PUTIN'S REAL LONG GAME

[pangaia]

I came across this posted on the FB wall of a Russian friend of mine - an article in POLITICO.

I certainly lays out pretty well what Putin is up to. About the only thing the writer seems to miss is an understanding of just what trump actually is. She is too hopeful..
There are so many important "paragraphs," there is no way I could choose just four. But I did.

.....................

"First, it is a war. A thing to be won, decisively — not a thing to be negotiated or bargained. It’s all one war: Ukraine, Turkey, Syria, the Baltics, Georgia. It’s what Vladislav Surkov, Putin’s ‘grey cardinal’ and lead propagandist, dubbed ”non-linear war......”

SNIP

"Second...............
Political warfare is meant to achieve specific political outcomes favorable to the Kremlin: it is preferred to physical conflict because it is cheap and easy..........................................rarely has the goal been to install overtly pro-Russian governments. Far more often, the goal is simply to replace Western-style democratic regimes with illiberal, populist, or nationalist ones."

SNIP

"Third, information warfare is not about creating an alternate truth, but eroding our basic ability to distinguish truth at all. It is not “propaganda” as we’ve come to think of it, but the less obvious techniques known in Russia as “active measures” and “reflexive control”. Both are designed to make us, the targets, act against our own best interests."

SNIP

Fourth, ........... (the Kremlin's goal is)undermining the strength of Western institutions by coalescing alternate — ideally temporary and limited — centers of power. Rather than a stable world order undergirded by the U.S. and its allies, the goal is an unstable new world order of “all against all.”

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/01/putins-real-long-game-214589

[dhol82]

1. Trump can't expose the Russian interference - he is owned by Putin in so many ways.

[pangaia]

2. Exactly.. I am surprised the writer doesn't see that..

The rest of the analysis seems quite perceptive.

[dhol82]

5. Agree

[KittyWampus]

3. For the slow learners, Putin's cronies have out-right stated their objectives.

Anyone who thinks Putin is not a threat isn't paying attention.

[pangaia]

4. Boy, tell me about it....

He is after ALL, Eastern Europe, NATO, US... the game is to distabalize everythning.

[KittyWampus]

7. Yeah, I have always disliked how the word "oligarchs" gets thrown around...

But this seems to be the very wealthiest on the planet trying to dispense with participatory Democracy and just leave a pretense.

We collectively are in for a world of hurt in the near future.

It's really so stupid. We have to beat these greed-heads down every so often with much loss of life.

Putin won't live forever. And neither will the Koch Bros.

[Wounded Bear]

6. By far, the most damage done on 9/11...

was done by our own hand, to ourselves in response to it. We're still suffering from that. We gave up far too much of our soul fighting that.

Putin and Russia is just continuing on that theme. Like the 3rd excerpt above says, they get us to "act against our own best interests." In times of severe stress, people tend to seek out strong men, strong "leaders" that have authoritarian tendencies. Putin is banking on that, and we-meaning all of the Trump voters-fell for it.

[mopinko]

8. the interwebs were getting too truthy.

they had to muddy them up. i dont just mean the subject here- russia.
just the oligarchs, and the misanthropes.

[pangaia]

12. The interwebs will also be a target..

[mopinko]

16. they have been forever.

at least in terms of disruption and undermining reality.
some people, when i tell them about something i read on du just shake their heads. i dont blame them. but i try to set them straight that this is a place where a lie never stands long.

which is why we were ground zero.

[Rage4Bacon]

21. I think it was a natural consequence of the internet...

Previously the masses retrieved their news from a small amount of sources. Now the doors are wide open for anyone to publish. There hasn't been an evolution of information since the invention of the printing press. Sure, some might be trying to take advantage of it, but NO ONE will be able to monopolize it going forward. People will just have to adapt to the discordant cacophony of opinions now.

[muriel_volestrangler]

9. "too hopeful" is massive understatement

She has on the full rose-tinted spectacles for Trump - "a straight talker" (he contradicts himself constantly, and lies more than any candidate in American history), " a man of many narratives" (yeah, that's him contradicting himself, but desperately spun), "whether he’ll clearly see the end of the old order, grasp the nature of the war we are in, and have the vision and the confrontational spirit to win it" - not a chance. The only thing Trump sees clearly is a chance to make a buck, and he has never had 'vision' at all. Unless you count sticking his name on large buildings. His 'confrontational spirit' is limited to trying to excuse himself, with simplistic "I know what you are, but what am I?" phrases, or paying lawyers to bog things down in court. Neither tactic would have the slightest effect on Putin, but he only uses them when personally confronted. The First Rule of Trump: he never does anything for anyone else.

The rest of it is well worth reading, though. I suppose there's a chance she wrote what she did about Trump in the hope that being so complimentary about him will get a flunky to read it all, and then give Trump a summary (no chance he'll read something with tens of paragraphs himself).

[pangaia]

13. right about trump

She is obviously very good at analyzing what is going on. So I can not imagine HOW she could miss on trump.. You must be right about trying to'sneak one in." But I have zero hope it will help. trump is owned lock, stock and barrel by putin..

[Generator]

10. He's already won number 2 and 3

The war to get land back though-that's where the rubber meets the road. Will the GOP object to Russia taking more land? Will it defend NATO? Because our prez elect DonnyPutin is gonna give daddy Putin everything he wants. What will the rest of our "leaders" do? This is going to be interesting. (also concerning Merkel is up for re election in Sept I believe and France is in May.)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/angela-merkel-is-liberalisms-last-great-hope-for-nowanyway/article33453375/

It does feel like this is 1939 to me.

[pangaia]

14. I don't follow German politics much, but think Merkel knows exactly what is going on.

I should ask some friends in Mannheim, Munich and Berlin.

[ElkeH]

23. She understands the danger that Putin and Russia pose

Merkel grew up in East Germany and has no love for Putin and Russia. She saw the KGB/Stasi tactics every day.

No doubt the election of Trump and his fondness for Putin and Russia also alarm her a great deal.

[pangaia]

24. Didn't know that. Thanks.

[CentralMass]

27. Yet she is dealing wuth Pution for emergy.

http://www.newsweek.com/why-merkel-backing-pipeline-appeases-putin-420252

[flamingdem]

11. Let's see his tax returns - someone sue for them

because he's in deep debt to Putin and what he's up to is impeachable

[Ilsa]

15. K&R. NT

[Fast Walker 52]

17. many on the left make the huge mistake of thinking Russia is harmless and we're just the aggressor

[pangaia]

20. Well, "WE" certainly are not blameless.

As I am sure you know.

[Fast Walker 52]

26. No doubt... but doesn't mean we let them take advantage of us

[Fast Walker 52]

18. quite an important piece, thanks

[pangaia]

19. There is another good one. I'll try to find it.

[pangaia]

22. I found the other article and made an OP...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10028424502

and another

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10028424433


Have some bourbon. You'll need it.

[Fast Walker 52]

25. the Observer piece is quite noteworthy

"today, the Kremlin employs thousands of professionals in well-targeted Western disinformation campaigns, and pours billions of dollars into these centrally-orchestrated efforts. In comparison, within Western institutions, only dozens of experts study and counter disinformation outside of our intelligence agencies. There are several dedicated government teams scattered from Tallinn to London, a few dozen think-tanks digging into the issue, and a only a handful of brave political leaders willing to address this grave threat clearly and often.

There are three reasons why, in the West, there is a clear lack of political will among governing politicians to begin tailing policy responses."