Van Jones is freaking out re: Brexit. Says it means Trump can win in the US

[Triana]

https://www.facebook.com/vanjones/videos/10154278077469910/

[OKNancy]

1. He's often wrong. LOL

[mainer]

2. I agree with him. The polls under-report the true behavior of people in polling booth

I fear Trump really does have a chance, after this Brexit vote.

[LonePirate]

3. Trump benefits greatly if Brexit leads to a large, sustained global economic downturn

All of this is the stuff of nightmares.

[treestar]

12. The average American voter

will have forgotten about the UK by next week, let alone November. If they are even paying attention to it now.

[a kennedy]

22. I'm hoping your correct in this statement....the average american voter will have forgotten

about the UK by next week. Whew, love the attention span of most of these people.

[karynnj]

24. They might have forgotten the UK and might never have heard of Brexit, but if the worst fears happen

and it causes a recession in the UK ... and possibly the EU. This will put a drag on the US economy which is approaching the end of period of growth. Just as the US financial crisis pulled the world into a deep recession in 2008, this could pull the US economy down. Even at this point, (though it makes NO sense) Trump is preferred on the economy - http://pollingreport.com/wh16.htm This in spite of Obama having saved the economy.

The US has a US centric view of the world crediting (or blaming) the US for everything that happens in the world. While the US is the most powerful country, some good or bad things happen that we did not cause or could not have controlled.

On Brexit, you could argue that the refugee crisis was a proximate factor in causing this. For that, you could blame everyone from Bush (for starting the mess), Assad (for all he has done). This might explain the timing of the bizarre State Department letter -- where some papers have noted that the SD dissenters are not out of line with Clinton's public positions.

Ignoring politics, what is really not being said is that Bush, both with the Iraq invasion and the whole financial crisis that he, at minimum exasperated by greatly increasing the allowed leverage rate, might be to blame for destroying the EU, if Britain leaving causes it to lose other countries.

[treestar]

25. People keep saying that

but I have a hard time with the concept that this one decision by another country can bring our economy down. Their leaving is said to bring the EU down, but how and why? It's still big and bigger than they are now. And the EU is our biggest trading partner, etc. Still why would the EU have to shut down and have a big recession over it? The only answers I get are that I am uninformed and dumb, which isn't helpful in being convincing. Our economy is extremely large and we are the only superpower so our being so vulnerable to the UK doing this doesn't compute.

[karynnj]

34. You are neither dumb or uninformed -- as can be seen by your many posts

Our economy is very large, but we are part of a global economy. Anyone who has a balanced portfolio of mutual funds - the way people who are middle class or upper middle class - typically invest, will see their portfolio decrease because they have some international stocks that are impacted.

I think that the UK could be driven into a recession.

Their economy has not fared as well as ours since 2008 - nor has the European economy. Much of this is due to Obama succeeding, early on, in passing the stimulus package and other jobs bills when we had 60 or at least 58 Senators. Their response was more one of austerity. Here is a graph of the US, Germany and UK comparing GDP over time. Look at the period since 2007/2008 - the US recovered MUCH faster than either of these economies - and neither has yet to get back to the per capital GDP they had. https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=ny_gdp_pcap_cd&idim=country:GBR:USA EU&hl=en&dl=en Note that while the US did far better in 2009/2010 - since then all have moved at about the same rate. (edited to say that DU's code somehow messes up the url - so you do not get Germany. I can not figure out the problem. )

The reason for the recession could be things like uncertainty with regards to their European markets. All the barriers eliminated by being part of the EU may be restored. The hard part that the UK faces now, with a lame duck PM, is that there are huge organizational changes that need to be made that each could impact the economic viability of companies that receive or send things to EU countries. Another question - and here I am on shaky ground - is whether this could make the London financial center less attractive. The one thing I do know is that uncertainty is a negative -- and until things get reworked there is big uncertainty.

Uncertainty means it will be harder to get loans and they will be priced higher. Anything they buy overseas will cost more for them as the pound has fallen very significantly against the dollar, yen and (to a smaller degree) the euro. There will likely be some businesses for whom this is the final straw.

As to the US, the Dow Jones is down by about 500 this moment - that is about 2.8%. My guess is that the first reaction is likely an over reaction and obviously this is nothing like 2008 when the markets plummeted over the entire last quarter in what could have been a death spiral -- that Obama's measures stopped. Here, it will matter how the rest of the world responds.

[RAFisher]

27. I think they have a problem with polling in the UK. The 2015 General Election was way off too.

I don't see anything like that going on here in the states.

[Bluenorthwest]

4. Van is a bit America-centric. He's also not always correct.

I first encountered Van when he worked for Arianna Huffington for Governor. I did not agree with his choice of candidates then either.

[Person 2713]

5. This empowers his base and gives credence to his positions UKIP check them out

[spanone]

6. why, do the brits get to vote in our election?

[Triana]

7. They don't. Jones is referring to a broad-based shift against multiculturalism and immigrants

among other things - the type of ignorant fear-mongering that Trump supporters spread and believe, and a large part of what evidently drove the Brexit "leave" vote.

[treestar]

13. Maybe but the UK is 87% white and we are 69%

So Trump does not have as many people to work with. And we are not as nationalistic, being built up as an immigrant nation. We have xenophobes (whose own ancestors were immigrants) but they might not be as rabid. Each European country has its own language and culture going back to the middle ages and so they are more nationalistic than we, a nation of immigrants, are likely to be.

