We've got over seven billion people on this planet...

[MrScorpio]

With the weight of so many people to contend with, I suspect that many of us will see a massive population die off within our lifetimes.

Absent a comet strike or a super volcano eruption, the causes of such a die off are pretty much the same as they've always been; Disease, Famine or War… OR a combination of all three.

Competition for dwindling resources, the strain on the global financial system, the rise of radical governments even in Western democracies and the vast proliferation of arms are the fuel for the coming conflagration.

Life, as cheap as it already is, will become drastically cheaper. Fodder for our all too human penchant for self destruction. Some may see it as the natural circle of life. But when a weapon is shoved into your hand, all of that high-minded thinking goes straight into the sewer and everything is boiled down into a simple, basic matter of survival.

So, what will be the spark that ignites the flame? Who knows?

But if past is prologue, the world should be way overdue for an adjustment…

And it won't be a pretty one indeed.

[MannyGoldstein]

1. My God!

Think of how much austerity is needed to save that many people!

We'd better get right to work!

ON EDIT...

I think we can support all of those folks if we make it a priority.

[RZM]

2. What Western country has a 'radical' government?

I can't think of one, anyway.

Certainly not the US. Democrats control the WH and have a majority in the Senate. The House is Republican (for now) but I would hardly consider the House to be a 'radical' body as a whole, even if some members are very conservative.

As for the rest of the post, I think some sort of plague or celestial body impact is highly unlikely. If the population does crash it will probably be a combination of the effects of climate change and war.

[MrScorpio]

3. The fascists making their run for power in Greece is the most nascent example

If they were to succeed, I would expect the fascists in other nations to do why they can to mirror their success.

Once in power, there would be a gradual devolution from centrist governmental policies. By hook or by crook, of course.

That's the only way that fascists know how to work.

[RZM]

9. Golden Dawn is not part of the coalition government in Greece

They are one of many minor parties. They hold only 7 percent of seats in Greece's Parliament and none in the European Parliament.

And it's probably not going to the end of the end of the world if any of these parties end up as part of a governing coalition either. Jorg Haider's party rose to prominence in Austria in the 1990s and Democracy survived just fine. I understand the Austrian Freedom Party is not the same as Golden Dawn. But I wouldn't worry much about any European country falling into authoritarianism. Even these parties themselves probably know that's not an option. The best they can hope for is to get some of their platform into policy, often in matters like economics, immigration, and resistance to European integration. Ending Democracy really isn't in the cards here.

[MrScorpio]

11. My point is that it's still early...

And also, given the history of fascist political movements, I wouldn't expect any of them to abide by the normal rules of governance if they actually find a way to gain a foothold to some kind of power.

They should be watched closely, is all I'm saying.

[RZM]

14. No argument there

But one of the reasons these parties have appeal is because they aren't in power. Once Jorg Haider and the Freedom party had to own stuff like the job numbers, their popularity took a nosedive.

It's sort of the same thing with Obama now. In 2008 he didn't have to own Afghanistan and the economy. Now he does. He'll still win in 2012, but he's not going to coast like he did last time.

I would agree that one parallel with the interwar period is that desperate times increase the popularity of extreme parties. But a major difference is that in the 1930s, democracy had a rather tenuous foothold in Europe. And in Central/Eastern Europe, it had no foothold at all, save for Czechoslovakia (and they still had serious internal problems). Thus Joe Kennedy's ill though out out comment that 'Democracy is dead'

Nowadays it's a different scene. Democracy is required for EU membership and most other European countries are democracies as well. It's a completely different climate, not to mention the fact that fascism (and communism) remain largely discredited because of the legacies of WWII and the postwar period. This ain't your grandfather's political climate. Far-right parties present almost no threat to democracy. Their main effect of their growth will be what I mentioned in my post above - influence on policies regarding the economy, immigration, and European integration, which not coincidentally are the areas in which their positions have appeal outside of the far right.

[MrScorpio]

17. Let's hope that the measures stand...

But keep a wary eye on them anyway.

[Spider Jerusalem]

6. I'm not so sure about that

as far as "plague", well...drug-resistant TB? All sorts of other increasingly antibiotic-resistant diseases?

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-504763_162-57449191-10391704/1-in-10-cases-of-tuberculosis-in-china-are-drug-resistant/

I think assuming that there won't be epidemic disease is kind of optimistic.

[RZM]

16. It probaby is optimistic

And maybe I'm speaking from a Western perspective here. The West will probably have the technology and the capital to minimize the effects of disease. The rest of the world might be a different story.

[Spider Jerusalem]

18. Disease doesn't really respect borders

"the West" accounts for about one-sixth of the human population, or a bit less. And given that climate change is going to create a lot of regufees fleeing from those non-Western parts of the world in the wake of crop failures and famines and potential wars? I wouldn't bet on it.

[RobertEarl]

4. Solar Flare

Earth got hit with a big one in @ 1865 and it burned down all the telegraph lines. Which were the only lines back then. Google: Carrington Effect

Now, if you aren't on a line and a big solar flare hits, you wiil be ok at least for a while. But if you are like most of the grid-tied world it will mean at least several weeks of no electricity.

The question is, how long can we survive as a country without electricity?

[MrScorpio]

5. That's one kind of natural occurrence

The proceeding eventualities would have devastating consequences for life on this planet.

I'd think that we'd be able to find a way to cope, but this or any other country wouldn't look the same for long.

[RobertEarl]

12. Yeah, it is natural

But the effect upon our civilization, which isn't natural, would be unnatural.

People not hooked on the grid, @ 3B, could go on as if nothing happened.

Here, our nuclear plants would probably go Fukushima. Which might do in all life, so there is that.

[MrScorpio]

15. We'd learn to start glowing in the dark.

You're right, that would hose us all.

[marybourg]

20. Not very long here in Phoenix

in the summer.

[4th law of robotics]

7. I'm rooting on supervolcano or asteroid strike

[bhikkhu]

8. A reduction in the birthrate could reduce population to sustainable levels

...overt the course of three generations or so, without the need for any kind of massive disaster. Keep in mind, most people alive today will be dead in 60 years or so of natural causes, if nothing else. The population of the planet in 2100 will be mostly dependent on the behavior of people who aren't here yet.

Our current habit of massive casual consumption, and our mindset of fear of plagues, famines, disaster, genocides, etc, may have as little resonance to those not yet born as the struggles between the catholics and the protestants (that tore up Europe in the 1600's) have to us.

[MrScorpio]

10. How's the trend in population levels over the last twenty or so years looking?

It would be helpful to figure out if it's leveling off or not right now.

Unless there's a concerted effort globally to reduce the actual birthrate, we should expect those levels to rise still.

[bhikkhu]

13. Actually, its trending ok in general

http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=sp_dyn_tfrt_in&tdim=true&dl=en&hl=en&q=world+fertility+rates#ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=sp_dyn_tfrt_in&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=country&idim=country:USA EU:CHN:FRA:JPN&ifdim=country&tdim=true&hl=en&dl=en

you can look at the overall rates there, or look at any country individually.

[RKP5637]

19. I agree with what another poster said, a plague or something like

that will be a catalyst. Also, with all of the weapons research that goes on eventually there will be F up and who knows what will be unleashed.

Even given those not happening, eventually the weight of the infrastructure will sink many. Earth does not have an endless supply of resources in a finite space. If we keep on F'ing uncontrollably, endless babies and irresponsibly, people will die off, eventually, that's what will happen, and is already happening in countries.

I hate to sound so damn pessimistic, but I just do not see a very good scenario for humanity in the 21st century given the present course. Maybe I've just been around too long. Shit happens and it will happen again.