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FLPanhandle

(7,107 posts)
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 08:33 AM Jul 2016

For the first time, I now believe Trump has a chance of winning.

I've consistently laughed at him throughout this election cycle, I wanted him to be the GOP nominee as I viewed him as an easy to beat opponent. I was wrong (always tough to admit).

I live in a deep red area of the country. I have many republican friends and family members. Until now, most were embarrassed by Trump and only one was a wavering supporter of Trump.

Now, half are openly on the Trump bandwagon and the other half are just close.

Jobs and trade are probably the number one reason. Hillary really needs to address this in a way that makes sense to the average American worker.

Secondly, yell Islamophobia all you want, but people do not trust the Ideology nor what it stands for. Hillary needs to address this fear, not belittle it. She needs to explain the vetting process and that we will not be opening the doors wide a la Merkel.

Uncontrolled immigration is a problem period. It needs to be addressed. A wall is a stupid idea, but Hillary can't dismiss the Trump solution without providing an alternative.

Until now, I thought Trump could be ignored. Now, I'm facing the fact this country could actually elect him.

113 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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For the first time, I now believe Trump has a chance of winning. (Original Post) FLPanhandle Jul 2016 OP
America; Beyond Thunderdome. Atman Jul 2016 #1
If people don't GOTV, they are a large part of the problem. emulatorloo Jul 2016 #55
He does not treestar Jul 2016 #2
Where, exactly, did you see sympathy in the OP? dumbcat Jul 2016 #31
It seems to suggest we give way to their concerns treestar Jul 2016 #89
Really? dumbcat Jul 2016 #92
What a dumb post treestar Jul 2016 #97
"... we are not worried enough ..." dumbcat Jul 2016 #98
Europeans are starting to think it is a problem davidn3600 Jul 2016 #34
So now we're to believe the opposite of what has been touted for over a year now. R B Garr Jul 2016 #52
Didn't you hear trump last night okieinpain Jul 2016 #56
Yeah, it is a jumbled messsage. The only thing consistent is that it is twisted R B Garr Jul 2016 #63
+1 n/t okieinpain Jul 2016 #68
Sorry, but Iraq was not a response to terrorism davidn3600 Jul 2016 #103
Bottom line is that Hillary was a New York Senator when that terrorist attack happened R B Garr Jul 2016 #104
Actually, the Taliban offered to turn bin Laden over IF the US could provide solid, concrete PROOF Ghost in the Machine Jul 2016 #109
Good point... Blanks Jul 2016 #80
Bingo! treestar Jul 2016 #91
this is not Europe treestar Jul 2016 #90
I can't say that I am unconcerned... this election season has been so unpredictable. demmiblue Jul 2016 #3
Looks like Tim Kaine though........ socialist_n_TN Jul 2016 #7
Yeah, I also didn't realize he was a proponent of Right to Work for Less in his state. demmiblue Jul 2016 #11
Tim Kaine will undermine Trump's support though FLPanhandle Jul 2016 #21
How will he do that? nt geek tragedy Jul 2016 #23
Better appeal to independents FLPanhandle Jul 2016 #27
A few things here....... socialist_n_TN Jul 2016 #35
Good points FLPanhandle Jul 2016 #45
No he won't. alarimer Jul 2016 #47
A terrible selection yourpaljoey Jul 2016 #57
If they are not with her now GulfCoast66 Jul 2016 #79
He always had a chance of winning bigwillq Jul 2016 #4
Concernucopia! Such an abundance of concern around here! BobbyDrake Jul 2016 #5
No one is boosting Trump. Stop being so rude. n/t demmiblue Jul 2016 #8
You're efforts are obvious. Please stop trying to demoralize us. BobbyDrake Jul 2016 #9
You think I want a Trump presidency? demmiblue Jul 2016 #12
Then maybe stop cosigning "concern" threads that make it seem inevitable. nt BobbyDrake Jul 2016 #13
I'll post as I see fit. Again, please discontinue the rude responses. n/t demmiblue Jul 2016 #53
You're confusing "disagreeing with you" with "rude," which is your mistake. BobbyDrake Jul 2016 #85
Thank you. N/t. okieinpain Jul 2016 #60
Concern posts don't provide actions FLPanhandle Jul 2016 #17
No, it's a "scared" post. "Scared" is the new "Concerned." BobbyDrake Jul 2016 #30
Nobody here is trying to rationalize, promote, or support xenophobia, as far as I can see. Socal31 Jul 2016 #33
The OP is using Republican logic to endorse stopping immigration. BobbyDrake Jul 2016 #38
That is too many logical fallacies in one paragraph for me to take you seriously. Socal31 Jul 2016 #39
Take this Ignore seriously then. BobbyDrake Jul 2016 #40
You're the one throwing insults around. melman Jul 2016 #65
You tell me. BobbyDrake Jul 2016 #88
lol, got caught up in the narrowcasting GusBob Jul 2016 #6
One thing you... Mike Nelson Jul 2016 #10
+1 FLPanhandle Jul 2016 #14
