General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsFor the first time, I now believe Trump has a chance of winning.
I've consistently laughed at him throughout this election cycle, I wanted him to be the GOP nominee as I viewed him as an easy to beat opponent. I was wrong (always tough to admit).
I live in a deep red area of the country. I have many republican friends and family members. Until now, most were embarrassed by Trump and only one was a wavering supporter of Trump.
Now, half are openly on the Trump bandwagon and the other half are just close.
Jobs and trade are probably the number one reason. Hillary really needs to address this in a way that makes sense to the average American worker.
Secondly, yell Islamophobia all you want, but people do not trust the Ideology nor what it stands for. Hillary needs to address this fear, not belittle it. She needs to explain the vetting process and that we will not be opening the doors wide a la Merkel.
Uncontrolled immigration is a problem period. It needs to be addressed. A wall is a stupid idea, but Hillary can't dismiss the Trump solution without providing an alternative.
Until now, I thought Trump could be ignored. Now, I'm facing the fact this country could actually elect him.
Atman
(31,464 posts)We've gone from HOPE to NOPE. Despite all facts belying his dystopian view of a crime-ridden America, our Idiocracy is cowering under their couches cheering him on.
I agree with you. Sadly, our own candidate is a large part of our problem.
emulatorloo
(44,072 posts)However I know you are a strong guy and I know you won't sit home wringing your hands.
Despite the gloom and doom of the OP, Trump will not be appealing to mainstream GE voters. For the same reasons Palin did not appeal to mainstream voters.
The Dem platform is far more appealing than the GOP platform as well.
It is our job to get out and inform voters of the positives of our candidate and of the Dem platform
treestar
(82,383 posts)Why are we sympathizing with Islamophobes and xenophobes? No, these are not big problems except to racists.
The local people around you are not a real poll. Don't know why people cite their personal experience and probably didn't even count those people either.
dumbcat
(2,120 posts)treestar
(82,383 posts)You really can read that into the OP?
That seems to suggest something about you .........
But I won't say what.
treestar
(82,383 posts)It clearly is about how we are not worried enough about these issues. You really think you can intimate people with that? Stick to the subject. Ad hominem is a fallacy.
dumbcat
(2,120 posts)What, me worry?
Whatever you say.
davidn3600
(6,342 posts)Britain is leaving the EU. Merkel may not survive next year's election. The right wing is gaining ground all over the continent. It's being rocked politically as voters become fed up with being given no solutions other than being told they are "racists" if they question immigration policy.
I wouldnt be surprised if the same thing starts happening here...either this year or 2020. If the economy continues to stagnate or even decline and if terrorism starts to occur on our soil, we will eventually have a far-right Republican president.
R B Garr
(16,950 posts)Now we're to believe that Hillary is soft on terrorism since the rest of the world is going right wing. Yet for a year, on this message board anyway, it's been shoved that Hillary is a warmonger. It's like these narratives are slowly changing just to fit another fabricated anti-Hillary message. That seems to be the main goal.
okieinpain
(9,397 posts)He said Hillary, death, destruction, and weakness. Lolhow are you the cause of death and destruction and weak at the same time.
R B Garr
(16,950 posts)enough to be anti-Hillary as it goes along. The post I responded to actually had the quote, "if terrorism starts to occur on our soil." But if Hillary responded to actual terrorism on our soil in the form of the 9/11 attack, she is ridiculed endlessly. I'll bet we'll be seeing lots of second takes on the Iraq vote very soon now.
okieinpain
(9,397 posts)davidn3600
(6,342 posts)Iraq never attacked us. In fact, Saddam kept a lot of the radical Islam suppressed. That war was stupid...as was anyone who voted for it.
Afghanistan you could say was justified because the Taliban were harboring the people responsible for 9/11 and were refusing to give them up.
R B Garr
(16,950 posts)on 9/11 and there are non-stop attempts to deny her efforts in that city after that disaster happened. Any good that she did for the first responders or any of her constituents was held against her since it was an obvious advantage she had in the primary that her opponent didn't have. So she couldn't tout her successful record after 9/11 without being called vile names. If she mentioned it as a successful part of her career, she is dismissed by her haters.
