Is Europe headed for a civil war?

[Albertoo]

I wish the issue would be addressed, or next thing we know, Trump will nuke Europe.
(but thankfully, I think Hillary is poised to win the election)

Why this is becoming a serious issue:

1/ the Paris and Brussels attacked illustrated there are radical ghettos in Europe

for Europe’s leaders, who now consider themselves at war with the Islamic State after large-scale terrorist attacks at home, the challenge is more complicated: The enemy’s hide-outs are ghettoized parts of Paris, Brussels and other European cities that amount to mini failed states inside their own borders.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/24/world/europe/a-quandary-for-europe-fighting-a-war-on-isis-within-its-borders.html?_r=0

2/ As ISIS is on the verge of being defeated, European radicals will return home

The European countries with the most residents either fighting in Syria or Iraq, planning to go to fight or having returned from the fight are France, with about 1,800 to 1,850; Germany and Britain, each with roughly 750 to 800; and Belgium, with 450,
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/26/us/politics/isis-spreading-in-europe-clapper-warns.html

3/ those experienced radicals have a larger base of disenfranchised sympathizers

Valls said nearly 15,000 people in France are being tracked because they are suspected of being in the process of radicalization, while 1,350 are under investigation — 293 of them for alleged links with a terrorism network.
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/09/11/world/europe/ap-eu-france-plot-arrest.html

4/ and the strategy of these returning radicals appears to be to drive a wedge between the Muslim population and the rest of society:

According to German newspaper Die Welt, Kepel said the terror group’s aim is to incite hatred towards Muslims from the rest of the society which would eventually radicalise others to the point that Europe could enter into full-blown civil war.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1775496/massive-european-civil-war-predicted-by-scholar-of-islam-who-says-jobless-young-muslims-are-increasingly-turning-to-radical-groups/

Not sure there's a straightforward American answer to this mess, but it sure will be a major concern in the years to come.

[Flatpicker]

1. While I think

We will see an American civil war happen before Europe splits, there is a lot of tension coming from the nationalists around the world.

I'm not sure it will become a hot war, but we are heading to some tipping point for humanity.

Something is up.

[Albertoo]

2. Agreed. the 2008 crisis is not over yet, and tension is rising all over

But we're also seeing the result of decades of oil money spent on totalitarian religious propaganda by the oil plutocrats in the silly hope of buying themselves peace at home while spending on champagne and hookers while abroad.

[smirkymonkey]

3. I'm pretty sure we'll beat them to it.

The way things are going over here.

[Albertoo]

4. Not many Americans went to fight with ISIS

Thousands of Europeans did.

[smirkymonkey]

9. No, not with ISIS, our Civil war will be with each other.

Again.

[LeftishBrit]

5. Probably not; but the rise of nationalism is scary

It's always existed. I'm not sure it's that much worse in Europe in general than it's sometimes been in the recent past. The LePen family have been a curse on France since what seems like the year dot -certainly since the early 80s.

And while the Islamist extremists are also a big problem, we have to remember that Europe has had a problem with terrorism of one sort or another for a very long time: the IRA and Protestant 'paramilitaries' in the UK; ETA in Spain; the Red Army Faction and other groups in Germany. Contrary to what you'd think from the media, the frequency and death toll from terrorist incidents in Europe was WORSE in the 1970s than it is now.

I don't think there would be civil war in most parts of Europe, however.

Nationalism, however, has brought the UK to the brink of a very bad social and economic mess, however. If not quite civil war, the equivalent of a country imposing sanctions on itself. And there is the risk of reigniting localized civil war in Northern Ireland.

It is never a good idea for a country to get itself so whipped up against outsiders that it ends up punishing itself. Please please don't do so yourselves in November!!!!!!

[True Dough]

7. You are right

There has been a spike in terrorism-related deaths in recent years but it still doesn't measure up to the death toll of the 70s and 80s.

[ronnie624]

12. That illustrates perfectly, the illogical nature of the GWOT.

We spend trlllions in resources, in an attempt to prevent 200 deaths per year, but the war on terror policies actually provoke an increase in terrorism.

[Albertoo]

13. Interesting graph

But the rate of foiled attacks seems to be picking up fast,
even before most ISIS jihadis even returned to Europe (which will mostly be next year)

[malaise]

6. Huh?

Europe is a country?

[Albertoo]

15. Your attempt at diversion hits the wall of the techinical definition

A civil war is a war between organized groups within the same state or country, or, less commonly, between two countries created from a formerly united state.

