'People Are Really, Really Hoping This Theory About David Cameron and Brexit is True'

[Hissyspit]

http://indy100.independent.co.uk/article/people-are-really-really-hoping-this-theory-about-david-cameron-and-brexit-is-true--bJhqBql0VZ

People are really, really hoping this theory about David Cameron and Brexit is true

David Cameron’s decision to resign before enacting Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty...

- snip -

While panic ensues, one person’s musings in the comments section of the Guardian has an interesting hypothesis on these complications:

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

- snip -

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

- snip -

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

REST AT LINK

[midnight]

1. In your last paragraph… If he runs for leadership of the party… Are you refering to Cameron?

[Skinner]

3. It's a reference to Boris Johnson.

Click the link and read the whole thing.

[Skinner]

2. That is a really fascinating take.

It'll be interesting to see if it turns out to be true.

[JustAnotherGen]

15. +1

[TubbersUK]

4. The Poisoned Chalice theory

I kinda like it, but unfortunately this could still happen:

If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished.

A Pyrrhic victory for us Remainers.

Loving the other scenarios though.

[surrealAmerican]

24. What if the pellet with the poison's in the vessel with the pestle ...

... and the chalice from the palace has the brew that is true?

There's enough poison to go around on this deal.

[TubbersUK]

27. LOL n/t

[longship]

28. Danny Kaye. One absolutely has to have video on this!

Here:

And of course, Basil Rathbone and Angela Lansbury make appearances.

[meaculpa2011]

31. There has been a change...

The flagon with the dragon has the brew that is true?

No, no, no. The vessel with the pestle has the pellet with the poison.

The flagon with the dragon has the brew that is true.

[TubbersUK]

7. Maybe, maybe not

Polling publishing on Sunday confirmed a surge in support for independence since the EU referendum result.

A Panelbase survey for the Sunday Times indicated an almost direct reversal of the result of the 2014 referendum, with 52% in favour of independence, up seven points, and 48% against, down seven points.

The snapshot of 620 adults also found that 52% thought Scotland was likely to become independent within 10 years, rising from 30% when the same question was asked in April.

A poll for the Sunday Post that asked respondents how they would vote if a second referendum were held tomorrow, revealed 59% would vote yes to independence, 32% no and 9% undecided.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/26/nicola-sturgeon-new-scottish-referendum-brexit

[Denzil_DC]

11. Conventional wisdom has been

that it really needs to be polling steady at around 60% for independence over a period before Sturgeon would be comfortable calling another referendum. That poll sample's small, so the margin of error is too high to make it more than broadly indicative.

Things are moving fast here. No-supporting media have started switching, SNP membership is climbing again and ex-No public figures are declaring for Yes.

It's early days yet, and I'm glad we have the politicians in charge in Scotland that we do at the moment. They seem to be the only ones who've had a Plan A, let alone Plans B, C, D and counting, prepared.

[TubbersUK]

13. Interesting - thanks very much for the update :) n/t

[Surya Gayatri]

6. "A poison chalice"...long may the Tories quaff its contents.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

...

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

[AwakeAtLast]

30. And save some for their American counterparts

[Craig234]

8. Um

" If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this."


If he did, then why would he be for Brexit, unless he was fine with the result?

Either he DOESN'T know it, or he DOES and is fine with it. Either way, it doesn't change much.

[Surya Gayatri]

10. Boris has been checkmated by Cameron. The Brexit ringleaders expected

Cameron to trigger Article 50 immediately after the vote, and to take the lethal political hit from all the fallout.

He has refused to do that and has resigned instead, leaving the now poisonous political moves to his successor. Boris would be declared DOA even if he did manage to get the Premiership. Thus, the "poison chalice" allusion.

48 hours after the fact and Britain is reeling, waking up to the reality they have ignorantly wrought.

For the Brexit Bandits, Brexit has always been a naked ploy to gain power--nothing more. Gaining that power would now mean their nearly instantaneous political death.

[Craig234]

26. About that

"48 hours after the fact and Britain is reeling, waking up to the reality they have ignorantly wrought. "

Is there any measurable information on that? Like a national poll showing 60%+ saying it was a mistake?

The problem with these things politically is when the politics get mixed up.

So all the good things about the EU, mixed up with the neo-liberal austerity garbage.

The opposition to the austerity, mixed up with the xenophobes.

[Spider Jerusalem]

34. Jesus. Could you learn what you're talking about, pls?

The UK is NOT ON THE EURO. The UK has its own currency (the pound sterling), its own central bank (the Bank of England) and complete fiscal autonomy and control over its own budgets. Budget cuts and austerity in the UK have ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with the EU.

