State of the Polls Right Now: Trump Vs. Clinton

[Doctor Jack]

We get quite a few polls here and there posted on this forum but rarely do we get a big picture. I think it would be helpful if we take a look at the averages from the Huffington Post to see where things stand right now.

National Polls: Clinton +4.7



Clinton 44.3%
Trump 39.6%

This gap has been widening between the candidates for the past week or two following trumps bounce from wrapping up the nomination. The closest Trump ever got to Clinton was at Clinton +3 on May 16th. Her lead has since increased by over 50% and is roughly the margin that Obama won by in 2012. Also important to keep in mind that besides a few days in May, Trump's average level of support has always been in the mid to upper 30's. His peak support has been at 43%, which was back in January but the highest it has been since clinching the republican nomination is at 40.8%. Clinton's max support has been at 51.3%, which was all the way back in 2015 but most recently the max has been at 49.8% back in early April.


Electoral Vote:

Clinton 332
Trump 206

Right now the map is actually identical to what we saw as the final result of 2012.




The swing states show the following:

Florida: Clinton +3
New Hampshire: Clinton +3
Ohio: Clinton +4
Pennsylvania: Clinton +4
Virginia: Clinton +3
Wisconsin: Clinton +8
Iowa: Clinton +7
Michigan: Clinton +7

North Carolina: Trump +2


Trump has also claimed he is competitive in typical democratic strong holds, which doesn't appear to be anywhere close to reality.

California:Clinton +18
New York: Clinton +19

But two of the red states that some dems thought might be in play do appear to be close

Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +5

[MadBadger]

1. I expect a bump for her in the coming week

Getting presumptive status and this judge business

[frazzled]

2. It will become much wider after

a substantial number of Sanders supporters come to terms with the primary and eventual move over into the Clinton camp. (I know there will be some dead-enders who will go the Stein or Johnson or Trump route, but I don't think it will be at all significant.)

Anyway, all presidential polls that come out before the end of the convention season are pretty useless. Wait until after Labor Day to get serious about polls.

I wish we could have a separate forum called "Polls."

[Doctor Jack]

3. If 70% of so of uncommitted Sanders supporters back clinton, she will win by double digits

I think Charlie Cook did an analysis of this recently. Of all of the Sanders supporters that haven't committed to back Clinton (undecided or going for a third party in the current polls), only 70% need to move to clinton for her to be up by about 10 points. Since virtually none are going to go to trump, there is a massive opportunity for her to take a massive lead over trump.

[frazzled]

6. Oh, I think some will go for Trump

I read an article today (was it in the Times or elsewhere? can't remember, I've looked at so many) in which the reporter quoted an attendee at the Sanders speech as saying they would vote for Trump rather than Clinton. But these are the real outliers. I expect most people to come to terms and do the right thing eventually. It may be a last-minute come-to-Jesus moment, but it will happen.

[Doctor Jack]

7. Sure, a few will

But that happens in every election. I'm sure some clinton supporters backed McCain in 2008 or Romney supporters went for Obama during that same year. It always happens but likely not enough this year to make any kind of impact. I'm sure democrats and sanders supporters will only make up a small fraction of trump's overall numbers.

And on sort of a side note, remember during the republican primaries this year where trump and the media claimed that a lot of trump's supporters were independents and even democrats? Total bullshit. Experts that looked into it found that nearly everyone that voted for trump in the primaries were people that have been hardcore republicans their entire lives. There is no evidence of any mass defection of independents or democrats to trump.

[Arkansas Granny]

4. That gap will continue to widen in the coming weeks.

Hillary is going to gain endorsements while the Republican higher ups are withdrawing theirs from Trump. He's a total train wreck.

[Doctor Jack]

5. And what does it say about trump that he can barely break 40% on his best days

He is hovering around Walter Mondale/George McGovern territory right now.

[SunSeeker]

8. Great graphics. Thanks.

[edhopper]

9. Look at that graph

it shows that Hillary's upside is much higher than it is now.
But Donald has plateaued about as high as he will go.

[AngryAmish]

10. 🇲🇱🇲🇱🇲🇱. Hillary will crush him 🇲🇱🇲🇱🇲🇱

[hfojvt]

11. we do so love to predict the future

rather than wait for it. Then again, I chose to read this post.

I still think all of the months of media narrative helps to make it a self-fulfilling prophecy as 5-7% just want to be on the winning side or to do what "everybody else" is doing. So I hope they keep pounding the "Democrats are gonna win" drums for another 5 months (is that all?)

One trouble is - that 80 of those electoral votes look winnable for Trump - Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Florida, 80 electoral votes. Enough to give Trump 286 electoral votes.

Trump could still make a play for one of those states by picking Rubio or Kasich as Veep. I still would like Hillary to pick Brown to appease the Democratic Wing and also to nail down Ohio.