Now the dialogue is shifting that people globally are tired of terrorism and will, therefore, be voting right wing in the future. It's just more irrational reason to marginalize Clinton and her accomplishments. Just reread your original post I responded to.
Ghost in the Machine
(14,912 posts)that he was involved. BUSHCO* rejected this outright, saying "We don't NEED proof, we KNOW he's guilty!" The Taliban offered to turn him over to a Neutral 3rd Country for trial, which was again rejected with the threat of "Turn him over immediately or we begin carpet-bombing you back to the Stone Ages".
If YOU were suspected by another Country of terrorism, would you want the U.S. to turn YOU over under these conditions??
I've also often asked "WHY would bin Laden DENY involvement, especially if he was trying to recruit new members? It doesn't make sense, to me anyways....
Any thoughts on this?
Peace,
Ghost
Blanks
(4,835 posts)I saw that excerpt several times and that never occurred to me.
She's apparently weakening us by killing off and destroying all the strong folks. Whoever they are.
treestar
(82,383 posts)Hillary was such a "warmonger" until now!
treestar
(82,383 posts)Europe has nothing to do with the massive loss Trump will be suffering in November.
demmiblue
(36,824 posts)I really hope that Hillary picks a VP who is dynamic and who can take on Trump's rhetoric.
I never, ever wanted Elizabeth Warren to be the VP pick because I think her voice is crucial in the Senate, but she may be the best solution.
* Be prepared for the barrage of, "you're concern is duly noted."
socialist_n_TN
(11,481 posts)NOT going to help with economic progressives OR people who hate the trade agreements.
demmiblue
(36,824 posts)I am also not fond of his stance on choice/reproduction education... a few too many strings attached.
I am hoping that the rumors of his impending VPship are a sleight of hand on the part of Hillary's team.
FLPanhandle
(7,107 posts)I was cool on him initially, but now have come around.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)FLPanhandle
(7,107 posts)They are key to Trump winning.
Keep the Independents from swaying to Trump and Hillary has the White House.
socialist_n_TN
(11,481 posts)For this statement to be true, you have to look at indys as a monolithic bloc and they're not. In fact, per Gallup, a slightly higher percentage (18%) of independents are classed as "Democratic leaning independents" which probably means they're to the LEFT of Kaine. I think this is logical because IF they weren't to the left of the Dems, they would just be Dems and not independents "leaning" Democratic. 16% are "Republican leaning independents" and those are probably a lock for Trump or maybe Johnson. There's only 10% that MIGHT be swayed away from Trump by a neo-liberal Democratic like Kaine as the Veep choice. And of course, all of them won't be swayed. Will Kaine win or lose more independents? I think that he'll lose more than he'll win.
Also choosing Kaine locks Clinton in as the "establishment" candidate in an election year where "establishment" is a dirty word. If this were any election year within the last 40 years, then Kaine would be the "safe" choice. Not this year.
FLPanhandle
(7,107 posts)I think those to the left of Kaine aren't going for Trump regardless. I don't believe the right leaning independents, however, are a "lock for Trump".
A 10% swing in the independent vote will determine the election.
alarimer
(16,245 posts)Trying to draw in disaffected Republicans NEVER FUCKING WORKS!
yourpaljoey
(2,166 posts)This will push Indies to go Green.
Why not at least make believe you are trying to
work with Sanders supporters?
GulfCoast66
(11,949 posts)They never will be.
bigwillq
(72,790 posts)Any R nominee had a chance of winning. With a two-party system dominating our politic, the R and D both have a 50 percent chance of WINNING.
BobbyDrake
(2,542 posts)Anyone who wants to boost Trump while pretending to be progressive should probably be over on that Pinebagger website.
demmiblue
(36,824 posts)BobbyDrake
(2,542 posts)That's what is truly rude. The Pinebaggers will give you all the upvotes you're looking for.
demmiblue
(36,824 posts)I don't appreciate the insinuation.