[Craig234]

36. Learn what you're talking about

I never said anything different than that the UK is on its own currency and so on.

I discussed the POLITICS of it in terms of who voters blame etc.

And you're wrong as well that the EU has 'nothing to do with austerity'. While England sets its own budget policies, the EU has been pushing austerity, and is viewed as having gone to the neo-liberal policies.

Or perhaps you'd like to explain to the BBC why they were wrong in their article titled "EU austerity drive country by country" to list UK austerity passed by the UK government as one of the countries.

http://www.bbc.com/news/10162176

There has been a broad push for austerity across Europe.

Voters don't like it much. They're rebelling, and many link it with the EU though it's more about the conservatives.

[Spider Jerusalem]

37. "The UK", not "England".

And the Tories have much more to do with UK austerity. The leaders of the Brexit campaign were right-wingers (Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson, Michael Gove). "Austerity" was never part of the argument for Brexit. "Take back control of our borders", "immigration is out of control", pandering to xenophobia was the main thrust of the campaign.

[Craig234]

38. And now you're nitpicking

instead of acknowledging and taking any responsibility for your tone and reading errors.

So you are partly saying the same thing I am, while party in denial about how voters can take their anger over austerity out.

So while I agree and said xenophobia is a big part, the Nation disagrees with you and agrees with me in this story headline that a quick google on "austerity brexit" finds as the first match:

"Political Elites’ Program of Austerity Set the Stage for Brexit

Scapegoating immigrants for economic suffering is easier than confronting the politicians that crafted austerity policy. "

[vintx]

35. This was really about a power play within the Tory party.

Just think of him as the UK's version of a Tea Partier. You know how those legislators don't seem to think much past their own next election / campaign fund? Same kind of thing.

[BlueMTexpat]

9. Thanks so much

for posting this, HS!

[pampango]

12. Boris Johnson, like Trump, if elected HAS to follow through on Brexit (or Trump 'tearing up'

all kinds of international agreements). Voters would abandon them in an instant if they did not follow through. It is the reason they were elected - if they are elected.

If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements.

If (Trump) runs, wins and pulls the (US out of NAFTA and the WTO), then it will all be over - a recession ... broken trade agreements.

Only in Trump's case he would be around for 4 years to continue to do damage to the US. Johnson might get replaced much sooner than that.

[auntpurl]

14. Very, very interesting take.

Thanks for posting.

[JustAnotherGen]

16. King took King

Well played sir.

[Stinky The Clown]

17. I'm laughing my ass off here.

I STILL think Cameron is a boob, but that theory is pretty slick. It almost rises to Michael Corleone's actions on the day he became godfather to Connie's son and, at the same time, wiped out every one of his enemies.

[paleotn]

18. Maybe Boris Johnson knows it now....

..but why didn't he and others suspect this before? Didn't they game this thing out to identify the possible and probably ramifications of a out vote? Maybe this is a monumental case of beware what you wish for, you might just get it.

[The Second Stone]

29. They were having too much fun trolling to realize that they might

get exactly what they wanted.

[craigmatic]

19. The EU says that they're treating the referendum as binding and are going to follow it anyway.

[bucolic_frolic]

20. To the EU it's a game similar to ''Too Big to Fail"

The EU will only let one country go, and make an example of them in the process

Just like our Fed, only one bank would be allowed to fail, to make sure the others
know the consequences.

[Adrahil]

25. They can't. The member nation has to invoke Artivle 50. NT

[roamer65]

32. They will violate their own treaty if they do it.

Kicking Britain out is just stupid Eurocrat talk.

[truebluegreen]

21. Seems to me the Brexiters, Boris Johnson in particular, are analogous

to the dog that finally caught the car: what does he/they do now?

[bucolic_frolic]

23. Pure plebiscite

on a question of national sovereignty

in a parliamentary system with, in my limited understanding, both
regular elections and spontaneous confidence polls

In the U.S., the political middle, the mainstream is hollowed out

In UK, the middle sharply divided, following different agendas

So a series of elections and falling governments could result in
relatively quick succession until someone gets tired of it, or a
consensus is reached

I suspect Brexit will be viewed as a hasty decision as well as
its aftermath. Cameron sure left quickly, what a leader.

[trof]

22. K&R

[DirkGently]

33. Interesting. n/t

[Hekate]

39. KnR to read link tomorrow

What a weird world it is ...