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Sat Jul 30, 2016, 07:00 PM

 

Talking heads said Trump got 5 point bump in polls

He did NOT. His RCP bounce was a mediocre 3.6 points.

This same taking head also said Hillary might get no bounce at all (she already has).

WTF??

Lazy journalism.

28 replies, 2541 views

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Arrow 28 replies Author Time Post
Reply Talking heads said Trump got 5 point bump in polls (Original post)
Charles Bukowski Jul 2016 OP
liberal N proud Jul 2016 #1
TexasProgresive Jul 2016 #6
liberal N proud Jul 2016 #16
StraightRazor Jul 2016 #2
Charles Bukowski Jul 2016 #3
StraightRazor Jul 2016 #5
StraightRazor Jul 2016 #24
Zambero Jul 2016 #4
StraightRazor Jul 2016 #7
Warren DeMontague Jul 2016 #10
StraightRazor Jul 2016 #17
Zambero Jul 2016 #21
StraightRazor Jul 2016 #22
Warren DeMontague Jul 2016 #25
StraightRazor Jul 2016 #26
Drunken Irishman Jul 2016 #23
panader0 Jul 2016 #8
calimary Jul 2016 #9
Warren DeMontague Jul 2016 #11
calimary Jul 2016 #14
Warren DeMontague Jul 2016 #15
Charles Bukowski Jul 2016 #18
shadowmayor Jul 2016 #12
Skittles Jul 2016 #13
obnoxiousdrunk Jul 2016 #19
Skittles Jul 2016 #20
still_one Jul 2016 #27
cheapdate Jul 2016 #28

Response to Charles Bukowski (Original post)

Sat Jul 30, 2016, 07:02 PM

1. Imagine what this election would be like if the talking heads were not biased

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Response to liberal N proud (Reply #1)

Sat Jul 30, 2016, 07:26 PM

6. Imagine what it would be like with less talking heads and more real journalism.

These people only have their opinions to offer. There is no real work being done to check facts and bring the truth to light. "Opinions are like assholes, everybody has one and the all stink."

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Response to TexasProgresive (Reply #6)

Sat Jul 30, 2016, 08:13 PM

16. I remember when we had those

Just the facts

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Response to Charles Bukowski (Original post)

Sat Jul 30, 2016, 07:06 PM

2. Neither candidate is likely to get much of a bounce from either convention...

 

the lines are drawn - either people are with the Abomination or they're with HRC.

The key to winning will be who gets more of their voters to actually vote...no one is undecided.

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Response to StraightRazor (Reply #2)

Sat Jul 30, 2016, 07:11 PM

3. Maybe, maybe not.

 

Clinton trailed Trump consistently on conservative-leaning Rasmussen for months, yet she was +1 in their latest poll. That poll was taken early in the DNC.

Some state polls taken mid-conventiom were eye-popping too (PA, MS). Huge bumps for Clinton.

A 6 point RCP bounce is possible.

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Response to Charles Bukowski (Reply #3)

Sat Jul 30, 2016, 07:18 PM

5. I'm not saying there won't be any bounce at all...

 

just that the days of a solid, meaningful bounce are over, there just isn't enough wiggle room to the left or the right. We've become too polarized - especially with our two nominees.

We'll see what's what when it all plays out.

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Response to Charles Bukowski (Reply #3)


Response to StraightRazor (Reply #2)

Sat Jul 30, 2016, 07:15 PM

4. Both candidates have high unfavorable percentages

That should indicate a higher than usual number of undecided voters who are not enamored of either. The lines will be drawn in the weeks ahead, but I sense some fluidity at the moment.

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Response to Zambero (Reply #4)

Sat Jul 30, 2016, 07:31 PM

7. Interesting point...

 

Most people that I know in the real world (who are not DU or Right Wing partisans) are generally not particularly happy that it's the Abomination Vs. Clinton and wish there was an alternative, but going third party either way is recognized by both sides to not be the answer because of how much is at stake and as such feel pretty trapped.

With regard to the fluidity suggestion, I respectfully disagree - the contrasting choice is so stark this time out that moving the needle one way or the other seems less likely to me than in just about any other general that I can remember (I began voting in '88 so I don't have decades upon decades of experience however). I just have a hard time seeing anyone who is a supporter of the Abomination moving towards Clinton or vice versa, there just seems to be such deep visceral aversion to one or the other.



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Response to StraightRazor (Reply #2)

Sat Jul 30, 2016, 07:38 PM

10. Our convention kicked ass and took names.

Not much bounce, bullshit.

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Response to Warren DeMontague (Reply #10)

Sat Jul 30, 2016, 08:13 PM

17. To us it did...

 

to the half of the country who are Republicans and the rabid Abomination supporters it did not.

