Rasmussen Reports has Trump ahead by 4 Points

[louis c]

I used to work at a racetrack and the best way to assess how a horse would finish in a race was by studying "past performances (PP's)". That's why, if you go to a racetrack, you see all those old guys charting and studying prior races.

Having said that, I researched Rasmussen's "PP's", and here's what I found. A article on their website in November of 2012 with this headline "Romney Beats Obama Handily". Kinda sounds like Truman-Dewey circa 1948.

Link to the article:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_michael_barone/going_out_on_a_limb_romney_beats_obama_handily

[citood]

1. Too early for the polls to mean much

[DetlefK]

3. According to Nate Silver, the odds of HRC winning are ~80%.

Yeah, I wouldn't go with a single poll. The thing about polls is: The more data, the more accuracy.

[citood]

6. Most polls are too small to really be random

So, the pollster crafts the demographics of the sample. Rasmussen probably has fewer D's and more R's in his sample than other polls, etc.

But the bottom line is that these polls are almost an echo chamber for the pollster's sample demographics. The pollster makes assumptions...and those assumptions are reflected in the result.

Last election, most polls were pretty darn close.

This time? I'd assume that most pollsters are having a hard time 'figuring out' Trump's base of support, and who to sample. But somewhere along the way (convention and debates), he'll have to actually take a position on something...and it will become easier to poll more accurately.

Anyway, as far as I'm concerned, any pre-conventions data can be thrown out.

[spanone]

2. rasmussen is a joke.

[LenaBaby61]

10. Someone believing in a Ras poll...

[Laura PourMeADrink]

4. Yes, noticed that too. Had him up weeks before too. But, always think

it's a bad place to be when we have to resort to trashing a poll source or saying it's too early to explain why your candidate is behind.

Joe on MoJoe asked the question this morning that no one could/knew how to answer.

How can Trump be so close when he's got such gaps in the Women, Hispanic, and African American vote? Plus - a higher negative impression? I know it's just simple mathematics - just haven't seen the demographics lately.

[lpbk2713]

5. Rass can't be taken seriously.

Just tell them what you want the margin to be, grease a few palms, and it's yours.

[JaneQPublic]

7. Nate Silver grades Rasmussen as a mere C+ pollster.

Best to follow the higher-ranked pollsters:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[leftynyc]

8. What are you looking at?

The latest rass poll for clinton vs trump was last Thursday (only released once a week) and it had don the con up by 2 after losing 2 points from the week before.

[Mass]

9. Is it a new poll or is it the poll they had a few weeks ago.

Last one I saw had Trump up by 2 with a MOE of 3.

Agree with the rest of your comment

[TwilightZone]

11. Rasmussen is +2 Trump

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch

It also appears to be an outlier.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html