Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)
Sat Jun 18, 2016, 10:45 PM Jun 2016

Where Would You Put The Odds of Trump Being the Republican Nominee?

About 5 weeks ago, I would have said 100%, without a doubt. But now, I am pegging it at around 70%. One or two more bad weeks for Trump and the GOP and I think he will have a full blown mutiny on his (very tiny) hands.

But, friends, I want to know, what do you think the odds are that Trump actually makes it through the convention without being overthrown?

17 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Where Would You Put The Odds of Trump Being the Republican Nominee? (Original Post) Doctor Jack Jun 2016 OP
About 95% BigDemVoter Jun 2016 #1
20% but only because Republicans picked a guy with dementia once before. L. Coyote Jun 2016 #2
I was just thinking about this. The Republicans are really in a pickle. Joe the Revelator Jun 2016 #3
They would probably be much better off long term if they ditched him Doctor Jack Jun 2016 #4
In the same vein, if they let them have their way this cycle.... Joe the Revelator Jun 2016 #7
They should just start acting like the Republicans from 20 years ago Doctor Jack Jun 2016 #10
I'd put them at youuuuuuuuuuge. n/t PoliticAverse Jun 2016 #5
Magic 8-ball says 8%. hay rick Jun 2016 #6
Zero. peace13 Jun 2016 #8
Right now? 60% Warpy Jun 2016 #9
The problem is if they dump him, he is likely to run as 3rd party. He wouldn't pnwmom Jun 2016 #11
He is like asbestos Doctor Jack Jun 2016 #12
LOL. You are right! pnwmom Jun 2016 #13
But he denies that asbestos is dangerous LastLiberal in PalmSprings Jun 2016 #15
50 percent. roamer65 Jun 2016 #14
99.9. Warren Stupidity Jun 2016 #16
stealing the nomination from trump would be the final blow to the GOP beachbum bob Jun 2016 #17

L. Coyote

(51,129 posts)
2. 20% but only because Republicans picked a guy with dementia once before.
Sat Jun 18, 2016, 10:48 PM
Jun 2016

And they still think he is a saint, so why not nominate another one?

 

Joe the Revelator

(14,915 posts)
3. I was just thinking about this. The Republicans are really in a pickle.
Sat Jun 18, 2016, 10:54 PM
Jun 2016

Good.

But. Yeah, I think they may be stuck with him barring another week like last week.

Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)
4. They would probably be much better off long term if they ditched him
Sat Jun 18, 2016, 10:56 PM
Jun 2016

Let the crazy old "poorly educated" racists sit at home and pout on November 8th, lose this election, but be able to save face in 4 years.

 

Joe the Revelator

(14,915 posts)
7. In the same vein, if they let them have their way this cycle....
Sat Jun 18, 2016, 10:58 PM
Jun 2016

they can make a clean break of the tea party insurgent types after Trump gets blown out. It will be a mandate for change.

Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)
10. They should just start acting like the Republicans from 20 years ago
Sat Jun 18, 2016, 11:30 PM
Jun 2016

Sure, they were terrible back then too but compared to what we have today, every Republican seemed like the 2nd coming of Lincoln. I heard some speech experts from George HW Bush and Bob Dole from back in the early 90's. They sounded like Winston Churchill compared to Penisfart McDumbfuck...I mean Trump. Just moderate, act normal and professional, and they would do a lot better. They need to purge the Tea Party though. Just say "fuck it", block their candidates and ideas, move more to the center and replace the lost tea party vote with votes from moderates. The problem is that they have moved so far to the right that their appeal is too limited. It didn't work, so ignore people like Ted Cruz that say the party needs to be even more right wing (somehow) and move back to the center.

There could be a huge silver lining to this election for them, if they seize the opportunity. Tea Party candidates will likely be decimated this cycle. Just let them go. Run much more moderate candidates in 2018 and 2020, and let the Tea Party die.

Warpy

(110,909 posts)
9. Right now? 60%
Sat Jun 18, 2016, 11:19 PM
Jun 2016

He's got the star quality that party likes to go for. They're also looking at his popularity with the base, the morons they've courted for years and now think are the majority. If he can reassure them that he'll take orders once he's in office, he'll be the nominee.

Since I consider that last proviso a long shot, I'm only giving him 60%. The alternative would be having a convention that's such a shambles that they field no naitonal candidate.

I also think Johnson will be enough of a factor that he'll get his clock cleaned in the general.

pnwmom

(108,925 posts)
11. The problem is if they dump him, he is likely to run as 3rd party. He wouldn't
Sat Jun 18, 2016, 11:34 PM
Jun 2016

have to run in all states to cause a big problem for them.

roamer65

(36,739 posts)
14. 50 percent.
Sun Jun 19, 2016, 12:40 AM
Jun 2016

They are going to mess around with the convention rules pretty heavily to try to stop him.

 

beachbum bob

(10,437 posts)
17. stealing the nomination from trump would be the final blow to the GOP
Sun Jun 19, 2016, 08:11 AM
Jun 2016

I'm not sure they are prepared for the aftermath of losing 40% of their voting base.....but letting trump go forward will have a similar effect....I am so glad they have trump and we have hillary

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Where Would You Put The O...