Good post. nt auntpurl Jul 2016 #20
+1 tallahasseedem Jul 2016 #25
Yep puffy socks Jul 2016 #64
+1 uponit7771 Jul 2016 #106
Optimism! PJMcK Jul 2016 #15
Thanks for that post. FLPanhandle Jul 2016 #18
I don't see Trumpf winning in November. roamer65 Jul 2016 #16
All good points FLPanhandle Jul 2016 #19
Sorry, but it's just the opposite. PSPS Jul 2016 #22
His appeal is limited to about 40% of voting population. DCBob Jul 2016 #24
+1, Reuters has him under 40℅ post convention !!!! uponit7771 Jul 2016 #107
you do have a very good point here: ericson00 Jul 2016 #26
You don't think the 4 days of fear and hate will push some away? liberal N proud Jul 2016 #28
Settle down. All that's happened is the Repugs have gone insane this cycle. DanM Jul 2016 #29
Romney had a Chance of Winning.... heresAthingdotcom Jul 2016 #32
Fantastic post filled with great and thoughtful information! n/t phylny Jul 2016 #110
Of course we should be concerned, but let's not panic. mountain grammy Jul 2016 #36
I thought that at first too... SticksnStones Jul 2016 #37
sadly, I also have some relatives on the TrumpWagon Fresh_Start Jul 2016 #41
This is an anti-establishment election. We chose an establishment nominee. Now, we... ChisolmTrailDem Jul 2016 #42
Trump is loud and makes news. The media covers every sneeze every Lint Head Jul 2016 #43
America is really NOT suffering from "uncontrolled immigration" Adrahil Jul 2016 #44
Hillary needs to backtrack on the migrant issue Calculating Jul 2016 #46
Too fucking bad for those people you know. Arkana Jul 2016 #100
You need to get to know people with better character uponit7771 Jul 2016 #108
How low can unemployment go? Democat Jul 2016 #48
Unemployment is low Calculating Jul 2016 #49
Trump is not going to bring steel and lumber mills back to America Democat Jul 2016 #74
We have to keep reminding ourselves of what he polls with black people and Latinos. Vinca Jul 2016 #50
Net immigration has been down RandySF Jul 2016 #51
He will get the votes of a majority of old white guys. The Velveteen Ocelot Jul 2016 #54
Trump offers the hope of jobs contingent on trade barriers and rewriting treaties or some such The_Casual_Observer Jul 2016 #58
Calm down. There are no longer enough angry, racist whites to win a national election . . . brush Jul 2016 #59
I don't see how the convention improved his chances... Wounded Bear Jul 2016 #61
In direct proportion to the role that blind anger plays in the polls Miles Archer Jul 2016 #62
Always had a chance. Just not a good one. Loki Liesmith Jul 2016 #66
to badly paraphrase jim hightower...turn out is based on turn on. dembotoz Jul 2016 #67
Perhaps I'm one of the few who can relate Matrosov Jul 2016 #69
Those people were going to vote for the Republican nominee regardless. dawg Jul 2016 #70
I am confused. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2016 #71
I am confused too Democat Jul 2016 #75
How can one have the disposition of Rambo and Mr. Rogers ? DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2016 #76
Additionally, GOP convention did NOTHING but appeal to their Deranged Base emulatorloo Jul 2016 #78
Michael Moore agrees....based on his observations of people in Michigan nt Laura PourMeADrink Jul 2016 #72
Trump can only win if Democrats sit on their asses.... beachbum bob Jul 2016 #73
White people would elect him by a wide margin oberliner Jul 2016 #77
Hmmmm... deathrind Jul 2016 #81
Your fears are justified. The polls are tightening and Clinton is only polling at 44% RAFisher Jul 2016 #82
You probably read different polls than most people at DU Democat Jul 2016 #83
Because that's what's available on the running avgs of national polls at huffpost and RCP HereSince1628 Jul 2016 #93
I come from a State that elected -- Hell Hath No Fury Jul 2016 #84
post convention bump edhopper Jul 2016 #86
I'm concerned, but on the bright side, his delivery was bad last night. backscatter712 Jul 2016 #87
I've never thought he didn't have a chance. n/t Different Drummer Jul 2016 #94
I agree. lovemydog Jul 2016 #95
Sounds like you believe their bullshit. Darb Jul 2016 #96
Around here it's known as the klanhandle. retread Jul 2016 #99
he's had "a chance" ever since he stepped on stage at the primaries 0rganism Jul 2016 #101
If I had to make a bet my money would be on Trump, everyone has been doc03 Jul 2016 #102
please stop these posts that try to hurt our morale Grey Lemercier Jul 2016 #105
The enemy is complacency, not some post on du. B Calm Jul 2016 #112
Only a fool thinks it's impossible for their opponent to win melman Jul 2016 #111
+1 XemaSab Jul 2016 #113

Atman

(31,464 posts)
1. America; Beyond Thunderdome.
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 08:36 AM
Jul 2016

We've gone from HOPE to NOPE. Despite all facts belying his dystopian view of a crime-ridden America, our Idiocracy is cowering under their couches cheering him on.