BobbyDrake
(2,542 posts)demmiblue
(36,824 posts)BobbyDrake
(2,542 posts)Don't talk about posting as you see fit and then try telling me what to do. That's called hypocrisy.
okieinpain
(9,397 posts)FLPanhandle
(7,107 posts)I tried to list the key reasons people are coming around to Trump and tried to provide some thoughts.
I didn't consider that a "concern" post.
BobbyDrake
(2,542 posts)Real liberals aren't going to treat Islamaphobia as anything other than brainless prejudice.
Socal31
(2,484 posts)Understanding why fear and bigotry are currently resonating with a larger percentage of the electorate than usual is useful and important. But that isn't the same as accepting the ideology.
BobbyDrake
(2,542 posts)The big giveaway was the open hysterics about Angela Merkel. If you want to board that train, be my guest, but don't expect to see many genuine liberals board with you.
Socal31
(2,484 posts)BobbyDrake
(2,542 posts)You and your insults aren't going to bother me. Bye!
melman
(7,681 posts)and why would anyone care if you ignored them?
BobbyDrake
(2,542 posts)GusBob
(7,286 posts)the white males wont win elections
Mike Nelson
(9,944 posts)...didn't mention - Hillary Clinton knows this very, very well. She has never been "coronated" to be "queen" of anything. She's had to focus and fight every step of the way. She does not take the Presidency for granted, either. I don't believe she ever believed the "media" pronouncements. She is never handed anything. She is prepared and will address Trump effectively, I believe.
FLPanhandle
(7,107 posts)Good point
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)tallahasseedem
(6,716 posts)She has taken over 25 years of this shit and there's no way she's going to let it stop her this year. I'm looking forward to the convention, and most importantly, the debates!
puffy socks
(1,473 posts)uponit7771
(90,304 posts)PJMcK
(21,998 posts)You expressed your concerns effectively, FLPanhandle, but I'd suggest you take a deep breath. Hillary Clinton has this. Her campaign will shred Donald Trump and expose him for the utter phony he is.
This is going to be an ugly fight because Mr. Trump is the exploded exaggeration of the Ugly American who will fling his feces all around to create discord. Secretary Clinton, I'm confident, already has war plans in place.
Personal experiences can be unsettling but they very rarely reflect a scientific analysis of the country at large. After Labor Day, watch the polls and how they reflect the Electoral College votes. I'm hopeful we'll see the harbingers of a tremendous win by Mrs. Clinton.
FLPanhandle
(7,107 posts)I am still optimistic! Just rather shocked at the turn around of some friends and family.
Looking forward to next weeks rebuttal.
roamer65
(36,744 posts)It is a long political road and with the infighting in the Rethug party he will not be able to come out of "primary" mode. I think there are going to be significant defections to Gary Johnson and Trumpf may even finish in 3rd place.
FLPanhandle
(7,107 posts)The GOP infighting will be a factor.
PSPS
(13,580 posts)Outside the rump base of 20 - 25% that define the contemporary GOP, exemplified by the attendees at the convention, Trump's speech was an utter disaster. The key thing to ask yourself is this: will his speech bring new voters to this 20 - 25%? Obviously not, much the same as his VP pick won't either.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)He cant bust out of that without a serious personality change. Maybe a lobotomy would help.
uponit7771
(90,304 posts)ericson00
(2,707 posts)Secondly, yell Islamophobia all you want, but people do not trust the Ideology nor what it stands for. Hillary needs to address this fear, not belittle it. She needs to explain the vetting process and that we will not be opening the doors wide a la Merkel.
That's what I said! This is what could cost her the election if she doesn't.
liberal N proud
(60,332 posts)The delegates that were at the convention making it look like everyone (but Cruz) has drank the magic potion and fallen in love with Trump. That is not America, those people are not America, they are a boil on the ass of an over inflated clown who pushed all the other clowns out of the car through the very things we saw on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday nights. By Thursday, they had purged all the non conformist and placed only the Kool-Aid drinking hard core republicans in the arena.