Most European countries were at one time or another formerly parts of united states
Charlemagne, Plantagenets, Habsburgs, Saint Roman German Empire, Napoleon, etc

Anyway, nice attempt at diversion from the central issue.

[muriel_volestrangler]

16. OK, the answer to your OP is 'no', then

because there is not, and will not, be an organized group trying to fight a war. There may be some terrorism, but not on the scale of the IRA, ETA, Red Army Faction etc. They weren't 'civil war', and any returning ISIS idiots won't be fighting one either.

The central issue is that your OP is fearmongering.

[Albertoo]

23. The premise of the OP is not mine, but that of European homeland security specialists

I did not relay the views of extremists like Gert Wilders or Marine Le Pen,
but of mild, soft spoken analyst Gilles Kepel (one of the world specialists on Islamism)
echoing the worries voiced by top British politicians about radicalization in Europe.

These moderate voices deserve a more attention than being brushed aside as fear mongering.

[LeftishBrit]

30. But the article was not by Keppel; it was an article in The Sun quoting him

The Sun is a Murdoch-owned British tabloid; notorious for its inaccuracies, dishonesty, and sensationalism. It is extremely anti-EU and no doubt helped to tip the vote in favour of 'Brexit',

[Albertoo]

39. The interview declarations are by Kepel

Bad as the Sun is, it's not down to altering the sentences printed in die Welt

[muriel_volestrangler]

37. What Kepel said in Die Welt is that terrorists would like to induce hatred of all Muslims

Der Terror in Europa ist nach den Worten des französischen Islamwissenschaftlers Gilles Kepel nicht in erster Linie Ausdruck eines Krieges zwischen dem Westen und dem Islam. „Der Terrorismus ist vor allem Ausdruck eines Krieges innerhalb des Islam“, sagte er im Deutschlandfunk.

Die dritte europäische Dschihadistengeneration wolle ein Klima des Schreckens in den europäischen Staaten verbreiten, das feindliche Reaktionen gegenüber allen Muslimen erzeugen soll, fügte er hinzu. Die Muslime sollten auf diese Weise radikalisiert werden. „Die Lage soll sich zu einem Bürgerkrieg entwickeln.“

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article158020269/Lage-in-Europa-soll-sich-zu-Buergerkrieg-entwickeln.html

Terror in Europe, in the words of the French Islamic scholar Gilles Kepel, is not primarily an expression of a war between the West and Islam. "Terrorism is above all an expression of a war within Islam," he said on Germany radio.

The third European Jihad generation wants to spread a climate of fear in European countries, which is to generate hostile reactions towards all Muslims, he added. Muslims could be radicalized in this way. "The situation could become a civil war."

So the point is not to spread fear about Muslims - he says the 'civil war' could come about if Muslims become generally hated. If you want to know how you, as an American, can help, then it's to stop making threads like this. And to stop using The Sun and unnamed 'top British politicians' as your justification.

[Albertoo]

38. I love that you contest my OP while quoting a passage that confirms it

The third European Jihad generation wants to spread a climate of fear in European countries, which is to generate hostile reactions towards all Muslims, he added. Muslims could be radicalized in this way. "The situation could become a civil war."

Two other points if I may:

-1- the rule about quoting RW sources is obviously intended not to echo RW opinions. It cannot reasonably apply to facts or expert opinions collected by RW media. The weather forecast stays valid even if it's on the webpages of InfoWars.

-2- casting doubt because I did not dot all i's and cross all the t's is a superficial way to deny the meaning. I just didn't take the time to google the name of the British senior official who mentioned views exactly parallel to those of Kepel.

One click gave me two (not the one I had in mind and might find later)
Met's head of special operations

UK will count cost of Islamic extremism for 'many years', says Cressida Dick
Met's head of special operations says youngsters radicalised in foreign conflict could commit violence when they return https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/22/uk-will-count-cost-of-islamic-extremism-for-many-years-says-cressida-dick

Britain’s most senior Muslim policeman

Muslims who stop shopping at Marks & Spencer could be radicals, warns top cop
Britain’s most senior Muslim policeman says teenagers who stop drinking and wearing western clothes may also be becoming extremists in stark warning
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11627620/Muslims-who-stop-shopping-at-Marks-and-Spencer-could-be-radicals-warns-top-cop.html

[muriel_volestrangler]

42. The point is that Kepel said the only way it could become a civil war is by demonisation of Muslims

and that means OPs like yours.

