General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe Moscow Rules
Like many of us, I've spent a lot of time recently thinking about "The Dossier", and reading about the reactions it has stirred up on all sides around the world.
I started off believing that we were seeing the outlines of a classic "honey trap" blackmail setup. I no longer think that. I think the game that is afoot is far larger and more consequential than a simple political blackmail attempt - even on a President of the USA..
IMO Putin is playing a very long game whose aim is fundamentally to destabilize democracies around the world. In this game he has found the perfect chess piece in Donald Trump. I don't think Putin's game is about blackmailing Trump just to gain a few years of a willing puppet in America - after all, Trump appears quite willing to fulfill that role without being blackmailed.
Instead, I think the game has a much longer-term objective of destabilizing democracies by fostering fear, uncertainty, doubt, mistrust, suspicion and ideologically hardened antagonism - at every possible level and in every possible situation.
This program is working extremely well inside the USA - all necessary proof can be had by taking an objective look at the behavior of Congress, the relationship between Trump and the intelligence community, and the increasingly bitter personal face-off in general society between the Trumpites and everyone else.
The international picture shows dramatic evidence of this destabilization program as well - Israel and the British don't want to share intel with the US any more; Trump is on Merkel's case over refugees (or "illegals" as he calls them); the Syrian situation has all the players not knowing who they can legitimately trust or support; and then there is the impenetrable cloud of ideological FUD that has been stirred up around Ukraine.
IMO the publication of the dossier pretty much took the possibility of blackmail off the table, but it definitely stirred up the antagonism. Putin's game has all of us pointing fingers at each other, while leaving Russia pretty much alone to pursue its interests with less and less organized opposition.
As Ian Fleming wrote so presciently in his novel "Goldfinger," "Once is an accident. Twice is a coincidence. Three times is an enemy action." The poisoning of so many relationships within and between democratic nations is neither accident nor coincidence, IMHO.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Moscow_rules
2naSalit
(86,061 posts)Good point.
moondust
(19,917 posts)What could he hope to achieve long-term from sowing widespread anarchy and division in the West? Grabbing more of Europe and rebuilding the Soviet empire? Becoming czar of some new Axis of Autocracies or Axis of Oligarchies headquartered in Moscow? Something else? Malignant delusions of grandeur craving more influence in the world? Russia is already the largest country on Earth at almost twice the size of its nearest competitor Canada.
Once a spy, always a spy. - Tweet from Russian Embassy in London aimed at Christopher Steele but also inadvertently exposing their boss.
GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)Two aspects of this global game are worth mentioning.
First, while the incomprehensibility of the Syrian alliances and their funding has made governments suspicious of each other, the more important aspect may be the flood of Syrian refugees that has helped enormously to destabilize Europe.
Second, I would expect that Putin's internet troll army played a role in the Brexit "No" vote, and there is no doubt that they have been blowing enormous clouds of confusion around Ukraine.
There are always weak points in the global power structures, but it looks to me like Putin has been opportunistically identifying and exacerbating them. The goal of all this work is the same as it has ever been - providing Russia with national security. This time instead of invading and annexing border states, they are disrupting and distracting any possible international opposition. Ensuring the security of the Rodina has been Russia's singular preoccupation since WWII.
"An unnoticed WWIII" is a good way of describing what's happening. Never forget Putin's background. That leopard has never changed his spots, he just got more stealthy, cunning and sophisticated. People who focus only on the immediate local events in their own country while dismissing possibility that they are part of a larger geopolitical strategy are playing into his hands.
moondust
(19,917 posts)do you think this would be true?
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/01/15/global-inequality-oxfam-report/96545438/
GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)That's not the way to get more of it.
GP6971
(31,017 posts)ProudLib72
(17,984 posts)what intelligence has been saying for a month?
I don't want to belittle your point because it is a good one that needs repeating. I do want to point out the failure of our congress to understand that this is actually Putin's motive.
FarCenter
(19,429 posts)After the collapse of the USSR, the US went for global domination as the sole superpower on a mission to establish liberal democracy and free market economics everywhere.
This reached its high tide prior to the 2008 financial crisis and what we are now seeing is the emergence of a multipolar international order based on several regional powers.
many a good man
(5,997 posts)https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/07/27/geopolitics-russia-mackinder-eurasia-heartland-dugin-ukraine-eurasianism-manifest-destiny-putin/
The strategy used when they were one-among-equals had to change when they fell to being a third rate power, albeit with lots of nukes. Unable to project much power, they are trying to weaken the more powerful to bring them down to their own level of weakness.
Thus the aim is to weaken unified Europe and the transatlantic alliance. Ally with China, Iran, and other third world victims of US neoliberal neocolonialist overreach.
Thus also for the support of antiglobalists and white ethnic nationalists in the UK, US, and Europe to weaken liberal democracy and silently rule the world.
Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland; Who rules the Heartland commands the World Island; Who rules the World Island commands the World.
- Sir Halford Mackinder
GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)Thank you for that eye-opener!