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geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
1. it's that college-educated white Republicans are falling in line behind Trump
Wed Sep 14, 2016, 06:01 PM
Sep 2016

We also can't assume that Clinton won't perform more like Kerry than Obama when it comes to inspiring voter turnout.

 

Charles Bukowski

(1,132 posts)
2. Trump still struggles
Wed Sep 14, 2016, 06:09 PM
Sep 2016

to surpass 42% in the polls. There's nothing to suggest he'll inspire greater turnout than McCain or Romney, nevermind GWB.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
3. Problem is that there's every indication Clinton will underperform Obama's turnout
Wed Sep 14, 2016, 06:13 PM
Sep 2016

Young voters and African-Americans and the creative coalition are all more responsive to Obama than they are to Clinton.

The media is currently doing everything they can to help Trump win, and it's showing up in the polls.

Hopefully they'll stop trying to destroy the country in order to promote their own ratings.

 

Charles Bukowski

(1,132 posts)
4. But HRC clearly has advantages over Obama with White women
Wed Sep 14, 2016, 06:17 PM
Sep 2016

and college educated voters. So it evens out.

Trump would need to win White men vote by unprecedented margins to capture the presidency. That isn't going to happen.

That's why I'm questioning the demographics of these polls. The Bloomberg poll is already shady by using demographics from 2004, which is utterly ridiculous, and the CNN national poll that had Trump leading predicated that white voters w/o a college degree would make up 50% of the electorate, which is also ridiculous.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
5. Trump is winning white men by unprecedented margins. It can happen, it will be close regardless.
Wed Sep 14, 2016, 06:23 PM
Sep 2016

It's very possible that our base turnout levels will revert to 2004 with Clinton performing like Kerry instead of Obama in terms of driving turnout.

 

Charles Bukowski

(1,132 posts)
6. "Trump is winning white men by unprecedented margins"
Wed Sep 14, 2016, 06:26 PM
Sep 2016

No, he is not. The record is 65% by Reagan.

Trump isn't anywhere near that.

Cicada

(4,533 posts)
7. Racism and bigotry may rev people up
Wed Sep 14, 2016, 06:30 PM
Sep 2016

The trump voters say they are enthusiastic. They say they are certain to vote. The thought of lynchings and beatings of non white people gets their motors revved up. Lynch mobs are highly motivated. Maybe they will vote in high numbers. Hard to know.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
8. what's depressing is that Trump is showing just how popular racism is amongst white voters
Wed Sep 14, 2016, 06:33 PM
Sep 2016

Before they could just deny it and say it was about taxes and regulation.

But, truth be told a depressing number of white people want the government to keep non-whites 'in their place'

uponit7771

(90,335 posts)
9. I'm black, depressed and sKeered... the effect wont show up till 6 months after he's elected
Wed Sep 14, 2016, 06:46 PM
Sep 2016

... cause it'll be the slow simmer that boils everyone

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
10. we're already seeing it with his supporters becoming violent towards anyone who pisses them off
Wed Sep 14, 2016, 06:48 PM
Sep 2016

they sucker-punched an old woman wearing an oxygen mask the other day

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