In 2012, Obama out-performed the national polling average by 3.2 points.

[Drunken Irishman]

That's a significant shift in a close election. The average of all final polls had Obama leading Romney nationally by just .7% - he'd go on to win by 3.9% (or rounding up, 4 points).

My point? Hillary currently leads Trump in the average of polls by 1.6 points. That's a larger lead than Obama's final polling numbers in 2012. IF Hillary maintains that lead up through election day, it's not absurd to suggest she may get a similar bump in final results (voter turnout models were off in 2012). If she did, that'd put her total at 4.8 points, or rounded, a five-point win in the popular vote.

To me, that sounds about right. Such a lead in the popular vote probably nets her 300+ electoral votes.

Anything larger, and obviously you're going to get a larger EV margin.

Either way, this still remains Hillary's election to lose.

Good luck tonight, Senator Clinton.

[vadermike]

1. Ok

So that means we have to not shit the bed in this debate at least I think President O had a stronger coalition in 12 We have 3rd parties bleeding votes and we are already losing OH IA and others We absolutely have to outperform the polling I am praying tonite

[vdogg]

2. Obama was down by 6 AFTER the first debate.

6! I really don't get all these people freaking panicking right now.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. They freaked out then too...

To be fair, so did I.

I think people are freaking because Romney was a generic Republican...it wasn't completely baffling that he was winning. I don't think people quite understand how Trump could be in this thing, let alone winning in a handful of polls.

[Charles Bukowski]

4. Obama's superior ground game undoubtedly played a role in those results.

That's good news for Clinton as her ground game is miles superior to the circus clown's.

[babylonsister]

5. It sure is. She's doing everything right, so we shall see. nt