Is the reign of the 747 coming to an end?
When Pan American World Airways and Lufthansa asked Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) to build a plane that had double the capacity of the 707, the aircraft maker did the obvious thing: they piled one single-aisle 707 on top of another to create a plane with two full-length decks (see photo at the end of this story). Building a plane with two aisles and 10 seats per row was inconceivable. Except to Joe Sutter, the engineer Boeing assigned to the project as chief engineer.
Sutter, who died last week at the age of 95, convinced both his masters and Boeing’s customers that the dual-aisle design was the right way to go, and the rest, as the saying goes, is history. For a fuller description of Sutter’s contributions to the aircraft industry, there’s a nice tribute at Leeham News.
Ironically perhaps, Sutter’s death seems to be a portent for the coming end of the 747. The first 747-100 was put into service in 1970, and those first planes sold at a list price of $24 million. Adjusting for inflation, that same 747 would sell today for more than $149 million, less than half the actual price of a new 747-8 passenger jet that lists for $378.5 million or the freighter version at $379.1 million. Boeing hasn’t got many buyers for its humpbacked plane, but price is not the problem.
Since January of 2015 Boeing has taken orders for just 10 747s, and it has a total of 21 jumbo jets on its backlog: 10 passenger jets and 11 freighters. Beginning this month, Boeing plans to cut production of the planes from one per month to just 0.5 per month.
In late July, Boeing lowered the number of 747s in its program accounting block from 1,574 planes to 1,555 and took a pretax charge of $1.2 billion against the program. In a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the company added:
If we are unable to obtain sufficient orders and/or market, production and other risks cannot be mitigated, we could record additional losses that may be material, and it is reasonably possible that we could decide to end production of the 747.
http://247wallst.com/aerospace-defense/2016/09/03/how-much-does-a-747-cost-inventor-dies-as-boeing-cuts-planes-production/?yptr=yahoo
The issue is cost. The 747 has 4 engines that guzzle gas. So if the plane is not fully-booked, the airline could actually lose money on the flight depending on fuel prices. Advancements on jet engine technology allowed the creation of twin-jet planes that can travel long distances at more efficiency. Planes such as the 777 and Airbus's A330 become the future. Now Boeing has high hopes for new 787 Dreamliner, which is lighter, and the upcoming 777x. So the 747 is simply becoming too expensive to operate for most modern applications compared to the newer technology.
Still, many have a strong emotional attachment to the 747, a plane that revolutionized air travel.
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