In worst-case-scenario, global warming makes Middle-East uninhabitable by end of century

[DetlefK]

http://gizmodo.com/the-middle-east-could-become-too-hot-for-human-life-wit-1738801004

"Uninhabitable" in the sense of "any human taking a step outside will die of heat-stroke".

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Another baseline they had to establish? The exact level of heat and humidity a human could reasonably be expected to survive on a regular basis. They used a type of measurement called “wet bulb” heat, which is a complex concept that the authors simplify by describing it as “a combined measure of temperature and humidity, or ‘mugginess.” They pegged the maximum survivable temperature at six full hours of 35 Celsius or 95 Fahrenheit. Anything above that “would probably be intolerable even for the fittest of humans,” the write.

Which is what makes their projections so disturbing. Using RCP 8.5–aka the IDGAF scenario where emissions continue at the current rate–their model showed that a large portion of the Persian Gulf would exceed that maximum threshold of wet bulb survivability, especially over the Red Sea and the Gulf.

...

In this super-heated future, it would be extremely dangerous to spend time outside. “Even the most basic outdoor activities are likely to be severely impacted,” say the authors, who note that the conditions would have “severe consequences” for millions of pilgrims who make the Hajj to Mecca, which already uses substantial cooling technology like misters and air conditioners to cool pilgrims, like those seen below.

...

And even for people who aren’t spending much time outdoors, access to air-conditioning will be absolutely crucial–which puts the poor at particular risk. “Under such conditions, climate change would possibly lead to premature death of the weakest–name, children and elderly,” they write.

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http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n2/full/nclimate2833.html


Look at the maps.
Iraq is fucked.
Southern Iran is fucked.
Eastern and central Saudi-Arabia is fucked.
The small arabian states along the Persian Gulf are fucked.
You think the drought that drove the Syrians into open rebellion against Assad was bad?

[snooper2]

1. hmm, interesting- So if the fundies insist on staying because "holy", is that a bad thing?

[DetlefK]

3. Islamic fundamentalists aren't limited to the Middle-East.

Yeah, it's pretty cynical. But the situation is so fucked-up that it's hard not to be cynical.

The syrian drought won't rebound.
Agriculture in a politically unstable Iraq (I predict a kurdish rebellion once ISIS is defeated) will suffer.
At least Iran stretches so far north that only parts of the country will be affected.

Saudi-Arabia?
On the one hand, Saudi-Arabia is building a colony in eastern Africa (with agricultural land effectively stolen via bribery) to supply the homeland with food. And they are trying to diversify their economy. On the other hand, they scaled back their goal for renewable energy from 50% to 10%. And the plan how to diversify their economy was written by trickle-down Wall Street-consultants.



How will this affect Islam? Very hard to tell.

Agriculture suffering, people out of work, no hope except leaving or trusting that Allah will save you. I predict an even stronger polarization between moderates and extremists.

[brush]

2. 95 degress Fahrenheit?

I live in Las Vegas and temperatures are regularly in the 100s in the summer.

95 degrees seems a stretch as to be uninhabitable.

Am I interpreting that wrong?

[DetlefK]

4. Las Vegas is dry heat. The estimates are for moist heat where sweating no longer works.

[braddy]

5. Like Houston, where I grew up and went to schools without air conditioning and 32 kids in the room.

[csziggy]

7. Like Florida where I grew up with no air conditioning

In our house or in school. Where afternoon showers might have dropped the temperature from the mid 90s to the upper 80s but increased the humidity from 80% to 90%. Where in the middle of the night the temperatures might have gotten down to the 70s but the humidity was so high it would condense on everything - skin, clothes, furniture, walls, etc.

[cemaphonic]

8. Las Vegas has a couple things going for it

1) Reliable freshwater supply.

2) A service economy based largely around tourism (I'm including gambling and the convention trade here). It doesn't really depend on the economic activity of the local hinterland (which is mostly uninhabited desert in all directions) the way that most cities do.

Places like Dubai might still be viable, but a lot of the Middle East is already marginal pasture or agricultural land, and losing that would displace a lot of people, and dry up the economic base of the nearby cities as well.

[brush]

9. Thanks for the wider perspective

So it's more about the scarcity of water, and ironically, the mugginess rather than the temperature because 95 degrees doesn't seem that bad.

[smirkymonkey]

6. Ugh, I can't imagine living in that kind of heat and humidity.

Especially without air-conditioning. I was also thinking this could create an even worse refugee crisis than we are seeing now. Where will they all go?