Recession Coming?

[queentonic]

My mother-in-law is worth a few bucks and her financial advisor is from Morgan Stanley. According to her agent, we are headed toward a recession, but it won't be as bad as 2008. So that's the word going around among financial advisors. I wonder how the Orange Man and the Reds will spin this one. They will of course have to blame it on Obama. Just saying.

[elleng]

1. 'Thanks'

I expect the same, if only because that's what's occurred under every 'recent' repug administration. I'll check with my Morgan Stanley financial advisor (but likely your mother-in-law is worth much more than I!)

[Kablooie]

2. Currently we are in a huge empty bubble that will pop soon.

Wall Street euphoria over Trump will collapse as soon as reality starts destroying his plans.

[uponit7771]

7. +1

[queentonic]

3. elleng

If you would report back on what you hear from your agent would be appreciated. I always like to get a parallax view on things. But it is well known among brokers that the Dow is way over-inflated, partly because the Orange Man said he would deregulate the banks etc. so their stocks soared. I agree, as soon as reality sets in the recession will hit.

[democratisphere]

4. When RepubliCONs are in control of the WH, we have recessions

that are typically severe to extreme. Mr. combative about damn near everything and damn near everyone, should hand US a duzzy. May the Great Spirit save us all from harm.

[progree]

5. If I relied on financial "experts" I'd be broke, especially regarding market timing

Oh, I get newsletter offers all of the time about how Obama is causing the dollar to collapse, buy gold from ITM trading, etc because of the national debt, etc. Been going on for decades.

Eventually, yes, there will be another recession. There always is. The P/E ratio has been above historic averages for years, but a big part of the reason is that there is little competition from bonds, with interest rates being at around historic lows.

Yes, this bull market is long in tooth, but it was long in tooth during Obama's last years too. But who knows how long it will last? Nobody at Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs or any other fancy dancy place knows. We had an 18 year bull run from 1982 to 2000, one never knows how short or long these things will be.

Most financial advisors and brokers will tell you whatever they think will induce you to make trades.

[Vogon_Glory]

6. I've suspected that a recession was coming even before the election

That was why I voted for Hillary. I figured she could handle it better.

A lot of people are going to learn the pain of an economic downturn when the social safety net isn't there.

[Cattledog]

8. Robert Reich says the same thing.

"Donald Trump is treating the world economy as a zero-sum game, the assumption being 'make America first, we win or they win,'" Reich said. "He's talking down NATO, the European community. He's making it seem as if trade is really bad for the United States and therefore we are going to put up trade barriers."

"This is not the kind of talk that will inspire confidence in global markets," said Reich, a professor of public policy at the University of California, Berkeley. "And so I don't think this so-called rally, this Trump rally, is going to continue much longer."

[unblock]

9. take all advice with a huge grain of salt, mine included. having said that...

the economic expansion under obama since the "great recession" is already the longest ever; another four years without a recession is just not going to happen. it's a question of when we have yet another republican recession, not if.

moreover, "don't fight the fed" is time-honored wisdom, and bull markets usually stall out around 6 months after the fed starts raising interest rates. this hike cycle is unusual in that the fed is raising rates extremely slowly, but that will accelerate, meaning we don't have much upside potential left.

it's reasonable to assume that, with republicans controlling everything, they'll rack up a lot of deficit spending, considering things like the wall and, of course, huge tax cuts for the rich. and most importantly, democrats not in a position to stop their irresponsibility. this is temporarily good for the economy and the stock market, though a lot of that is anticipated and already priced it.

i can see the rally continuing for another 2-6 months, but after mid-year, it's hard to see where the upside comes from. rates will be higher, and worry about a trade war or even just uncertainty over trade negotiations will delay plans, which will grind the rally to a halt or worse.

if you take donnie at his word that he wants businesses to bring jobs back to america, well, they may be good for american workers, but it does mean less corporate profits and lower stock prices. and that's assuming it works. more likely, it doesn't, and only a few jobs "come back" (hey donnie, we're already at full employment) and the trade uncertainty and retaliation possibilities only reduce economic activity and profits.

[Ilsa]

10. How do I prep for a recession if I have no

Stock market exposure?

[Skittles]

11. with all repukes running the show

COUNT ON IT

[onethatcares]

12. as a carpenter even I can see

that if the benefits and wages of those that provide the foundation to our economy are taken away, the house of cards will tumble.


Sheesh,