No, the British officials aren't talking about 'civil war'.

"the rule about quoting RW sources is obviously intended not to echo RW opinions." - exactly. That's why I wish you'd stop.

[Albertoo]

43. A major report released yesterday in a LW media contradicts your opinion

The Montaigne Institute (the exact same one which commissioned some of Kepel's work) released yesterday a new study on the "Islam of France" in the LW "Le Monde" daily. The study was conducted by Hakim El Karoui, a Muslim. And, to quote, the study is worrying.
http://www.lemonde.fr/religions/article/2016/09/19/grand-imam-redevance-sur-le-halal-cours-d-arabe-les-propositions-de-l-institut-montagne_4999882_1653130.html?xtmc=islam_institut_montaigne&xtcr=4

Summary of what I got by glancing through:
- the majority of Muslims just leave their peaceful daily lives (nothing new), but
- there is a strong radicalized minority of about 25% rejecting democratic values
- this 25% = roughly 50% of the younger French Muslims rejecting democratic values
- key finding: Islam is the flag of a social revolt (added to decades of wahabbi propaganda)
http://www.institutmontaigne.org/res/files/publications/institut_montaigne_-_un_islam_francais_est_possible.pdf

Therefore the driving causes of radicalization (economic + propaganda) run much deeper than any effect a cautionary voice like mine might have.

And it's confirmed by original, authorized and LW sources.

[LeftishBrit]

18. I don't think you can call that 'civil war'

Charlemagne was rather a long time ago!!! Would you say that the different states of the USA are not part of the same country, because they were once separate colonies?

Anyway, the answer is no. There is no evidence that Europaean countries will start fighting each other, much as people like Farage might like it if they did.

[Albertoo]

24. Treating the EU as one entity, I was referring to a civil war within it

[LeftishBrit]

29. The EU is not one entity and never has been.

Its existence does however help to reduce the risk of wars between countries.

Terrorism and intergroup violence within a country does not equal, or usually cause, civil war between the countries. We are talking basically about small groups of violent young men: religious fundamentalists versus racist nationalists. Neither type of group is an asset to society, or very safe to have around, but it is not as though they are determining the entire course of life within their countries, let alone between them. Even the Troubles in Northern Ireland, which might be described as a form of local civil war, did not spread to other countries (not even to the Republic of Ireland to any appreciable extent). And did not, in their entirety, kill anything as like as many people as are murdered with guns in the USA (let alone all murders in the USA) in any single year , yet you do not describe the USA as being in a state of civil war.

[Albertoo]

40. And yet, Kepel's use of 'civil war' makes sense

-1- the European society is an homogeneous body of democracies which are largely integrated (commerce, tourism, whatever)

-2- as detailed by Kepel, the hope of the Islamists (most notably ISIS) is to excite all European Muslims against their host societies, regardless of whether it's in Spain, Netherlands or Germany.

One state vs one homogeneous group, that pretty much fits the bill of a civil war, some technicalities aside: the EU is not a country as the US is, even though both entities have many common points.

[Dorian Gray]

36. I do not think there will be a civil war

I do think that there will be racial tensions, erupting into violence. And I suspect many countries and their people may bristle at the one Europe move, as the UK did. Brexit may lead the way for other countries to leave the Union.

[Victor_c3]

8. I believe that the chance of this leading to a European internal war is extremely low

I don't see how this will divide large swaths of people. It'll be a security mess, that much I do believe.

However, as mentioned above, I believe the US is much more likely to experience a civil upheaval than Europe. I don't believe that we'll end up dealing with all out war, but I don't think it would be unrealistic to think that in the next couple of decades we could see the Balkanization of the US as a result of the widening ideological gap that seems to be growing between the different regions.

[flamingdem]

10. Why let them back if it's obvious

they've been fighting with Isis?

[Albertoo]

14. Good question. Unsolved legal issues.

Most countries are signatories to a treaty which forbids to create stateless individuals.
Those ISIS jihadis mostly only hold their european nationality of origin.

