General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsIf Drumpf orders a blockade of the South China Sea and China sends in aircraft, what happens next?
Does Drumpf order it be shot down?
Then what?
get the red out
(13,461 posts)We are not going to have a President with a clue on how to handle international problems. We could face nuclear war for his ego. I can only hope our military would disobey his insanity.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)A conventional war with them would bleed us dry. That was always the fear with the old USSR, that a NATO-Warsaw Pact war would end in a nuclear exchange.
NewJeffCT
(56,828 posts)and his supporters and the media will cheer his toughness... while China ends up getting their way.
PearliePoo2
(7,768 posts)if they were showing disrespect to our "our big, beautiful Navy ships". It seems he's got a "trigger finger".
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)SHRED
(28,136 posts)And besides...how strong is our military when China manufactures so much of our equipment?
They make the products we need.
It would get ugly quick.
PearliePoo2
(7,768 posts)We're in for a hell of a ride for survival of the earth.
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,853 posts)Trump would order several submarines, armed with nuclear missiles, near China.
China would wisely back down from such a conflict.
WalMart customers would struggle to find cheap stuff from China.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)They have to believe the USA isn't going to nuke them over some sand bars. When they intervened in the Korean War we wisely sued for peace.
When has China backed down from anybody in recent history?
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,853 posts)if I'm right about such a scenario, China would be wise to back down because the nuclear subs would vaporize them.
Trump will have the USA and the rest of the world on pins and needles.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Remember what happened during the Bush administration. This is from memory. Chinese plane buzzes American jet in international waters. Chinese plane and pilot is lost. American jet is damaged in the skirmish and lands in China. China doesn't return jet and crew until America apologizes. America apologizes and China returns crew and jet in little pieces.
I don't see China backing down,
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,853 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)The Soviets were not confident they could win such a conflict. A large-scale Chinese incursion could threaten key strategic centers in Blagoveshchensk, Vladivostok, and Khabarovsk, as well as crucial nodes of the Trans-Siberian Railroad.[1] According to Arkady Shevchenko, a high-ranking Russian defector to the United States, The Politburo was terrified that the Chinese might make a large-scale intrusion into Soviet territory.[1] A nightmare vision of invasion by millions of Chinese made the Soviet leaders almost frantic. Despite our overwhelming superiority in weaponry, it would not be easy for the U.S.S.R. to cope with an assault of this magnitude.[1] Given Chinas vast population and deep knowledge and experience in guerrilla warfare, if the Soviets launched a major attack on Chinas nuclear program they would surely become mired in an endless war.[1]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_border_conflict
See post # 2 . China would bleed us dry. Even the Deplorables would realize war with China is a very bad idea.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)They are no match for us in a naval conflict. I tend to think it won't come to that. Both our economies would suffer and they have no hope of winning.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)The whole point of a blue water Navy is to extend your power.
We would be going 7,000 miles to attack them. The Chinese military isn't going to sit by for six months like Saddam's military did in 1991 while the whole world puts together an invasion force on their border.
We could defeat any military, but defeating Russia or China would come at such a cost as to be unfathomable.
It would likely be the end for them and us.
Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)Our economies are so dependant on each other that a military conflict seems unlikely.
If they worst.did.happen it would still most likely be a limited conflict. I just don't see a war between them US and China in the near future. Maybe I am wrong but I kinda doubt it.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)If he "picks on" a nation militarily it won't be China. He even admitted we have some real strong enemies. Since Russia is his friend that leaves China. Even he knows a war with a nation with nearly 1,500,000,000 people would be catastrophic.
The USA would likely prevail, but at what cost?
And though Trump likes to talk a tough game he knows Americans of all political persuasions aren't go to go to a war with an economic and military behemoth like China.
One poster in this thread nailed it. He will make a nasty tweet at China's expense and his followers will believe he was vindicated.
thucythucy
(8,045 posts)There was a best selling book of the time, arguing that European economies were so interdependent that a war between the great powers--France, Britain, Germany, Russia, Austria-Hungary--could never happen. Or if it did happen, it would be short. In fact, pretty much all the military plans of the time counted on a quick war, with a single decisive battle.
Then came Sarajevo, and that "damn fool thing in the Balkans" Bismark warned us about. After which came four years of incredible bloodshed and economic ruin.
There's nothing Putin would love better than a shooting war between the US and China. And we all know how much Trump admires his good pal Vladimir.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Remember when Thomas Friedman said there could never be a war between two nations that had a McDonalds because they were united by an interest in commerce. How did that work out?
Cui bono?
Who would win a war between the #1 military power and the # 3 military power?
The #2 military power.
Lee-Lee
(6,324 posts)Aside from maybe some of those little artificial islands the Chinese are building.
It would be Naval and Air Forces pretty much entirely.
Lee-Lee
(6,324 posts)The real threat is they are developing or have operational anti-ship ballistic middles. Think a flight path into low space like a nuclear ballistic middle but with a conventional warhead and guidance system developed to sink capital ships like aircraft carriers.
In theory the Navy can shoot them down. In practice it's been done against one or two at a time but if they did a simultaneous volley of a dozen or more they only need one to get through.
A hit by one of those on a US carrier would probably produce more US casualties in one instant than all branches of the US Military took for the entire Iraq war.
The whole mess there has the potential to spin out of control fast even with rational hands guiding the path. The Chinese seem hell bent on expansionist dreams and claiming wide swaths of open ocean as territorial waters, something that in the past by any country has always been met with force or the threat of it to stop. Allowing them unimpeded is a bad choice. Pushing back too hard is a bad choice.
It's a mess that bothered me a lot a year ago. Now it's just terrifying what could happen.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)The principle that large nations shouldn't bully small nations is worth upholding. I just don't see the point of rattling China's cage.