I agree with you. Sadly, our own candidate is a large part of our problem.

emulatorloo

(44,072 posts)
55. If people don't GOTV, they are a large part of the problem.
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 11:52 AM
Jul 2016

However I know you are a strong guy and I know you won't sit home wringing your hands.

Despite the gloom and doom of the OP, Trump will not be appealing to mainstream GE voters. For the same reasons Palin did not appeal to mainstream voters.

The Dem platform is far more appealing than the GOP platform as well.

It is our job to get out and inform voters of the positives of our candidate and of the Dem platform

treestar

(82,383 posts)
2. He does not
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 08:40 AM
Jul 2016

Why are we sympathizing with Islamophobes and xenophobes? No, these are not big problems except to racists.

The local people around you are not a real poll. Don't know why people cite their personal experience and probably didn't even count those people either.

dumbcat

(2,120 posts)
92. Really?
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 03:45 PM
Jul 2016

You really can read that into the OP?

That seems to suggest something about you .........

But I won't say what.

treestar

(82,383 posts)
97. What a dumb post
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 05:47 PM
Jul 2016

It clearly is about how we are not worried enough about these issues. You really think you can intimate people with that? Stick to the subject. Ad hominem is a fallacy.

 

davidn3600

(6,342 posts)
34. Europeans are starting to think it is a problem
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 10:04 AM
Jul 2016

Britain is leaving the EU. Merkel may not survive next year's election. The right wing is gaining ground all over the continent. It's being rocked politically as voters become fed up with being given no solutions other than being told they are "racists" if they question immigration policy.

I wouldnt be surprised if the same thing starts happening here...either this year or 2020. If the economy continues to stagnate or even decline and if terrorism starts to occur on our soil, we will eventually have a far-right Republican president.

R B Garr

(16,950 posts)
52. So now we're to believe the opposite of what has been touted for over a year now.
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 11:48 AM
Jul 2016

Now we're to believe that Hillary is soft on terrorism since the rest of the world is going right wing. Yet for a year, on this message board anyway, it's been shoved that Hillary is a warmonger. It's like these narratives are slowly changing just to fit another fabricated anti-Hillary message. That seems to be the main goal.

okieinpain

(9,397 posts)
56. Didn't you hear trump last night
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 11:53 AM
Jul 2016

He said Hillary, death, destruction, and weakness. Lolhow are you the cause of death and destruction and weak at the same time.

R B Garr

(16,950 posts)
63. Yeah, it is a jumbled messsage. The only thing consistent is that it is twisted
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 12:10 PM
Jul 2016

enough to be anti-Hillary as it goes along. The post I responded to actually had the quote, "if terrorism starts to occur on our soil." But if Hillary responded to actual terrorism on our soil in the form of the 9/11 attack, she is ridiculed endlessly. I'll bet we'll be seeing lots of second takes on the Iraq vote very soon now.

 

davidn3600

(6,342 posts)
103. Sorry, but Iraq was not a response to terrorism
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 09:57 PM
Jul 2016

Iraq never attacked us. In fact, Saddam kept a lot of the radical Islam suppressed. That war was stupid...as was anyone who voted for it.

Afghanistan you could say was justified because the Taliban were harboring the people responsible for 9/11 and were refusing to give them up.

R B Garr

(16,950 posts)
104. Bottom line is that Hillary was a New York Senator when that terrorist attack happened
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 11:17 PM
Jul 2016

on 9/11 and there are non-stop attempts to deny her efforts in that city after that disaster happened. Any good that she did for the first responders or any of her constituents was held against her since it was an obvious advantage she had in the primary that her opponent didn't have. So she couldn't tout her successful record after 9/11 without being called vile names. If she mentioned it as a successful part of her career, she is dismissed by her haters.

Now the dialogue is shifting that people globally are tired of terrorism and will, therefore, be voting right wing in the future. It's just more irrational reason to marginalize Clinton and her accomplishments. Just reread your original post I responded to.



Ghost in the Machine

(14,912 posts)
109. Actually, the Taliban offered to turn bin Laden over IF the US could provide solid, concrete PROOF
Sat Jul 23, 2016, 12:15 AM
Jul 2016

that he was involved. BUSHCO* rejected this outright, saying "We don't NEED proof, we KNOW he's guilty!" The Taliban offered to turn him over to a Neutral 3rd Country for trial, which was again rejected with the threat of "Turn him over immediately or we begin carpet-bombing you back to the Stone Ages".