[Mass]

19. This shows that Van Jones does not know anything about England in particular.

They have always been very reluctant entering the Union to start with, and were not completely in anyway. They are not part of the Schengen space (as anybody who tries to enter Europe by London knows) and do not accept the Euro.

This said, it is just as ignorant to think that Trump has no chance. He has a chance and we should not ignore that and address the problem that his audience thinks he answers to (and I am not talking of racism and immigration, but of the need for good paying jobs for all, and a $12 an hour job -- as are many jobs these days even in jobs requiring qualifications -- is not a good paying job, not where I live at least). So, the Clinton campaign is missing a huge part of the working middle class in their immediate needs, as good as her other proposals for women and minorities are. And some good people may fall for it (The racists will always vote for Trump, so we can ignore them).

[alarimer]

8. I don't know.

Trump is not very good at running a campaign. No organization, no money. And certainly he won't be able to persuade anyone other than his base to vote for him, which is not really very many people.

So I don't think now is the time to panic.

[Triana]

10. True he doesn't seem to have much campaign apparatus. But we should fight like Hell against

the bastard anyway.

People said there was "no way" that clown would get the nomination. And then he did. Now - Brexit.

Don't take anything for granted. We HAVE to keep that fucking moron OFF of Capitol Hill.

[karynnj]

31. It is never to panic, but as the same could have said in the early primaries, it is not so certain

Not to mention, the down side of being concerned, is that there will be a push by the Clinton team to address the real underlying issue even more than otherwise. This could have the affect of increasing her margin if there were not a problem and it could help down ticket.

Now, look at the down side of saying that there is no problem. If we do not treat this as a fight of a lifetime, we will regret it if the incredibly unacceptable Trump squeaks in. The Clinton team really has to counter the negatives that she has built up. Many come from her very incredible need to not be open. Speaking to this or changing this will be personally difficult for her, but it may be what is needed to win over some people who are put off by it. (I admit it helps to have the unacceptable Trump as her opponent)

It may be that the conventional ideas of what wins elections is wrong. It may be that having an organization that personally goes door to door and then does GOTV is no longer what moves the vote. I suspect that many of us have had long days of canvasing or phone banking where we prize the very few interactions where we can feel we motivated a person to change to our candidate or someone to vote who was unlikely to do so. I suspect that LOCAL races are impacted by these things -- but the higher up the political latter you go, I wonder how many people develop a strong opinion that will not be swayed by a scripted phone bank or a typical door to door conversation with a stranger.

In recent elections, CW of campaigns has been turned on its head. From Dean to Obama to Sanders, the idea that big money controls the process was shattered. (Sanders did not lose for lack of money - he was a long shot that did far far better than anyone - including himself - ever expected.)

[Johnny2X2X]

9. This actually will hurt Trump

The UK is about to plunge into a serious recession and their going to face a huge backlash from other pissed off European countries. By the Fall this will be universally seen as a huge mistake, if not sooner.

[Triana]

11. That would be a good thing indeed in re: Trump

I hope you're right!

[rtracey]

14. yes but

Yes but you know this vote means nothing unless the Parliament votes for it. If they vote to stay in the EU, then the vote is meaningless.

[davidn3600]

16. And the result will be even more political upheaval

When are governments going to represent and start doing what their people want?

What you are supporting is governments throwing out the will of the people. Once that starts happening, you go down a very dark path.

[treestar]

26. not if it is within their system

We don't have referendums at all. They do have them in California. Parliament are their representatives, elected by them, like our legislatures. If their law says that it is up to parliament, that is their system.

[Renew Deal]

15. Jones: "The end of the world as we know it."

[writes3000]

17. If Trump keeps saying, he likes recession because it helps his businesses...

He will not come close to winning.

[UTUSN]

18. What little has filtered down to me about him is that he's often talking us down. n/t

[davidn3600]

21. What about people who already feel like its a recession?

Millions of Americans are out of work or can't find adequate employment. Most Americans live paycheck to paycheck. To them, it seems like a depression.

The only people doing well right now are the rich.

[Renew Deal]

20. Jones was on fire and I think he's mostly right

[Triana]

23. When Trump praises the decision, chances are high that it was a stupid one, no?

And his supporters in the US may be quite energized by that.

[bigwillq]

28. I think Trump can win in the US

I think at the end of the day, the rational folks will vote for Clinton, and Clinton seems to have an edge on the electoral map. But Clinton has to do a good job of getting folks to turnout, because the Trump folks will be out in force.

[gordianot]

30. A 10% national lead in the polls is not insurmountable.

Trump is a devious con man and his base does not care how wild he gets. He can win.

[RAFisher]

29. Another American pundit trying to to make the UK referendum about the 2016 presidential race

I don't see much of the connection. The Conservatives already did great in the 2015 general election, which is the whole reason this vote even came up. And now people are surprised that a measure supported largely by Conservatives did well.

[Democat]

32. If the vote went the other way, they would say it means Trump will win

Why listen to them?

[Purveyor]

33. It definitely is a cannon shot across the bow that one can not lightly dismiss. I wasn't that

concerned about November until last night.

Now I'm terrified!

[cry baby]

35. I agree with him and it was my first thought last night watching

the news come in.

We (at DU) underestimate the numbers of uninformed people that are easily panicked over the immigration issue. I believe we should take this as a serious sign that xenophobia and nationalism/exceptionalism are very strong motivator for uninformed people.

Remember how easily people were swayed into believing that Iraq was a national threat?