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Foreign policy expert Ilan Goldenberg summarizes what to expect of Trump's national security team
On Twitter this morning, 15-part thread starting with this tweet:
https://twitter.com/ilangoldenberg/status/820628041688825861
1. Last week strong indicator of how Trump Natsec Team may function: Crazy NSC, feckless State, independent DOD, Leaky Intel Community
2. Clear from confirmation that views of nominees all over the map and not consistent with Trump
3. Trump won’t bother with detail of breaking ties leading to dysfunction and lack of coherence
4. Far behind on hiring Deputies and Undersecretaries, where most action happens on NatSec foreign policy, also indicates no coordination
5. And NSC appointees indicating there won’t be a traditional Deputies process to come to decisions and tee up things for POTUS
6. Instead NSC will just pursue own whacky rogue operations like Flynn-Kislyak 5 calls to coordinate Putin’s response to Obama sanctions
7. For State this means no power. Diplomats have no real assets or authorities outside of their word.
8. If everyone knows Tillerson isn’t speaking for POTUS, State is powerless
9. DOD different. Mattis has plenty of authority to spend big money and move military assets without POTUS approval.
10. So we may be putting more assets into Europe and strengthening NATO alliance even as Flynn/Bannon/Trump cuddling up to Putin
11. Trump is the only one with the authority to steer Mattis in a different direction and avoid this incoherence. Doubt he will do it.
12. At the same time, CIA will leak like a seive to undercut wacky NSC. The dossier may or may not have been the IC. Many had access.
13. But leaks on the 5 Flynn-Kislyak calls were almost certainly IC. And meant to undercut wacky NSC policy move
14. And telling our British and Israeli intel partners to protect their intel from Trump is another indicator.
15. Bottom line: this is going to be an incoherent mess.
2. Clear from confirmation that views of nominees all over the map and not consistent with Trump
3. Trump won’t bother with detail of breaking ties leading to dysfunction and lack of coherence
4. Far behind on hiring Deputies and Undersecretaries, where most action happens on NatSec foreign policy, also indicates no coordination
5. And NSC appointees indicating there won’t be a traditional Deputies process to come to decisions and tee up things for POTUS
6. Instead NSC will just pursue own whacky rogue operations like Flynn-Kislyak 5 calls to coordinate Putin’s response to Obama sanctions
7. For State this means no power. Diplomats have no real assets or authorities outside of their word.
8. If everyone knows Tillerson isn’t speaking for POTUS, State is powerless
9. DOD different. Mattis has plenty of authority to spend big money and move military assets without POTUS approval.
10. So we may be putting more assets into Europe and strengthening NATO alliance even as Flynn/Bannon/Trump cuddling up to Putin
11. Trump is the only one with the authority to steer Mattis in a different direction and avoid this incoherence. Doubt he will do it.
12. At the same time, CIA will leak like a seive to undercut wacky NSC. The dossier may or may not have been the IC. Many had access.
13. But leaks on the 5 Flynn-Kislyak calls were almost certainly IC. And meant to undercut wacky NSC policy move
14. And telling our British and Israeli intel partners to protect their intel from Trump is another indicator.
15. Bottom line: this is going to be an incoherent mess.
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