If YOU were suspected by another Country of terrorism, would you want the U.S. to turn YOU over under these conditions??

I've also often asked "WHY would bin Laden DENY involvement, especially if he was trying to recruit new members? It doesn't make sense, to me anyways....

Any thoughts on this?

Peace,

Ghost

Blanks

(4,835 posts)
80. Good point...
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 01:12 PM
Jul 2016

I saw that excerpt several times and that never occurred to me.

She's apparently weakening us by killing off and destroying all the strong folks. Whoever they are.

treestar

(82,383 posts)
90. this is not Europe
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 02:33 PM
Jul 2016

Europe has nothing to do with the massive loss Trump will be suffering in November.

demmiblue

(36,824 posts)
3. I can't say that I am unconcerned... this election season has been so unpredictable.
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 08:42 AM
Jul 2016

I really hope that Hillary picks a VP who is dynamic and who can take on Trump's rhetoric.

I never, ever wanted Elizabeth Warren to be the VP pick because I think her voice is crucial in the Senate, but she may be the best solution.

* Be prepared for the barrage of, "you're concern is duly noted."

socialist_n_TN

(11,481 posts)
7. Looks like Tim Kaine though........
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 08:46 AM
Jul 2016

NOT going to help with economic progressives OR people who hate the trade agreements.

demmiblue

(36,824 posts)
11. Yeah, I also didn't realize he was a proponent of Right to Work for Less in his state.
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 08:51 AM
Jul 2016

I am also not fond of his stance on choice/reproduction education... a few too many strings attached.

I am hoping that the rumors of his impending VPship are a sleight of hand on the part of Hillary's team.

FLPanhandle

(7,107 posts)
27. Better appeal to independents
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 09:27 AM
Jul 2016

They are key to Trump winning.

Keep the Independents from swaying to Trump and Hillary has the White House.

socialist_n_TN

(11,481 posts)
35. A few things here.......
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 10:09 AM
Jul 2016

For this statement to be true, you have to look at indys as a monolithic bloc and they're not. In fact, per Gallup, a slightly higher percentage (18%) of independents are classed as "Democratic leaning independents" which probably means they're to the LEFT of Kaine. I think this is logical because IF they weren't to the left of the Dems, they would just be Dems and not independents "leaning" Democratic. 16% are "Republican leaning independents" and those are probably a lock for Trump or maybe Johnson. There's only 10% that MIGHT be swayed away from Trump by a neo-liberal Democratic like Kaine as the Veep choice. And of course, all of them won't be swayed. Will Kaine win or lose more independents? I think that he'll lose more than he'll win.

Also choosing Kaine locks Clinton in as the "establishment" candidate in an election year where "establishment" is a dirty word. If this were any election year within the last 40 years, then Kaine would be the "safe" choice. Not this year.

FLPanhandle

(7,107 posts)
45. Good points
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 11:07 AM
Jul 2016

I think those to the left of Kaine aren't going for Trump regardless. I don't believe the right leaning independents, however, are a "lock for Trump".

A 10% swing in the independent vote will determine the election.

yourpaljoey

(2,166 posts)
57. A terrible selection
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 11:57 AM
Jul 2016

This will push Indies to go Green.
Why not at least make believe you are trying to
work with Sanders supporters?

 

bigwillq

(72,790 posts)
4. He always had a chance of winning
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 08:43 AM
Jul 2016

Any R nominee had a chance of winning. With a two-party system dominating our politic, the R and D both have a 50 percent chance of WINNING.

 

BobbyDrake

(2,542 posts)
5. Concernucopia! Such an abundance of concern around here!
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 08:44 AM
Jul 2016

Anyone who wants to boost Trump while pretending to be progressive should probably be over on that Pinebagger website.

 

BobbyDrake

(2,542 posts)
9. You're efforts are obvious. Please stop trying to demoralize us.
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 08:49 AM
Jul 2016

That's what is truly rude. The Pinebaggers will give you all the upvotes you're looking for.

 

BobbyDrake

(2,542 posts)
85. You're confusing "disagreeing with you" with "rude," which is your mistake.
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 01:50 PM
Jul 2016

Don't talk about posting as you see fit and then try telling me what to do. That's called hypocrisy.

FLPanhandle

(7,107 posts)
17. Concern posts don't provide actions
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 09:04 AM
Jul 2016

I tried to list the key reasons people are coming around to Trump and tried to provide some thoughts.

I didn't consider that a "concern" post.

 

BobbyDrake

(2,542 posts)
30. No, it's a "scared" post. "Scared" is the new "Concerned."
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 09:44 AM
Jul 2016

Real liberals aren't going to treat Islamaphobia as anything other than brainless prejudice.

