for the last 18 months. I'd say a consistent, longstanding pattern exists.

[zappaman]

13. Awwww

[basselope]

22. They don't get it.

They are trapped inside a bubble that doesn't allow them too see the big picture.

Clinton has no viable path to victory against Trump.

[Stallion]

24. You Got that Backwards Hoss

people in the bubble refers to people who are not exposed to the available evidence on which to base an informed opinion. Clinton has won about 58 out of 60 matchups with Trump and the only 2 polls Clinton didn't win were Rasmussen which is the Official Bubble Poll of the Republican Party and its President Mitt Romney

[basselope]

25. You are so lost.

The GOP has spent the last 6 years preparing for this.

In most of the swing states that have setup methods to depress democratic voter turnout. To overcome this you need OVERWHELMING voter turnout.

Clinton does not and CANNOT inspire that type of turnout.

Obama lost the independent voters form 2008 to 2012 and polls taken right now are meaningless. Ask Ronald Reagan, Ask Dukakis.

What you fail to understand is that the system currently in place needs a HIGHLY HIGHLY motivated voting population to get a democrat elected president.

Thinking Clinton inspires that motivation is laughable, considering that she is basically running even with someone who wasn't even a member of the party 1 year ago.

[Stallion]

30. And Yet You Have No Evidence to Support Your Opinion

nm

[Dawgs]

31. He just gave you evidence.

Depression of Democratic voter turnout is undeniable - and a fact.

Obama lost with independent voters in 2008 and 2012 - another fact.

Ronald Reagan and Dukakis where losing/leading in the polls at this time - another fact.

Clinton is not inspiring - not a fact but pretty undeniable.

[procon]

47. She has more votes, and that IS an undeniable fact. nt

[Dawgs]

48. Hillary has the same number of votes as Trump - ZERO.

The election isn't until November.

[procon]

49. When you're losing an argument this badly, asinine retorts doom your whole narrative. nt

[Dawgs]

50. So, no intelligent response to my facts means I'm losing.

That makes sense.

[Stallion]

66. ZERO is the Number of Electoral Votes That Bernie will get in 2016

because he will never be on the General Election Ballot

[basselope]

64. In closed primaries where Trump had up to 8 rivals???

Is THIS the standard by which you are judging your vote totals?

Dear god.

[basselope]

63. Did you bother to read the post before responding with nonsense?

[trueblue2007]

27. YOU SUPPORT TRUMP??? Why are you even a member here if you support Trump?

Bad person !!!

[Dawgs]

34. Can I answer before you scold me?

A: Making a prediction is not supporting. That shouldn't be hard to understand.

[nadinbrzezinski]

60. I made that prediction months ago

They reacted the same way cause well Trump could not...turns out I was right.



As things stand right now....well I said my piece months ago. Settling down to enjoy the show. Not as good as Hamilton, more like the night of the living dead, but there is so much you can do.

[trueblue2007]

67. does it take much practise to be that snarky. Dem to Dem, you should be a little nicer.

[justiceischeap]

37. HRC gained 19% of the Republican vote last night

In a recent poll, almost 20% of the Repubs polled said they'd vote for Clinton if Trump got the nomination. Now, we don't know what will happen at the convention but if Trump gets the nod, he loses almost 20% of his base.

That doesn't bode well for a winning outcome.

[Dawgs]

42. Not a chance. They will gladly vote for him over a Clinton in the end. n/t

[justiceischeap]

65. I think you're overestimating Trumps "appeal" or HRC's lack of appeal. nt

[Agnosticsherbet]

52. I am sure he appreciates your support.

I will put my faith in Women, Black, Hispanics, the rank and file of the Democratic Party, and millennials who recognize Trump as a disaster for them.
It will be a hard-fought race, but we will win.

[Blue_Tires]

53. So you're saying Dem voters will flock to him?

Or are you saying Dem voters will stay home??

[cali]

58. Highly unlikely.

He's wildly undisciplined. His organization is no where near as proficient as hers. The repub party is split. Dems evidently have a ton on him that they haven't yet used. He's absurdly thin skinned and corporate America doesn't want him.

[LynneSin]

62. Really?

You have seen his numbers with minorities and women

We do vote and we will make sure those votes count

[KamaAina]

2. "watch as President Clinton nominates someone who is radically more leftist"?

[Fresh_Start]

5. its their world view

have some pity...

Okay, just kidding.

[lagomorph777]

44. The offer to nominate Garland should be withdrawn now

...as the GOP have no chance of winning. So when President Sanders faces a flipped Senate, he can nominate a proper liberal.

[Agnosticsherbet]

54. Someone like Ginsburg, who was appointed by her husband.

Oh yes, it will happen.

[Vinca]

8. It would make sense for them to confirm Garland, but

since when has Mitch McConnell and his GOP majority made any sense?

[procon]

12. True. They are such rigid idealogues that it would be impossible for them to change course.

This was GWB's great weakness in perpetually locking himself into these stupid "stay-the-course" announcements that locked him into one bad decision after the next to save face. McConnell's hatred of Obama has been his Achilles Heel. He cannot get out of the corner he's painted himself into by taking his uncompromisingly stubborn resistance to what was a routine duty. If he rightly does his job and holds an up/down vote on Obama's court nominee, the rabid Republican base will see it has a weakness and tear him apart in his next reelection, so he's stuck.

[ananda]

14. Lol

Trump is truly my dream GOP candidate.

Though I don't like Clinton much, she's lightyears better than Trump.

I hope the Reeps continue to block Garland so Clinton can appoint
a better SCOTUS judge.

[Javaman]

16. ted will block it. why?

if you recall, recently, trump said he was interested in ted for the supremes.

this is the real reason, I believe, delusional ted dropped out.

[Marr]

32. Or it could be that they know a Trump nominee could be considerably to the left of

a Hillary or Obama nominee on financial/trade issues. So they have nothing to gain by stalling now, and much to lose.

[Trust Buster]

55. Sorry, but this is silly. The Feceralist Society picks Republican Supreme Court nominees.

Trump will not buck them because he needs the Judicial Branch to bypass the Legislative Branch. Republicans will wait on Trump.

[former9thward]

61. Clinton will not nominate someone who is "radically more leftist".

Ridiculous. Probably more conservative, if anything.