[Iggo]

11. Europe doesn't have civil wars. They have World Wars. (n/t)

[LeftishBrit]

17. I assumed that he meant civil wars in individual countries

If he meant in Europe as a whole, this would not make much sense

[Albertoo]

28. to clarify Kepel's contention: a civil war between Muslims and non-Muslims

that's the point 4 of the OP with a link (couldn't find a direct English version of the Die Welt interview)

[LeftishBrit]

31. Not going to happen

There simply aren't enough Muslims in any Europaean country for civil war between Muslims and non-Muslims. The overall percentage of Muslims in the EU is 2%, hardly enough to fight a civil war with others, even if they wanted to, which the vast majority don't. Of course it varies between countries, with Eastern Europe having very few Muslims, and France having the highest proportion due to the Maghreb colonial history. Even in France, however, it's under 10 per cent. Not to mention that there are many divisions between different groups of Muslims, and of course between different groups of non-Muslims!

Nasty skirmishes between small groups of far-RW violent Islamists and far-RW violent nationalists - yes, quite possible; but there have always been nasty skirmishes between nasty people, and it does not constitute civil war.

[TubbersUK]

34. Thank goodness, a voice of reason among the hyperbole n/t

[Lee-Lee]

19. I expect France to begin a purge of Muslims soon like they did of the Roma in 2009-10

Most people here barely heard of it, but in 2009 France started purging all the Roma from there and sending them out of the country- including many born there. The French got tired of the crime and after a few high profile riots and events they started the purge- that continues to this day. Estimates are 80% of the Roma there have been evicted from the country.

The events that set it off were much smaller in impact and scale than the recent Islamic terrorist attacks there. However there is a long hatred of the Roma there based on the amount of crime and their reputation as con artists and thieves so the majority of French citizens turned a blind eye.

[romanic]

20. I see that happening too.

Tolerance can only go so far. Hate to say it but it looks like most Muslims in France and other European countries did little to decry violence and sexual assaults from refugees of Muslim origins. Having the press censor and ignore these attacks only fueled the bias against them.

[LeftishBrit]

33. Nobody 'censored and ignored' these attacks; they were widely reported

What are not so widely reported are Muslim condemnations of violence,

whether terrorism:


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/muslim-anti-isis-march-not-covered-by-mainstream-media-outlets-say-organisers-a6765976.html

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/british-muslim-leaders-wage-war-isis-propaganda-uk-mosques-homes-1554234

or more localized violent acts involving Muslim perpetrators:

http://www.mcb.org.uk/child-abuse-in-rotherham-we-cannot-let-this-happen-again/

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-23087686

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/german-muslims-condemn-cologne-new-year-mass-attacks_us_568ed20ce4b0a2b6fb6f5a7c


It seems to me that if anything is being to some extent 'censored' it is Muslim condemnation of violence perpetrated by some specific Muslim individuals and groups!

[AngryAmish]

22. 1492

It look 700 years but Islam lost the long war for the Iberian peninsula. Then they kicked out the Jews because they were perceived as collaboration. And then unleashed the Inquisition.

It will be ugly

[Albertoo]

27. Difference is: Andalusia was merely occupied by foreign Muslim troops

We're now talking about a native born group which has been targeted by religious fundamentalist propaganda (taking advantage of discontent over joblessness and a lack of sense of identity)

[Albertoo]

25. Unlikely

The action taken toward the Roma was mostly cosmetic, with little real effect.

[mwrguy]

32. Muslims will not roll over for them like the roma did

[Albertoo]

45. That's doubly sidestepping the point

1- as I wrote earlier, the Roma did not "roll over", the measures were cosmetic.

2- who is asking the Muslims to "roll over"? That's something you're conjuring up out of nowhere. However, if by not "rolling over", you mean not adhering to the democratic values of the French Republic, I suppose you're saying a major problem is brewing.

[MowCowWhoHow III]

21. More like a low level insurgency

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141573719

[Albertoo]

26. Unless it parallels Lebanon where problems grew with the arrival of Palestinian refugees

[TubbersUK]

35. No n/t

[Sen. Walter Sobchak]

41. NATO would intervene in a severe terrorist insurgency in Europe

I think ongoing terrorist attacks are inevitable but I think a "civil war" is a little far fetched.

[Albertoo]

44. The far fetched is often what we wish not to contemplate

Imagine if people had told the good people of Lebanon in the 60's their country would drown in decades of hot or protracted civil war after an influx of Palestinian refugees..

They would have laughed: Lebanon was a prosperous country used to religious coexistence.

[closeupready]

46. No. Another day, another round of paranoia.

It's unhealthy, IMO, to chase the fearful down their rabbit-holes, as the expression goes.

[Albertoo]

47. Only the Paranoid Survive (from the guy who made Intel a success)

[closeupready]

48. He sold his soul for a fortune. We know how that story ends.

No thanks.