Socal31

(2,484 posts)
33. Nobody here is trying to rationalize, promote, or support xenophobia, as far as I can see.
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 09:59 AM
Jul 2016

Understanding why fear and bigotry are currently resonating with a larger percentage of the electorate than usual is useful and important. But that isn't the same as accepting the ideology.

 

BobbyDrake

(2,542 posts)
38. The OP is using Republican logic to endorse stopping immigration.
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 10:15 AM
Jul 2016

The big giveaway was the open hysterics about Angela Merkel. If you want to board that train, be my guest, but don't expect to see many genuine liberals board with you.

Mike Nelson

(9,944 posts)
10. One thing you...
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 08:50 AM
Jul 2016

...didn't mention - Hillary Clinton knows this very, very well. She has never been "coronated" to be "queen" of anything. She's had to focus and fight every step of the way. She does not take the Presidency for granted, either. I don't believe she ever believed the "media" pronouncements. She is never handed anything. She is prepared and will address Trump effectively, I believe.

tallahasseedem

(6,716 posts)
25. +1
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 09:23 AM
Jul 2016

She has taken over 25 years of this shit and there's no way she's going to let it stop her this year. I'm looking forward to the convention, and most importantly, the debates!

PJMcK

(21,998 posts)
15. Optimism!
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 09:00 AM
Jul 2016

You expressed your concerns effectively, FLPanhandle, but I'd suggest you take a deep breath. Hillary Clinton has this. Her campaign will shred Donald Trump and expose him for the utter phony he is.

This is going to be an ugly fight because Mr. Trump is the exploded exaggeration of the Ugly American who will fling his feces all around to create discord. Secretary Clinton, I'm confident, already has war plans in place.

Personal experiences can be unsettling but they very rarely reflect a scientific analysis of the country at large. After Labor Day, watch the polls and how they reflect the Electoral College votes. I'm hopeful we'll see the harbingers of a tremendous win by Mrs. Clinton.

FLPanhandle

(7,107 posts)
18. Thanks for that post.
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 09:06 AM
Jul 2016

I am still optimistic! Just rather shocked at the turn around of some friends and family.

Looking forward to next weeks rebuttal.

roamer65

(36,744 posts)
16. I don't see Trumpf winning in November.
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 09:00 AM
Jul 2016

It is a long political road and with the infighting in the Rethug party he will not be able to come out of "primary" mode. I think there are going to be significant defections to Gary Johnson and Trumpf may even finish in 3rd place.

PSPS

(13,580 posts)
22. Sorry, but it's just the opposite.
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 09:15 AM
Jul 2016

Outside the rump base of 20 - 25% that define the contemporary GOP, exemplified by the attendees at the convention, Trump's speech was an utter disaster. The key thing to ask yourself is this: will his speech bring new voters to this 20 - 25%? Obviously not, much the same as his VP pick won't either.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
24. His appeal is limited to about 40% of voting population.
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 09:21 AM
Jul 2016

He cant bust out of that without a serious personality change. Maybe a lobotomy would help.

 

ericson00

(2,707 posts)
26. you do have a very good point here:
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 09:24 AM
Jul 2016
Secondly, yell Islamophobia all you want, but people do not trust the Ideology nor what it stands for. Hillary needs to address this fear, not belittle it. She needs to explain the vetting process and that we will not be opening the doors wide a la Merkel.


That's what I said! This is what could cost her the election if she doesn't.

liberal N proud

(60,332 posts)
28. You don't think the 4 days of fear and hate will push some away?
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 09:27 AM
Jul 2016

The delegates that were at the convention making it look like everyone (but Cruz) has drank the magic potion and fallen in love with Trump. That is not America, those people are not America, they are a boil on the ass of an over inflated clown who pushed all the other clowns out of the car through the very things we saw on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday nights. By Thursday, they had purged all the non conformist and placed only the Kool-Aid drinking hard core republicans in the arena.

 

DanM

(341 posts)
29. Settle down. All that's happened is the Repugs have gone insane this cycle.
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 09:27 AM
Jul 2016

Even if Drumpf got all expected turn-out and votes from Repugs, they are a minority of the general electorate. Repug insanity is not an indicator of what the general result will be.

heresAthingdotcom

(160 posts)
32. Romney had a Chance of Winning....
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 09:49 AM
Jul 2016

and on election day 2012 Romney was shellshocked when he lost....

Mitt Romney's campaign got its first hint something was wrong on the afternoon of Election Day, when state campaign workers on the ground began reporting huge turnout in areas favorable to President Obama: northeastern Ohio, northern Virginia, central Florida and Miami-Dade.
Then came the early exit polls that also were favorable to the president.
But it wasn't until the polls closed that concern turned into alarm. They expected North Carolina to be called early. It wasn't. They expected Pennsylvania to be up in the air all night; it went early for the President.
After Ohio went for Mr. Obama, it was over, but senior advisers say no one could process it.
"We went into the evening confident we had a good path to victory," said one senior adviser. "I don't think there was one person who saw this coming."

