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Did Trump warn someone of this Tweet, giving them insider information AKA Insider Trading? (Original Post) stevenleser Dec 2016 OP
I would say the probability of that kind of a drop occurring within minutes of his Tweet would be Quixote1818 Dec 2016 #1
ooo shit Jean-Jacques Roussea Dec 2016 #2
Or Congress. n/t Mr.Bill Dec 2016 #14
I believe congress is exempt from the Insider Trading laws, they can sit on a committee and invest. TheBlackAdder Dec 2016 #35
That's what I meant. Mr.Bill Dec 2016 #40
That was in the pre-Twittler era Bettie Dec 2016 #34
Or tax evasion TrekLuver Dec 2016 #47
Oh Shit! hrmjustin Dec 2016 #3
This could get some one in a lot of trouble KittyWampus Dec 2016 #4
Let's hope that someone is Trump. Love to see him do a Hannity interview Maru Kitteh Dec 2016 #9
MAGA my ass. SAB (Steal America Blind) is more like it. n/t rzemanfl Dec 2016 #5
Has the look of a perfect 'short' position, doesn't it? yallerdawg Dec 2016 #6
In the days I worked in the securities industry they would have called this out immediately kimbutgar Dec 2016 #7
Jared? Uday or Qusay? tanyev Dec 2016 #8
LOL. Ilsa Dec 2016 #20
but, of course. mountain grammy Dec 2016 #30
I heard there are people waiting for his tweets so they can immediately dump their stocks Quixote1818 Dec 2016 #10
Not insider trading at all marylandblue Dec 2016 #11
We'll see. That answer is very generous. I am sure this is going to be investigated. nt stevenleser Dec 2016 #13
Thinking about it some more, your explanation doesnt work. stevenleser Dec 2016 #16
It certainly explains what he's doing awake at 4:00am every morning. TrollBuster9090 Dec 2016 #25
It wasn't public knowledge that he would make that tweet 6 minutes BEFORE he tweeted. pnwmom Dec 2016 #18
If this is anything like what it looks like, whoever bought that stock already has called the SEC stevenleser Dec 2016 #12
Many insider trading allegations bucolic_frolic Dec 2016 #15
I am sure Trump's monetized this aspect of his position. Dustlawyer Dec 2016 #17
Was Boeing a trial balloon? ToxMarz Dec 2016 #19
Trump likes him some lawsuits. Rex Dec 2016 #21
Oh . . . My . . . God. I agree with Donald Trump on something. The F-35 does cost too much. tclambert Dec 2016 #22
Wow! What a coincidence! kentuck Dec 2016 #23
Time difference could be due to page refresh times. BadgerKid Dec 2016 #24
Reminds me of when everyone flipped the fuck out when DARPA tried using a market to predict AtheistCrusader Dec 2016 #45
trumps surrounded by many republicans all grabbing for 'jobs', any one of them could do this crime. Sunlei Dec 2016 #26
This will also unhinge Congress. Stonepounder Dec 2016 #27
Looks like what eventually seems to happen to independents is happening to him already. stevenleser Dec 2016 #29
Does this mean Trump has a license to do what Martha Stewart went to prison for? world wide wally Dec 2016 #28
That isn't how insider trading works. SomethingNew Dec 2016 #31
The folks I've since discussed this with who work on Wall Street disagree stevenleser Dec 2016 #32
Here is the rule. Anytime you have access to non-public "market moving information" stevenleser Dec 2016 #33
It is a lot more than that. SomethingNew Dec 2016 #39
They do know what they are talking about and you are wrong. Here is caselaw stevenleser Dec 2016 #48
Did you even read that case? SomethingNew Dec 2016 #49
Yes I did read the case, do you even understand it because it seems you don't. stevenleser Dec 2016 #50
I can't help you if you won't read. SomethingNew Dec 2016 #51
This message was self-deleted by its author stevenleser Dec 2016 #52
More evidence Corrupt Trump is a freakin' idiot. yallerdawg Dec 2016 #36
If only the duped ones could read about these matters. BSdetect Dec 2016 #37
Comrade Trumps stock.. sarah FAILIN Dec 2016 #38
The bigger problem Parker DeWitt Dec 2016 #41
"Giving Trump this kind of power is like giving a hyperactive 8-year-old a loaded gun." concreteblue Dec 2016 #42
The question that must be asked is... tecelote Dec 2016 #43
Today Trump trashed Amazon in a tweet. Wonder if this phenomena repeats? Midnight Writer Dec 2016 #44
Look at the volume, the bottom bar graph denbot Dec 2016 #46

Quixote1818

(28,903 posts)
1. I would say the probability of that kind of a drop occurring within minutes of his Tweet would be
Mon Dec 12, 2016, 09:45 PM
Dec 2016

zero unless someone knew.

yallerdawg

(16,104 posts)
6. Has the look of a perfect 'short' position, doesn't it?
Mon Dec 12, 2016, 09:55 PM
Dec 2016

Kellyanne Conway said his tweets could move the market.

