If youre a Democrat, these 3 charts should really worry you

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Last edited Tue Jan 31, 2017, 12:51 PM - Edit history (1)

If you’re a Democrat, these 3 charts should really worry you

By Chris Cillizza

January 30 at 4:06 PM

White House press secretary Sean Spicer has an incredibly difficult job: Explaining and defending a president in Donald Trump who views himself as the best spokesman for his own cause and isn't afraid of a little controversy — or a lot of it. From defending the president's exaggerated claims about the crowd size at his inauguration to explaining the travel ban Trump imposed via executive order last Friday, it has not been an easy 10 days behind the podium for Spicer.

But, on Monday, while making the case that congressional Democrats should be wary of outright opposition to Trump's Cabinet nominees or his soon-to-be-announced Supreme Court pick, Spicer made a very important point: that Democrats — when analyzing the overall electoral strength of the party — are not in a very good place at the moment and may want to be wary of assuming they know what the country really wants.

By the numbers, Spicer is 100 percent correct. Here's a chart — built by the indomitable Philip Bump — that makes plain just how dire the down-ballot situation is for Democrats:



....
Chris Cillizza writes “The Fix,” a politics blog for The Washington Post, and hosts the Ciquizza podcast, a weekly news quiz {Subscribe on iTunes or Stitcher}. Follow @thefix

[Me.]

1. AAh Yes, Chris Cillizza

Still bashing Dems any way he can while enabling the worst presidency in history,

[mahatmakanejeeves]

10. That's fine, but what about the charts? NT

[Me.]

36. You're Right About The Charts

They are worrying if accurate and I didn't read the article as I can't get it. Does it also mention an analysis of the Cons, how many Dems have become indies, the demos?

Here's my beef w/Cillizza ...whenever I saw him during the election it was always worry, worry, worry about HRC, her emails, my God her health and so forth. When he was on Andrea Mitchell(often joined by Ruth 'gasp I agree w/Trump' Marcus) the knives would be out for both President Obama & HRC.

[nikibatts]

64. It can only get better from here.

We picked up seats in both the House and the Senate this election. You would never know it from the media, tho.

[Ace Rothstein]

71. The 2018 Senate map is ugly.

We really needed to take PA and WI in 2016. The House? I have my doubts it can be won as currently gerrymandered.

[Me.]

72. Welcome

[brooklynite]

11. Pointing out facts is "bashing" now?

I'll be honest; I hang out with many of the top funders in NYC, and most of them think only about the Presidency and Congress.

[Eleanors38]

46. I got "removed" for far, far less.

[alarimer]

12. How is ignoring the truth going to help?

It is not "bashing" to criticize when warranted, such as when our elected officials are wrong. The DNC for years was run by an incompetent (or worse). Now there is work to do.

[Eleanors38]

47. Respectfuly, be careful.

[Auggie]

2. Earth to DNC ... hello?

[Phoenix61]

3. Being spineless twits is not going to help them

When was the last time there were this many people actively engaged in politics? This is a rogue wave that the dems could and should use to their advantage. They need to push the truth that the American people now have the best government the Koch brothers could buy. If they roll over now there won't be a democratic party left.

[heather blossom]

4. Exactly why we need Howard Dean

Bring back Howard Dean to chair the DNC. The falloff happened after he was removed as DNC and the Dems did away with the 50 state strategy.

[greenman3610]

6. +50

[crazycatlady]

5. This is why you need to get involved at the local level

[uponit7771]

7. ADDRESS GERRYMANDERING and VOTER SUPPRESSION !!! Anything else is a waste time

[Auggie]

16. Democrats need to regain some power first, and to do that they must rebrand themselves ...

starting in the midwest.

[uponit7771]

31. Re-branding wont overcome cheating

[Auggie]

35. You can't stop cheating unless you're in power

[uponit7771]

42. Hmmmmmm, dems can bring attention to it ... bout it, catch 22. Putin did similar

... in Russia when his poll numbers were down his party would lose a lot of seats but never lose control of their parliment.

hmmmm

[Auggie]

44. There is a bit of the chicken and the egg thing here

[crazycatlady]

26. While I don't disagree

Whenever someone screams voter suppression and gerrymandering it is simply ignoring the bigger problem. Democrats don't have the message to overcome it. The US Senate and governor's mansions are not gerrymandered (unless you count long-held state boundaries as gerrymandering).