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/adviser-romney-shellshocked-by-loss/

the last RCP average poll before the election in 2012 showed President Obama up by .7 of a percent....
http://www.stanleyyelnats.com/2016-polls.html

and some polls showed Romney winning..... Rasmussen and Gallup....President Obama won by 4% and 5 million votes and received more than 300 electoral votes....

Hillary Clinton is performing better in some Demographics than President Obama did in 2012 and better than some that Romney won ... White Americans with College Educations... Romney won by 14% in 2012 and lost by 5 million votes.... Hillary is beating Trump in that demographic from 5% to 10% a swing from 2012 by 15% to 20%.....

there is a simple reason President Obama won in 2012 and that reason is simply this.... President Obama got 5 million more votes than Romney...

In 2012 White Voters made up 72% of the voting population.... President Obama received 39% and Romney 59%... in 2016 the White Voter Population has dropped to 69%....

a recent poll showed Clinton leading Trump 47%-40% with registered voters, and 49%-41% with likely voters, “Clinton has the support of 87% of Democrats and Trump has the support of 84% of Republicans, while independents split 42% for Clinton and 37% for Trump. The gender gap is particularly large, Clinton leads among women by 27 points (57%–30%) while Trump leads among men by 13 points (50%–37%). Clinton also holds a commanding advantage among black, Hispanic and Asian voters (72%–17%), while Trump leads among white voters (49%–38%).”

Hillary is performing 1 percent less than President Obama but Trump is performing 10% less than Romney

Republican strategist Whit Ayres lays out the numbers in his thoughtful guide to the demographics of the next election, “2016 and Beyond: How Republicans Can Elect a President in the New America.”

By Mr. Ayres’s calculations, a 2016 Democratic nominee who matches Mr. Obama’s 39% share of white voters will need to win 75% of nonwhites—a smaller share than the 82% Mr. Obama carried in 2012.


A recent poll shows Hillary winning the non white demographic with a 77% share....

An ABC News/Washington Post poll released Sunday has Clinton leading among nonwhite voters by the biggest margin yet: 77 percent of nonwhite voters side with the presumptive Democratic nominee, compared with 15 percent who prefer her Republican counterpart.

In 2012 the Voters broke for President Obama and there is nothing that suggest that the same won't happen in 2016, the voters will break for Hillary....

It will be close and every vote will be necessary .... recent events with voter rights will help as Republicans can't suppress the Votes of Democrats....

Democrats need to drive the turn out up to 122 million or more... I think Hillary will win in November... and I will do my share to make certain she does.... as every other American who doesn't want the FASCIST Trump to win....

mountain grammy

(26,600 posts)
36. Of course we should be concerned, but let's not panic.
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 10:10 AM
Jul 2016

Meantime, a boring, unknown, weak VP pick from Hillary will not be helpful. Elizabeth Warren is the only pick who will give us the landslide we need... in my opinion. Corey Booker would be another good choice.

SticksnStones

(2,108 posts)
37. I thought that at first too...
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 10:11 AM
Jul 2016

I thought, America is going to view this party that's going on over in Cleveland and want to jump on board. A kind of " I'm in with the In-Crowd".

But then I remembered that this will be the last time in this process that we'll view this great concentration of everyone who hates Hillary all together in one room screaming about it all at the same time. So yeah, maybe a bump from the spectacle of it all but people have short memories. And the hoopla of this convention will be diluted over these next months with the narrative of his actual words and his actual deeds.

Remember the end of the movie, "The Ed Show"? Scene after scene of people sitting in their homes, glued to the tv, completely engrossed with what happens next to Ed? And then it's over, Ed leaves the soundstage and they all go back to their lives. I believe the final line in the film "what else is on?"

This has been four days of The Trump Show. It's over. She's next.

Fresh_Start

(11,330 posts)
41. sadly, I also have some relatives on the TrumpWagon
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 10:23 AM
Jul 2016

I fear dementia in one of them who's been a hard drinker for a long time
And ordinary US/THEM anti-Democratic party lack of thinking in the others.

 

ChisolmTrailDem

(9,463 posts)
42. This is an anti-establishment election. We chose an establishment nominee. Now, we...
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 10:24 AM
Jul 2016

...have to live with it.

Lint Head

(15,064 posts)
43. Trump is loud and makes news. The media covers every sneeze every
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 10:53 AM
Jul 2016

fart. He is the squeaking wheel that gets the grease. Someone needs to really humiliate him and shut his ass down. I sure hope Hillary can do it. If Elizabeth Warren were her vice president pick I think Trump could be smothered in his own bile.

