I don't ge it

[Proud liberal 80]

I don't get how a state that went for Obama in 2008 & 2012 (Ohio, Nevada, and Iowa) can flip to trump this year. I mean, I know that states flip but Trump is to the extreme and significantly different than Obama, For a state to flip, that means that:

a. A significant amount of Obama voters are voting for Trump, and I don't see that.
b. The pollsters likely voter models are saying that a significant amount off Obama voters will not vote thus election. I would assume if you were a voter in '08 and '12, then that means that you are a likely voter
c. The pollsters are using likely voters who didn't vote in '08 and '12. And why would someone who didn't vote be considered a likely voter over domain who actually did vote?

[WillowTree]

1. Obama was the "outsider" in '08. Now Trump's Mr. Outside.

When people are looking for a change, they usually don't vote with someone closely identified with the current administration. And there are a lot of folks who want change again. Mrs. Clinton was Obama's Sec State. That doesn't look like change to those people.

[MyNameIsKhan]

4. I am not sure about outsider part

Obama coalition had non traditional bloc, remember the lines in Georgia during 2008. That bloc is not turning out for Clinton or just does not care

[MyNameIsKhan]

2. They are saying about young African American vote

Lot of them were excited about Obama and voted. They are not conventional voting bloc. Obama needs to go and pitch Hilary in Cleveland, philly, Pittsburg, Tampa, Orlando, Miami, Reno, Las Vegas etc otherwise we are toast ...

[treestar]

3. Don't pay so much attention to these polls right now

It is true. Anyone who voted for Obama will certainly at least vote against Donald, and would be OK with Hillary since Obama supports her and she at least won't repeal the ACA and most of what she would do would be similar.

[tonyt53]

5. Bingo!

[MyNameIsKhan]

6. Likely voter screens are correct, especially Bloomberg poll

There is huge enthusiasm gap in AA voters of young age, they need pursuation of Obama.

[treestar]

7. He is campaigning for Hillary

Proof of enthusiasm problem of youthful AA voters?

[MyNameIsKhan]

9. Cross tabs of cnn poll and other information

lost AA votes, few Bernie supporters holding out, DNC leak made it worse to make them feel they fought for already lost cause.
I doubt there is swing of Obama voters to Rump... This is why deplorable comment did not take any traction... At this time all voters have come home except there is deficit of voters on Hillary side and some repub voters moved to Johnson.

[Proud liberal 80]

8. I get it, but I don't like "likely" voter models

I see that Clinton is ahead in a lot of polls when it comes to registered voters. What gives a pollster a right to say someone who voted in the last two presidential elections is not a likely voter. These polls give a perception on who is winning and causes a supression of the vote where these voters don't vote because they think their side is going yo lose anyway.m

[MyNameIsKhan]

10. If you study cnn and selzer poll they ask same question

In different ways and calculate mean deviation from likelihood to vote, it's same as other feed back surveys. The 18-35 voting bloc is show deficit on Hilary side and they are reporting this in the poll. If Hilary can reduce the deficit to half she will atleast be competitive otherwise many of these states are lost cause.

Iowa on other hand is different beast, where Rump is strong due to many reasons, party unified, high white population, Hilary again weak in Des Moines.

I am sure campaign is keeping close watch on the fundamentals of the race by making live calls, they know probably 95% percent of voting bloc in Ohio and Florida.

[progressoid]

11. Also, in 08 Obama had the advantage of following Bush.

[mwrguy]

12. exactly, it's easier to follow the worst president than the best

[MyNameIsKhan]

13. Lets not simplify Obama Coalition, he won in landslide for 2008 terms...

He won Indiana for god sake.

Hillary is out to repeat that and she is having issues. The coalition is not coming together, it is fractured... If she looses, Bernie is to be blamed and Dems in general for not erecting a stronger candidate. Hilary has been damaged phenomenally by Repubs without any fault of her own, This email scandal my god...

[Rustyeye77]

14. YOU dont get it ?!?!

beats the shit out of me.

[rock]

15. Could the pollsters be wrong

Yep.