DanM
(341 posts)Even if Drumpf got all expected turn-out and votes from Repugs, they are a minority of the general electorate. Repug insanity is not an indicator of what the general result will be.
heresAthingdotcom
(160 posts)and on election day 2012 Romney was shellshocked when he lost....
Then came the early exit polls that also were favorable to the president.
But it wasn't until the polls closed that concern turned into alarm. They expected North Carolina to be called early. It wasn't. They expected Pennsylvania to be up in the air all night; it went early for the President.
After Ohio went for Mr. Obama, it was over, but senior advisers say no one could process it.
"We went into the evening confident we had a good path to victory," said one senior adviser. "I don't think there was one person who saw this coming."
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/adviser-romney-shellshocked-by-loss/
the last RCP average poll before the election in 2012 showed President Obama up by .7 of a percent....
http://www.stanleyyelnats.com/2016-polls.html
and some polls showed Romney winning..... Rasmussen and Gallup....President Obama won by 4% and 5 million votes and received more than 300 electoral votes....
Hillary Clinton is performing better in some Demographics than President Obama did in 2012 and better than some that Romney won ... White Americans with College Educations... Romney won by 14% in 2012 and lost by 5 million votes.... Hillary is beating Trump in that demographic from 5% to 10% a swing from 2012 by 15% to 20%.....
there is a simple reason President Obama won in 2012 and that reason is simply this.... President Obama got 5 million more votes than Romney...
In 2012 White Voters made up 72% of the voting population.... President Obama received 39% and Romney 59%... in 2016 the White Voter Population has dropped to 69%....
a recent poll showed Clinton leading Trump 47%-40% with registered voters, and 49%-41% with likely voters, Clinton has the support of 87% of Democrats and Trump has the support of 84% of Republicans, while independents split 42% for Clinton and 37% for Trump. The gender gap is particularly large, Clinton leads among women by 27 points (57%30%) while Trump leads among men by 13 points (50%37%). Clinton also holds a commanding advantage among black, Hispanic and Asian voters (72%17%), while Trump leads among white voters (49%38%).
Hillary is performing 1 percent less than President Obama but Trump is performing 10% less than Romney
By Mr. Ayress calculations, a 2016 Democratic nominee who matches Mr. Obamas 39% share of white voters will need to win 75% of nonwhitesa smaller share than the 82% Mr. Obama carried in 2012.
A recent poll shows Hillary winning the non white demographic with a 77% share....
An ABC News/Washington Post poll released Sunday has Clinton leading among nonwhite voters by the biggest margin yet: 77 percent of nonwhite voters side with the presumptive Democratic nominee, compared with 15 percent who prefer her Republican counterpart.
In 2012 the Voters broke for President Obama and there is nothing that suggest that the same won't happen in 2016, the voters will break for Hillary....
It will be close and every vote will be necessary .... recent events with voter rights will help as Republicans can't suppress the Votes of Democrats....
Democrats need to drive the turn out up to 122 million or more... I think Hillary will win in November... and I will do my share to make certain she does.... as every other American who doesn't want the FASCIST Trump to win....
phylny
(8,368 posts)mountain grammy
(26,600 posts)Meantime, a boring, unknown, weak VP pick from Hillary will not be helpful. Elizabeth Warren is the only pick who will give us the landslide we need... in my opinion. Corey Booker would be another good choice.
SticksnStones
(2,108 posts)I thought, America is going to view this party that's going on over in Cleveland and want to jump on board. A kind of " I'm in with the In-Crowd".
But then I remembered that this will be the last time in this process that we'll view this great concentration of everyone who hates Hillary all together in one room screaming about it all at the same time. So yeah, maybe a bump from the spectacle of it all but people have short memories. And the hoopla of this convention will be diluted over these next months with the narrative of his actual words and his actual deeds.
Remember the end of the movie, "The Ed Show"? Scene after scene of people sitting in their homes, glued to the tv, completely engrossed with what happens next to Ed? And then it's over, Ed leaves the soundstage and they all go back to their lives. I believe the final line in the film "what else is on?"