 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
44. America is really NOT suffering from "uncontrolled immigration"
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 11:07 AM
Jul 2016

Likewise, terrorism is a very modest threat to Americans.

Lastly, anyone who think the Republicans are interested in jobs for working class people is a MORON.

And there we have it. MORONS are voting GOP. They are frightened little children who want a strongman to take control of their lives and protect them from those "others" that "threaten" them.

Trump is Vladimir Putin with bad hair.

Calculating

(2,955 posts)
46. Hillary needs to backtrack on the migrant issue
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 11:27 AM
Jul 2016

Most people I know are VERY uncomfortable with allowing more muslim migrants into our country. They've seen the recent horrors in Europe and want no part of it. It's very easy to scare them into voting for trump by saying Hillary will let in a bunch of Islamic migrants.

Arkana

(24,347 posts)
100. Too fucking bad for those people you know.
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 08:07 PM
Jul 2016

And I'm sure that Hillary saying this will TOTALLY stop Trump from saying Hillary wants open borders. Yep. Absolutely.

Calculating

(2,955 posts)
49. Unemployment is low
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 11:42 AM
Jul 2016

But most of the jobs are crappy service work and pay low wages. Meaningful employment is the problem. Manufacturing jobs were the backbone of our country during the good times, and those jobs are almost gone now.

Vinca

(50,237 posts)
50. We have to keep reminding ourselves of what he polls with black people and Latinos.
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 11:47 AM
Jul 2016

He's much, much, much lower than Romney and, according to those who know more than I do, can't win with those numbers.

The Velveteen Ocelot

(115,615 posts)
54. He will get the votes of a majority of old white guys.
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 11:51 AM
Jul 2016

What he won't get is any significant number of the votes of Latinos, African Americans, women, immigrants, Muslims, LGBT people, or the disabled. He can't win with just the old white guys.

Nevertheless, we can't be complacent, so every effort should be made to GOTV.

 

The_Casual_Observer

(27,742 posts)
58. Trump offers the hope of jobs contingent on trade barriers and rewriting treaties or some such
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 12:00 PM
Jul 2016

nonsense. This will never happen. Perhaps he doesn't understand this because he just makes this shit up as he goes along.

Fools listen to his rants about lowing taxes while at the same time spending money on gigantic infrastructure projects and eat it up.

brush

(53,743 posts)
59. Calm down. There are no longer enough angry, racist whites to win a national election . . .
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 12:02 PM
Jul 2016

anymore.

We outnumber them. Trump will get the traditional post-convention bounce but the Dem convention is next and that will be negated after our convention is over, then the real campaigning will begin.

We've got Obama, Biden, Warren, Sanders, Michelle et al to campaign with and for Hillary.

Who do they have, hell half the repug party wouldn't even show up at their own convention.

And wait for the debates. Hillary will run circles around Trump's lack of knowledge.

We got this. We just have to get out the vote.

Wounded Bear

(58,605 posts)
61. I don't see how the convention improved his chances...
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 12:04 PM
Jul 2016

He's still preaching to his base. He tried to sound more 'moderate' and 'presidential' and it is obvious he has been working on his teleprompter reading skills, but he's still an asshole. I don't really see a lot of centrists or Indies being swayed by that.

I don't expect a big bounce from that event, and it will vaporize as the Dem convention convenes. The Hillary post convention bounce won't dissipate as quickly as the Trump wavelet.

Nobody is ignoring Trump, to be sure. Hill and her team are taking him very seriously.

Miles Archer

(18,837 posts)
62. In direct proportion to the role that blind anger plays in the polls
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 12:07 PM
Jul 2016

He appears to appeal to the people who are angry and see no way out.

So the formula for success, in my opinion, is to acknowledge the anger without buying into it and offering legitimate, workable solutions.

So that, and it's a landslide for Clinton.

Don't do that, not so much of a landslide and there is Trump's window of opportunity. People are pissed off and disillusioned and that needs to be appropriately addressed.

dembotoz

(16,785 posts)
67. to badly paraphrase jim hightower...turn out is based on turn on.
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 12:26 PM
Jul 2016

the gop has all these folks who hate hrc....strong visceral hate
they will vote
trump has turned on the bigots
they will vote

dem turnout???? i am not impressed by what i see

 

Matrosov

(1,098 posts)
69. Perhaps I'm one of the few who can relate
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 12:37 PM
Jul 2016

I also live in a deep red area of the country. I live in a conservative bastion within the Deep South. About 99.5% of the people around me are hardcore evangelical Republicans.

So far not all of them have been supportive of Trump. Not because they are concerned about the way he speaks about Latinos and Muslims, but because of some of the 'liberal' arguments he has made in the past. In other words, he is not consistently conservative enough for their taste.

