Is the CNN poll for real?

[kentuck]

The one that shows Trump up by 2% over Hillary?

Supposedly, it was likely voters that were polled, usually a little more accurate than registered voters.

Is this an "outlier" poll?

Also, I do not believe that Johnson (Libertarian) takes votes away from Hillary. I think he takes Republican votes and they want some folks to think otherwise...

[lapfog_1]

1. Yes and no

so they changed to likely voters instead of registered voters (so you can't compare to previous CNN polls).

And, they also decided to over sample republican voters as if this was a midterm election.

As I recall they sampled something like 32 % republican, 28% democrat, and 40% independent.

This is not the usual "likely voter" percentages in a presidential election... in fact, those numbers are way off.

[former9thward]

7. "in fact, those numbers are way off. "

Since you are are professional pollster what are the numbers?

[renegade000]

8. self-reported democrats always a bit higher than republicans

For a couple of decades at least now. The fact that the original "unskewed polls" guy everyone was making fun of in 2012 was "unskewing" the polls to make the GOP and Democratic sample EQUAL (and predicted a Romney victory), should give you some indication about how off this current poll is in its demographic assumptions.

[Cicada]

2. They expect whites will flood the polls

Maybe early voting in white vs hispanic districts will help us test that idea.

[C_U_L8R]

3. They exclude millennials?

The largest segment of the population...

[davidn3600]

4. Not worth losing any sleep over it

It's 1 one poll taken 2 months out before we've even had the debates.

I'd be more worried about the general trend in the polls taken as a whole which does seem to show the race tightening. Perhaps Trump being tamed a bit has brought some uneasy Republicans back into the fray. Clinton's big leads was mainly due to those Republicans peeling away. But I always assumed those voters were eventually come back. So the tightening isn't surprising if that is the reason for it.

As for Johnson...who knows. I've read some pollsters say that so far they don't see either Johnson or Stein making any real significant difference.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. It's one poll in a handful.

In 2012, in their final election poll, CNN had Obama and Romney tied.

Obama won by 4%.

[Loki Liesmith]

6. This is an impossible question to answer. Instead, average all the polls

taken in the last week or so. That's the only way you will get close to an answer.

[Gman]

9. It could be that some Independents that were repulsed by Trump

And went to Hillary are finding they can't do that either. So they move to Johnson.

[pinboy3niner]

10. Among other flaws, they failed to take into account...

...the KMOD Poll. http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512401073

[MFM008]

11. no

You have the NBC poll thats holding pretty steady. This is when steady counts. It seems they throw in a ringer or 2 or 10 to keep her poll average down every poll .