Just like theirs did nothing for us except to solidify our dislike.

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Response to StraightRazor (Reply #17)

Sat Jul 30, 2016, 11:21 PM

21. It needed to

For a successful GOTV there needs to be a degree of enthusiasm displayed, and the convention helped that along.

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Response to Zambero (Reply #21)

Sat Jul 30, 2016, 11:25 PM

22. I agree completely...

 

it was a great week and displayed in stark contrast the differences between the Democratic and Republican world views and galvanized us into voting for more than just 'not Trump'.

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Response to StraightRazor (Reply #17)

Sat Jul 30, 2016, 11:46 PM

25. Your concern is noted.

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Response to Warren DeMontague (Reply #25)

Sat Jul 30, 2016, 11:48 PM

26. Great !!!!

 

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Response to StraightRazor (Reply #2)

Sat Jul 30, 2016, 11:28 PM

23. It depends - the bump will come from those who were leaning third party or undecided.

She's not going to chip away at Trump voters - and he's not going to win over any more voters. Hillary's battle is convincing third party voters to come back to her. If she does only marginally, she wins. If she does so significantly, it's a landslide.

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Response to Charles Bukowski (Original post)

Sat Jul 30, 2016, 07:33 PM

8. Another Bukowski fan eh?

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Response to Charles Bukowski (Original post)

Sat Jul 30, 2016, 07:38 PM

9. I've seen equal shares of pundits who speculate that Hillary MAY get a bounce -

and MAYBE it'll be as big as five points, but surely no bigger.

SO just today, I'm seeing some early results, already - one of which gives her a six-point lead, and a TEN-point lead in another one.

SHEESH - bias much? I find myself speculating with my husband that on her inauguration day, watch the media openly imagine what Trump's or even a Sanders inauguration would have been like... I'm sure they'll find some way to diminish hers. She gets no respect. There are people like Andrea Mitchell who would NOT give Hillary a break if her life depended on it.

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Response to calimary (Reply #9)

Sat Jul 30, 2016, 07:39 PM

11. fucking pundits.

I have an opinion, ergo, I'm a pundit too.

I think our convention was extremely persuasive and no fucking way we don't get a big ol' bounce from it.

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Response to Warren DeMontague (Reply #11)

Sat Jul 30, 2016, 07:50 PM

14. Totally.

I see this even today. Smerconish on CNN even led into one part of the discussion on his show confessing a really nauseating assumption about the Khans - those still-grieving parents of that brave young soldier who was killed in Iraq who took EVERYONE'S breath away at the Democratic convention. He said he figured, at first, that they were simply nobodies who had been booked to "lower the bar" so that Hillary's speech later in the evening would seem better by comparison. I almost threw something at the TV!!! Are you fucking KIDDING ME, you asshole? You're THAT cynical about the motivation for booking that sweet, sorrowful couple? You have THAT low a regard for Hillary and company???? FUCK YOU MICHAEL SMERCONISH. ,,/,

I swear - shit like this makes me want to fight harder for her to win. If I have to carry her, bodily, across the finish line by myself!

,,/, ,,/,

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Response to calimary (Reply #14)

Sat Jul 30, 2016, 08:03 PM

15. What an ass.

The fact is, the Khans were incredibly persuasive and powerful. Anyone who actually watched knows that. Trump knows it, for sure.

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Response to calimary (Reply #14)

Sat Jul 30, 2016, 08:58 PM

18. That's an idiotic opinion

 

considering "you have sacrificed nothing" was the defining moment of a highly memorable convention. The Khans were anything but filler.

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Response to Charles Bukowski (Original post)

Sat Jul 30, 2016, 07:43 PM

12. It's the horse race stupid!

The entire corporate media will promote a tight race story every chance they get. A run-away candidate makes for little news, little advertising, and even less analyses. I can't imagine there are millions of Americans who find themselves undecided at this point?

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Response to Charles Bukowski (Original post)

Sat Jul 30, 2016, 07:48 PM

13. women have to do twice as good to be considered half as good

it is nothing new

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Response to Skittles (Reply #13)

Sat Jul 30, 2016, 09:05 PM

19. Women and people of color

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Response to obnoxiousdrunk (Reply #19)

Sat Jul 30, 2016, 09:19 PM

20. true, but

if you want to know which is worse, women got the right to vote much, much later

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Response to Charles Bukowski (Original post)

Sat Jul 30, 2016, 11:49 PM

27. It is what the MSM has been doing for decades, pushing R/W talking points

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Response to Charles Bukowski (Original post)

Sat Jul 30, 2016, 11:54 PM

28. Fox News, I assume?

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