CONWAY: So, President-elect Trump sees that he has this massive online platform. He says about 35 million on Twitter and Facebook combined. And he sees an opportunity to communicate right to people by cutting through the noise or the silence, whatever the case may be, through social media platforms. But see that through tweets now he can affect industry, he affected the stock market yesterday, frankly, and he did it twice. He did it in two different ways: first, by telling Boeing to cancel the project or maybe put it on hold. He thinks it's too expensive, it goes against his entire platform of cutting waste and abuse in the system. And then their stocks went down 1.5 percent yesterday. And then secondly, he went down to the lobby in Trump Tower where the media are, and he announced a $50 billion -- that's with a "b" -- investment by SoftBank.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/07/kellyanne-conway-theres-no-excuse-for-trump-not-to-get-things-done.html

kimbutgar

(20,874 posts)
7. In the days I worked in the securities industry they would have called this out immediately
Mon Dec 12, 2016, 09:56 PM
Dec 2016

As suspious trading.

Ilsa

(61,675 posts)
20. LOL.
Mon Dec 12, 2016, 10:52 PM
Dec 2016

I laugh everytime I see those names. It's brilliant.

And it wouldn't surprise me if it was them.

Quixote1818

(28,903 posts)
10. I heard there are people waiting for his tweets so they can immediately dump their stocks
Mon Dec 12, 2016, 10:04 PM
Dec 2016

so by this occurring minutes before instead of just after tells me they wanted to beat anyone waiting for his tweet. But why not do it hours before?

marylandblue

(12,344 posts)
11. Not insider trading at all
Mon Dec 12, 2016, 10:04 PM
Dec 2016

It's public knowledge. Wall Street is watching the news and looking for things that will cause Trump to tweet.


http://www.democraticunderground.com/10028358977

You can do the same and make a mint!

Edited to add investment advice

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
16. Thinking about it some more, your explanation doesnt work.
Mon Dec 12, 2016, 10:31 PM
Dec 2016

The market doesnt open until 9:30am. However, early trading options are available through brokerages as early as 4am. Whoever dumped that stock took advantage of that.

But hold on. If you are trying to game the system like you suggest someone was doing, and you heard the day before that there were issues with Lockheed Martin's jet and you thought Trump might Tweet about it the next day, you would act as early as possible. Probably 4am, the earliest that early market trading opens.

But wait, it gets better. After market training goes until 8pm. Depending on the timing of the CNN report, they could have dumped stock late.

Dumping it in the six minute period before he Tweets isnt guessing he might talk about something that day, it's specific knowledge of what and when.

TrollBuster9090

(5,953 posts)
25. It certainly explains what he's doing awake at 4:00am every morning.
Mon Dec 12, 2016, 11:40 PM
Dec 2016

Schedule:

1. Set alarm for 3:45 am

2. 3:50 am -Sit on gold toilet with iPhone

3. 4:00 am -Call broker to dump LMT.SW stock

4. 4:15 am - Tweet out that I'm cancelling the F-35 project

5. 4:30 am - Call broker to enter 'buy on stop' order for when the stock drops 20%, and bottoms out at $250

6. 5:00 am - (Goof around. Watch Fox & Friends. Send out insulting tweets about Rosie O'Donnell.)

7. 8:00 am - buy back all holdings in LMT.SW

8. 9:00am - Send out tweet that I've changed my mind about the F-35 project, and am planning to DOUBLE the order.

9. 10:00 am -Set alarm for 3:45am to repeat process all over again.

pnwmom

(108,925 posts)
18. It wasn't public knowledge that he would make that tweet 6 minutes BEFORE he tweeted.
Mon Dec 12, 2016, 10:39 PM
Dec 2016

It seems odd that someone would drop large amounts of Lockheed minutes before DT's tweet.

