State of the Polls Right Now: Trump Vs. Clinton

[Doctor Jack]

I have a bit of an obsession over polls and tracking them closely, so I figured I would see where things are again this week, with you fine folks.


Nation Wide: Clinton +5.6



Clinton=44.6%
Trump=39%

Clinton has gained a point in the averages since last week, when she was up by 4.7 points. Trump is down by .6 points and Clinton is up by .3. Remember since these are averages, that is not insignificant movement.


Electoral Vote: Clinton 338 Trump 200 (+6 Clinton since last week)




The swing states show the following:

Florida: Clinton +3
New Hampshire: Clinton +3
Ohio: Clinton +4
Pennsylvania: Clinton +4
Virginia: Clinton +3
Wisconsin: Clinton +12 (up from +8 last week)
Iowa: Clinton +7
Michigan: Clinton +7
Kansas: Clinton +7

North Carolina: Trump +2


Trump has also claimed he is competitive in typical democratic strong holds, which doesn't appear to be anywhere close to reality.

California:Clinton +18
New York: Clinton +19

But three of the red states that some dems thought might be in play do appear to be close

Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +5
Utah: Trump +3

[MFM008]

1. Dr.

Love the electoral map, I think Arizona is a big question.
For some reason, I think McCain is in danger, frankly I think
they will lose the senate at least.

[Doctor Jack]

2. The dems are already tying him to trump

I heard they made an ad juxtaposing trump's call for a wall with McCain saying "build the dang fence". They are working like hell to make McCain "The Trump Candidate" in that race.

I love the spine that the democrats have these days.

[longship]

3. I agree about that KS poll. WOW!

I am thinking that it cannot be correct. If it is, indeed it is a huge WOW!!!



R&

[Doctor Jack]

4. It is just one poll

It is the only poll from Kansas from the year so I could be wrong but if it is even remotely possible that Trump is polling at 36% in Kansas, we might be painting a lot more of the map blue than we expected.

[longship]

8. Alas, statewide KS presidential polling is not likely to be repeated.

It is so reliably GOP these days. Funding such polls would be a tough call. I would label that one "suspect".

My best to you.

[Doctor Jack]

11. Maybe but if other states, like Missouri and Utah start showing significant movement towards Clinton

There might be a lot of polling going on in places like Kansas. Clinton being ahead in Kansas is probably on a few pollster's radars now. If they start seeing other red states slipping from the republican's grasp, they will probably start digging deep into the preferences in Kansas.

[longship]

12. Let's hope so.

[yellowcanine]

5. Still can't believe Kansas but there it is - solid blue, at least for now.

I also think Arizona is going to end up blue. And NC.

[Doctor Jack]

6. NC almost certainly. Arizona, Georgia, and Utah should be gone after hard

I don't know if Clinton will win all 3 of those but I would give even odds on winning at least 1 and that would be a massive defeat for the republicans.

[woolldog]

7. Survey USA has Clinton dead even

with Trump in Utah.

[Doctor Jack]

10. True but there is also a reliable pollster showing him with a 7 point lead last week

So he is averaging about a 3 point lead. Although to be fair, even a 7 point lead in Utah is horrendous for a republican presidential candidate. Romney won Utah by 50 points in 2012. If going from +50 to a virtual tie isn't a canary in the coal mine for the republicans, I don't know what is.

[Doctor Jack]

9. Keep in mind, a lot of potential swing states haven't been polled yet

Some of that map is based on extremely old polling or just flat out assuming certain states will stay red. Places like Missouri, Texas, Arkansas, Indiana, Nebraska, and Alabama could all possibly be in play. Some polling from earlier this year indicated that Trump is doing very poorly, for a republican, in most of those states.

They already look like they are going to lose or have to drop significant resources in states no one ever thought would be in play. If polls from these other red states show close races, especially texas, talk of a coup at the convention might start getting a lot louder.

[Frances]

13. I was born and raised in AL

I subscribe to my hometown newspaper

I would love it if AL went for Clinton, but I am 99.99% sure that AL will NOT vote for Hillary

[Doctor Jack]

14. There was a poll a few months back showing a tie there

I think because the AA popluation is extremely motivated to stop trump. I dont know if the black vote is large enough but they may make it a lot closer if they turn out en masse

[Frances]

18. The black vote is NOT large enough by itself

and the white vote that is not for Trump is not large enough to combine with the AA vote to go for Clinton

I wish it were not so

[Doctor Jack]

22. My god, how large is the redneck vote in that state?

All minorities and non-bigoted whites and it still isn't close to winning? Even Utah and Kansas are moving towards the blue column this year. Alabama must be rough.

[Frances]

29. Yep

[Stallion]

15. PPP Has 2 Great Senate Polls in Arizona and New Hampshire (Net +2)

Hassan leading Ayotte

Kirkpatrick leading McCain

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ppp-d-24663

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ppp-d-24662

[Doctor Jack]

16. Was Arizonia senate seat originally on the dems radar?

I know the dems have quite a few they think they can pick up since at least last year. Was McCains seat one of them or is this a bit of breaking news?

[Stallion]

17. I Think This is About 3rd Arizona Poll Showing at Least a Close Race

so if it wasn't before it is now

[roamer65]

19. I think Gary Johnson is going to do well in the western red states.

You may see some of those go (D) in November in a three way race.

Utah is the tip of that iceberg.

Remember Ross Perot did well out west in 1992.

I do believe that HRC will only get a plurality of the popular vote.

[demtenjeep]

20. kansas has not voted D in a very long time but we have an idiot gov

and people are pretty pissed off

i heard the local news the other night saying HRC was leading

tRump did not win here in the primaries

[a kennedy]

21. Love these polls also Dr. Jack......

Keep em coming.

[Doctor Jack]

23. This is what makes sense to me in elections and what I like to talk about

Cold, hard numbers. I am a man that likes things very logical. I can't stand political pundits or people's "gut feelings" on politics or historical comparisons (i.e. "trump is like reagan" or "the convention will be like 1968&quot . Leave the emotions and baseless predictions out of it. The only thing that makes any sense to me in such matters is math and science. Polls aren't perfect but they are a hell of a lot better than what Chris Matthews, Lawrence O'Donnell, Wolf Blitzer or Hew Hewitt "feel" is going to happen.

[HarmonyRockets]

24. No, wait a minute.

I was told by numerous people in other threads on this website that polls showed that Hillary didn't stand a chance against Trump.

[TeamPooka]

25. GOTV works starts now people. Phone banks, canvas, volunteer. nt

[Doctor Jack]

26. Well trump has none of that so I'm not too worried

Trump says he doesn't need any of that and so, doesn't have any. Even a half assed GOTV effort on the part of the dems would lead to trump getting crushed in november.

[TeamPooka]

27. Always first draw fresh breath after outbursts of vanity and complacency. - Franz Kafka...

When a great team loses through complacency, it will constantly search for new and more intricate explanations to explain away defeat. Pat Riley

There is no place for arrogance or complacency in racing because you are up there one minute and on your backside the next. Tony McCoy

“Complacency delivered us into the hands of evil greedy men like Cheney.” ― Sonia Rumzi

[Doctor Jack]

28. Well I'm going to vote

And I'm not in charge of the democrat's GOTV campaign and I have no plans to help beyond donating, because I would be of little use. If the democratic party had my attitude or trumps, that would be an issue but they clearly don't and have much smarter people than I running the show, so I'm not worried.

[denbot]

30. Nice post.

Kick