This convention has changed many of those minds. There is now a certain energy to go out and defeat 'Crooked Hillary' and the 'communist, liberal, elite establishment' by voting for Trump. The only people I know who are now less fond of Trump are those who are evangelical to the point that they didn't appreciate Trump talking about protecting the LGBTQ community.

I don't think I've ever been as frightened during an election cycle..

dawg

(10,621 posts)
70. Those people were going to vote for the Republican nominee regardless.
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 12:40 PM
Jul 2016

Anyone with an (R) beside their name is guaranteed 45% of the vote (and much more than that in the panhandle).

But his chances are still less than Rubio or even Cruz would have had.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,708 posts)
71. I am confused.
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 12:43 PM
Jul 2016

We were instructed on this board that Hillary was Rambo in a pantsuit. Now we are being instructed she is Mr. Rogers.


SMH

emulatorloo

(44,072 posts)
78. Additionally, GOP convention did NOTHING but appeal to their Deranged Base
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 01:08 PM
Jul 2016

There was no attempt to attract mainstream GE voters. Nothing designed to broaden their appeal to people who aren't bigots and rabid conspiracy theorists.

I for one am not going to wring my hands and sit on my fat ass. GOTV!

 

beachbum bob

(10,437 posts)
73. Trump can only win if Democrats sit on their asses....
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 12:55 PM
Jul 2016

And if they do....we deserve what will happen....any talk about 3rd party might as well say elect trump....we have one choice...and it is clear..

deathrind

(1,786 posts)
81. Hmmmm...
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 01:14 PM
Jul 2016

Many, many people thought that there was no way Trump could be the republican nominee...surprise...

Anyone who thinks that there is no chance trump could be elected as POTUS. That the electorate will simply not do that does not have a grasp on the reality of the situation. As saddening as it is to say it is a very real possibility. HRC must address the issues the OP mentioned trade/immigration and more.

RAFisher

(466 posts)
82. Your fears are justified. The polls are tightening and Clinton is only polling at 44%
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 01:15 PM
Jul 2016

The next couple weeks of polling will be very important. Will Trump get a bump from the RNC? Will Clinton get a bump from the DNC? It's not sensationalize.

 

Hell Hath No Fury

(16,327 posts)
84. I come from a State that elected --
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 01:29 PM
Jul 2016

...two mediocre actors to their Statehouse. I have NEVER laughed about Trump making it to the White House.

If HRC is thinking she can just wait it out until Trump implodes and win, she is DANGEROUSLY wrong.

edhopper

(33,491 posts)
86. post convention bump
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 01:58 PM
Jul 2016

still put him behind Hillary.
I wouldn't worry to much. Let's just work hard to get her elected.

backscatter712

(26,355 posts)
87. I'm concerned, but on the bright side, his delivery was bad last night.
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 02:10 PM
Jul 2016

He was going off the teleprompter instead of doing his usual ad-libbing, which made him really stiff, and robbed him of the usual nasty humor he uses to rile up his neckbreathers.

Instead, he was extremely long-winded, and he tried to compensate for lagging attention by bellowing at the top of his lungs.

He was incredibly negative and fear-mongering, which is red meat for his base, but does little to bring in new voters. And since those of us on our side of the aisle are concluding that his speech was better in the original German, it only motivates us to work harder to win this election.

lovemydog

(11,833 posts)
95. I agree.
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 05:03 PM
Jul 2016

Clinton and all of us democrats can help by explaining clearly without denigrating undecideds.

If anyone here can address these concerns without insulting, or using bumper sticker jokes, sarcasm or platitudes it would be much appreciated.

 

Darb

(2,807 posts)
96. Sounds like you believe their bullshit.
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 05:09 PM
Jul 2016

What "uncontrolled immigration"? There already is a controlled, strenuous "vetting process", but believe me, you couldn't tell that to anyone in the FL panhandle, I know, I used to live in Jackson and Holmes Counties and those folks don't want to hear it. Move out for your sanity's sake.

0rganism

(23,932 posts)
101. he's had "a chance" ever since he stepped on stage at the primaries
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 08:16 PM
Jul 2016

thing is, HRC has a much better chance

fwiw, i've stopped laughing at trump too, he's not even funny anymore, and having people taking him seriously will further diminish his chances


doc03

(35,300 posts)
102. If I had to make a bet my money would be on Trump, everyone has been
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 08:33 PM
Jul 2016

wrong about him since the start. The man is a genius on promoting himself, that is what he has done his entire life.

 

Grey Lemercier

(1,429 posts)
105. please stop these posts that try to hurt our morale
Fri Jul 22, 2016, 11:25 PM
Jul 2016

We WILL win, and we do not need this type of fear porn.

 

melman

(7,681 posts)
111. Only a fool thinks it's impossible for their opponent to win
Sat Jul 23, 2016, 05:29 AM
Jul 2016

Or that acknowledging the possibility is 'concern trolling' , or 'fear porn'.

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