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
12. If this is anything like what it looks like, whoever bought that stock already has called the SEC
Mon Dec 12, 2016, 10:05 PM
Dec 2016

and already has their lawyers working on a lawsuit against whomever sold it to them.

bucolic_frolic

(42,663 posts)
15. Many insider trading allegations
Mon Dec 12, 2016, 10:14 PM
Dec 2016

trace to foreign PO Boxes in places where the investigation dead-ends.

Just saying

Dustlawyer

(10,493 posts)
17. I am sure Trump's monetized this aspect of his position.
Mon Dec 12, 2016, 10:33 PM
Dec 2016

He cannot resist, but I am sure he has it worked out on how he is to be paid. He is going to be known as the Plutocrat's President, that is if he doesn't get impeached first.

tclambert

(11,080 posts)
22. Oh . . . My . . . God. I agree with Donald Trump on something. The F-35 does cost too much.
Mon Dec 12, 2016, 11:07 PM
Dec 2016

Excuse me, I think I have to go rinse my brain.

BadgerKid

(4,541 posts)
24. Time difference could be due to page refresh times.
Mon Dec 12, 2016, 11:40 PM
Dec 2016

But I agree there are definitely "interesting" trading phenomena that happen. For example, the stock trades flat all day, and then after hours, it rises/falls significantly on no news. The next day, the news comes out. The meme "somebody knows something" really does seem to apply.

AtheistCrusader

(33,982 posts)
45. Reminds me of when everyone flipped the fuck out when DARPA tried using a market to predict
Tue Dec 13, 2016, 07:56 PM
Dec 2016

terror attacks.

Stonepounder

(4,033 posts)
27. This will also unhinge Congress.
Mon Dec 12, 2016, 11:47 PM
Dec 2016

Congress critters in districts that have big military contracts live or die by those contracts. And to have Trump, who isn't even President yet, saying HE is going to cancel contracts (psst, Donnie, Congress makes the budget not you), and seeing big movements in company's stock, will give them ulcers.

Donnie when you get the Repugs in Congress pissed off at you, then you have a problem.

And what does the Idiot-in-Chief think are going to happen to all the jobs that those Billions pay for?

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
29. Looks like what eventually seems to happen to independents is happening to him already.
Tue Dec 13, 2016, 12:03 AM
Dec 2016

And yes, I know he ran as a Repug but he's not really one of them. He's not a Democrat either, he is just a loose canon.

What happens to all independents is that they completely lose their legislature. Jesse Ventura ended up completely undermined by the Minnesota state legislature. The two parties eventually would get together and pass bills with veto proof majorities and essentially ignore him.

world wide wally

(21,719 posts)
28. Does this mean Trump has a license to do what Martha Stewart went to prison for?
Tue Dec 13, 2016, 12:00 AM
Dec 2016

See? He's already changed things to MAGA

SomethingNew

(279 posts)
31. That isn't how insider trading works.
Tue Dec 13, 2016, 12:25 AM
Dec 2016

Even if Trump told someone he was going to make the tweet, it would not be insider trading and the SEC wouldn't even think twice about it.

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
32. The folks I've since discussed this with who work on Wall Street disagree
Tue Dec 13, 2016, 05:10 AM
Dec 2016

Including at least one person who works in a compliance capacity.

What is your background in the financial industry?

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
33. Here is the rule. Anytime you have access to non-public "market moving information"
Tue Dec 13, 2016, 05:30 AM
Dec 2016

On a company and you trade based on that information, you have broken the various insider trading laws. "Market moving information" is the term used by the SEC and it is broadly applied.

SomethingNew

(279 posts)
39. It is a lot more than that.
Tue Dec 13, 2016, 02:59 PM
Dec 2016

It requires the existence of a fiduciary duty (except in limited cases of hacking and things like that). Regardless of whether or not knowing that Trump was going to tweet about a company counts as material non-public information (it doesn't), Trump does not meet the requirement of owing a fiduciary duty under any conception of the term. He therefore cannot be charged with an SEC violation for telling someone he was going to tweet about Lockheed. The "Wall Street" person you asked doesn't know what they are talking about.

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
48. They do know what they are talking about and you are wrong. Here is caselaw
Tue Dec 13, 2016, 09:53 PM
Dec 2016

A person in the position of President elect who obviously is about to have the power to affect the position of various companies, particularly in the defense sector, absolutely has fiduciary duties and various other responsibilities to the shareholders or would be shareholders of those companies.