This has been four days of The Trump Show. It's over. She's next.
Fresh_Start
(11,330 posts)I fear dementia in one of them who's been a hard drinker for a long time
And ordinary US/THEM anti-Democratic party lack of thinking in the others.
ChisolmTrailDem
(9,463 posts)...have to live with it.
Lint Head
(15,064 posts)fart. He is the squeaking wheel that gets the grease. Someone needs to really humiliate him and shut his ass down. I sure hope Hillary can do it. If Elizabeth Warren were her vice president pick I think Trump could be smothered in his own bile.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)Likewise, terrorism is a very modest threat to Americans.
Lastly, anyone who think the Republicans are interested in jobs for working class people is a MORON.
And there we have it. MORONS are voting GOP. They are frightened little children who want a strongman to take control of their lives and protect them from those "others" that "threaten" them.
Trump is Vladimir Putin with bad hair.
Calculating
(2,955 posts)Most people I know are VERY uncomfortable with allowing more muslim migrants into our country. They've seen the recent horrors in Europe and want no part of it. It's very easy to scare them into voting for trump by saying Hillary will let in a bunch of Islamic migrants.
Arkana
(24,347 posts)And I'm sure that Hillary saying this will TOTALLY stop Trump from saying Hillary wants open borders. Yep. Absolutely.
uponit7771
(90,304 posts)Democat
(11,617 posts)Most of what Trump says is lies.
Calculating
(2,955 posts)But most of the jobs are crappy service work and pay low wages. Meaningful employment is the problem. Manufacturing jobs were the backbone of our country during the good times, and those jobs are almost gone now.
Democat
(11,617 posts)No one is.
Vinca
(50,237 posts)He's much, much, much lower than Romney and, according to those who know more than I do, can't win with those numbers.
RandySF
(58,513 posts)The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,615 posts)What he won't get is any significant number of the votes of Latinos, African Americans, women, immigrants, Muslims, LGBT people, or the disabled. He can't win with just the old white guys.
Nevertheless, we can't be complacent, so every effort should be made to GOTV.
The_Casual_Observer
(27,742 posts)nonsense. This will never happen. Perhaps he doesn't understand this because he just makes this shit up as he goes along.
Fools listen to his rants about lowing taxes while at the same time spending money on gigantic infrastructure projects and eat it up.
brush
(53,743 posts)anymore.
We outnumber them. Trump will get the traditional post-convention bounce but the Dem convention is next and that will be negated after our convention is over, then the real campaigning will begin.
We've got Obama, Biden, Warren, Sanders, Michelle et al to campaign with and for Hillary.
Who do they have, hell half the repug party wouldn't even show up at their own convention.
And wait for the debates. Hillary will run circles around Trump's lack of knowledge.
We got this. We just have to get out the vote.
Wounded Bear
(58,605 posts)He's still preaching to his base. He tried to sound more 'moderate' and 'presidential' and it is obvious he has been working on his teleprompter reading skills, but he's still an asshole. I don't really see a lot of centrists or Indies being swayed by that.
I don't expect a big bounce from that event, and it will vaporize as the Dem convention convenes. The Hillary post convention bounce won't dissipate as quickly as the Trump wavelet.
Nobody is ignoring Trump, to be sure. Hill and her team are taking him very seriously.
Miles Archer
(18,837 posts)He appears to appeal to the people who are angry and see no way out.
So the formula for success, in my opinion, is to acknowledge the anger without buying into it and offering legitimate, workable solutions.
So that, and it's a landslide for Clinton.
Don't do that, not so much of a landslide and there is Trump's window of opportunity. People are pissed off and disillusioned and that needs to be appropriately addressed.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)dembotoz
(16,785 posts)the gop has all these folks who hate hrc....strong visceral hate
they will vote
trump has turned on the bigots
they will vote
dem turnout???? i am not impressed by what i see
Matrosov
(1,098 posts)I also live in a deep red area of the country. I live in a conservative bastion within the Deep South. About 99.5% of the people around me are hardcore evangelical Republicans.