I suggest you read David CARPENTER, Kenneth P. Felis, and R. Foster Winans, Petitioners v. UNITED STATES.

https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/484/19#:

Petitioner Winans was coauthor of a Wall Street Journal investment advice column which, because of its perceived quality and integrity, had an impact on the market prices of the stocks it discussed. Although he was familiar with the Journal's rule that the column's contents were the Journal's confidential information prior to publication, Winans entered into a scheme with petitioner Felis and another stockbroker who, in exchange for advance information from Winans as to the timing and contents of the column, bought and sold stocks based on the column's probable impact on the market and shared their profits with Winans. On the basis of this scheme, Winans and Felis were convicted of violations of the federal securities laws and of the federal mail and wire fraud statutes, 18 U.S.C. 1341, 1343, which prohibit the use of the mails or of electronic transmissions to execute "any scheme or artifice to defraud, or for obtaining money or property by means of false or fraudulent pretenses, representations, or promises"; petitioner Carpenter was convicted of aiding and abetting. The Court of Appeals affirmed.

SomethingNew

(279 posts)
49. Did you even read that case?
Tue Dec 13, 2016, 11:07 PM
Dec 2016

Go back and look at the holding of that case. It confirms what I said above. He was liable there for fraud in connection to selling securities due to his duties owed to the WSJ.

Trump does not owe a fiduciary duty to the shareholders of public corporations. That would be the most impossibly stupid rule that the SEC could ever create. You want the president to have to make sure all of his decisions are made for the financial gain of stockholders?

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
50. Yes I did read the case, do you even understand it because it seems you don't.
Tue Dec 13, 2016, 11:22 PM
Dec 2016

He was NOT liable because of duties owed to the WSJ. The courts didn't care about that. They made mention of it in the brief because it made his transgression worse because he knew he was not only breaking the law but breaking the clearly laid out policy of his employer which he had to sign in advance.

They cared that he knew he could affect stock price by his public writings and entered into a scheme with others so that they could take positions in advance of his writings.

In other words, exactly what it seems Trump has done here.

SomethingNew

(279 posts)
51. I can't help you if you won't read.
Wed Dec 14, 2016, 03:32 AM
Dec 2016

Go back and look at the case. It doesn't say what you think it does. Furthermore, go look at the 2nd Cir. Case that it affirmed (791 F.2d 1024). I don't have Westlaw on my phone so I can't get you the exact page number but take a look at paragraph 18. The court explicitly rejected your argument and said the guilt here stems from breaching the duty he owed to the WSJ (and even under that more strict standard, they couldn't get a SCOTUS majority).

I understand that you want it to be true. We all would like Trump to go down on SEC charges. That said, you can't just twist the law into saying the opposite of what it actually says. Arguments need to be grounded in reality (and correct legal doctrines).

Do you have any background in securities law?

Response to SomethingNew (Reply #51)

sarah FAILIN

(2,857 posts)
38. Comrade Trumps stock..
Tue Dec 13, 2016, 11:47 AM
Dec 2016

He thought he didn't need it anymore... but he may buy it back now that it's a bargain.

 

Parker DeWitt

(28 posts)
41. The bigger problem
Tue Dec 13, 2016, 05:00 PM
Dec 2016

Is that Trump knows he can manipulate the markets -- across the world -- with just a few words. This probably was insider trading -- that's how the stock market works -- but the problem is more far reaching.

Back in the early days of Bush II, he screwed up the international markets, but it was just his stupidity. He had a meeting with the Japanese prime minister and afterwards he said that they had spent a lot of time talking about "devaluation." He meant to say "deflation," but the currency markets went nuts thinking that Japan was going to devalue the Yen.

People all over the world hang on every syllable that comes out of the mouth of POTUS. Giving Trump this kind of power is like giving a hyperactive 8-year-old a loaded gun.

concreteblue

(626 posts)
42. "Giving Trump this kind of power is like giving a hyperactive 8-year-old a loaded gun."
Tue Dec 13, 2016, 05:46 PM
Dec 2016

Frighteningly vivid analogy......

tecelote

(5,122 posts)
43. The question that must be asked is...
Tue Dec 13, 2016, 06:56 PM
Dec 2016

How common is dumping Lockheed stock? Does it happen on a regular basis? Daily? If so, maybe this is coincidence.

Then, how much was dumped? Was it significant enough to be a windfall? If not, then it just might be a coincidence.

I hope I am wrong on all counts because I believe Trump is only about Trump and he needs to be taken down. But, we need to pick fights that are rock solid.

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