So far not all of them have been supportive of Trump. Not because they are concerned about the way he speaks about Latinos and Muslims, but because of some of the 'liberal' arguments he has made in the past. In other words, he is not consistently conservative enough for their taste.
This convention has changed many of those minds. There is now a certain energy to go out and defeat 'Crooked Hillary' and the 'communist, liberal, elite establishment' by voting for Trump. The only people I know who are now less fond of Trump are those who are evangelical to the point that they didn't appreciate Trump talking about protecting the LGBTQ community.
I don't think I've ever been as frightened during an election cycle..
dawg
(10,621 posts)Anyone with an (R) beside their name is guaranteed 45% of the vote (and much more than that in the panhandle).
But his chances are still less than Rubio or even Cruz would have had.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)We were instructed on this board that Hillary was Rambo in a pantsuit. Now we are being instructed she is Mr. Rogers.
SMH
Democat
(11,617 posts)So many people bashing Clinton on a site called Democratic Underground.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)emulatorloo
(44,072 posts)There was no attempt to attract mainstream GE voters. Nothing designed to broaden their appeal to people who aren't bigots and rabid conspiracy theorists.
I for one am not going to wring my hands and sit on my fat ass. GOTV!
Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)And if they do....we deserve what will happen....any talk about 3rd party might as well say elect trump....we have one choice...and it is clear..
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Fortunately, he has minimal support among non-whites.
deathrind
(1,786 posts)Many, many people thought that there was no way Trump could be the republican nominee...surprise...
Anyone who thinks that there is no chance trump could be elected as POTUS. That the electorate will simply not do that does not have a grasp on the reality of the situation. As saddening as it is to say it is a very real possibility. HRC must address the issues the OP mentioned trade/immigration and more.
RAFisher
(466 posts)The next couple weeks of polling will be very important. Will Trump get a bump from the RNC? Will Clinton get a bump from the DNC? It's not sensationalize.
Democat
(11,617 posts)I wonder why that would be?
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)Hell Hath No Fury
(16,327 posts)...two mediocre actors to their Statehouse. I have NEVER laughed about Trump making it to the White House.
If HRC is thinking she can just wait it out until Trump implodes and win, she is DANGEROUSLY wrong.
edhopper
(33,491 posts)still put him behind Hillary.
I wouldn't worry to much. Let's just work hard to get her elected.
backscatter712
(26,355 posts)He was going off the teleprompter instead of doing his usual ad-libbing, which made him really stiff, and robbed him of the usual nasty humor he uses to rile up his neckbreathers.
Instead, he was extremely long-winded, and he tried to compensate for lagging attention by bellowing at the top of his lungs.
He was incredibly negative and fear-mongering, which is red meat for his base, but does little to bring in new voters. And since those of us on our side of the aisle are concluding that his speech was better in the original German, it only motivates us to work harder to win this election.
Different Drummer
(7,606 posts)lovemydog
(11,833 posts)Clinton and all of us democrats can help by explaining clearly without denigrating undecideds.
If anyone here can address these concerns without insulting, or using bumper sticker jokes, sarcasm or platitudes it would be much appreciated.
Darb
(2,807 posts)What "uncontrolled immigration"? There already is a controlled, strenuous "vetting process", but believe me, you couldn't tell that to anyone in the FL panhandle, I know, I used to live in Jackson and Holmes Counties and those folks don't want to hear it. Move out for your sanity's sake.
retread
(3,761 posts)0rganism
(23,932 posts)thing is, HRC has a much better chance
fwiw, i've stopped laughing at trump too, he's not even funny anymore, and having people taking him seriously will further diminish his chances
doc03
(35,300 posts)wrong about him since the start. The man is a genius on promoting himself, that is what he has done his entire life.
Grey Lemercier
(1,429 posts)We WILL win, and we do not need this type of fear porn.
B Calm
(28,762 posts)melman
(7,681 posts)Or that acknowledging the possibility is 'concern trolling' , or 'fear porn'.
n/t