The real solution to the problem is to rebuild the party at a local and county level, and groom a farm system for state legislatures, congress, and statewide offices. When a Republican runs unopposed, don't blame gerrymandering, blame the Democrats for not bothering to put up a candidate.

[uponit7771]

30. Logically there is no bigger problem, if 100% of dems voted against him and their votes didn't...

... count because of gerrymandering and voter suppression then we still lose.

there's no message that's going to defeat NOT have free and NOT fair elections... right now America doesn't have that

LOGICALLY, we don't know if we have a message that resonates because the elections aren't free and fair.

I honestly think we're ignoring that bigger LOGICAL problem at our demise; Greatness is ignored when there's cheating involved

[CrispyQ]

29. Hate radio.

Hate radio is how all those states got repub governorships & state houses to gerrymander & suppress in the first place. There are some areas of the country where all you can hear is Limbaugh & his ilk. The dems should sponsor radio programs, even at a loss. The reddest states still have lots of progressives & liberals.

[uponit7771]

32. Yes, this is huge part of the problem; who we're talking to but even if we're talking to 100% of the

... correct people and get 100% mobilized that's not going to defeat cheating.

[CrispyQ]

34. I'm a total pessimist & I don't think the dems will get power back in my lifetime.

They should have fought this battle back in the 80s when the GOP was funding right wing think tanks and buying up all the radio stations. The dems rolled over on Bush v Gore. The dems rolled over on Kerry & Ohio. The dems rolled over in 2016. Even when they've had power they haven't addressed problems with the electoral process. The repubs will finagle a few more state legislatures & call a convention.

I think it's game over for the dems. I was hiking with a friend who participated in the woman's march. She was so full of activism, so confident that The People are going to rise up & demand change. I scoffed & said, we'll see in six months. Her very next sentence was, "If you see some issue that's important that I need to respond to, send me an email or text, okay?" I just looked at her & laughed & said, "Point made."

[uponit7771]

43. +1, they didn't prosecute evil so evil is given some kind of deterent... I don't think its too late

... though, they can bring attention to the problem

[TheFrenchRazor]

57. agreed, that's why i think secession may be the only solution. but of course, dems would have

have to have a spine for that to happen, so obviously it won't.

[TheFrenchRazor]

56. get rid of hackable voting machines; anything else is a waste of time. nt

[uponit7771]

61. +1, 1st ...gerrymandering second

[milestogo]

65. + a brazillion

[alarimer]

8. They took their eyes off the ball.

The DNC was mismanaged for years. Time to address the issues of gerrymandering and voter suppression. And also run candidates for as many races as possible, win or lose.

[pbmus]

52. Yes and yes...

[yallerdawg]

9. Republicans rely on stupidity, ignorance and wedge issues.

We Democrats have a fair share of wedge issues.

Our problem is tailoring a message to morons.

[pbmus]

53. Amen..

[The_Voice_of_Reason]

13. Those charts do worry me...

I have three thoughts...

1. We are going to continue to lose elections if we keep squabbling with each other, rather than focusing in on the job at hand. We should be working right now to find new people to run in 2017, 2018, 2019 so forth and so on. It is imperative that we as a party have to realize ALL ELECTIONS, not just Presidential Elections are important, and that we must work together as a team instead of being fractured as a party, constantly worrying about who gets which piece of the pie.

2. We must exercise our vote...that means we do not stay home because we think the White House is in the bag, or that our individual votes don't matter in the big picture.

3. The Democratic Party ceded the White Male vote to the Republican Party, assumed we could win with POC, LGBT, Muslims, Latino's so forth and so on...here is the problem with that math. Most elections are decided on the edges, won by less than five percentage points...white males make up around 35 percent of the voter pie. Without a serious percentage of those voters being brought into our BIG TENT, we will continue to lose more elections than we win. That is REALITY.

Let's all stop our petty bickering, stop acting like spoiled kids on a playground and focus on the old saying, "The enemy of my enemy is my friend." We can argue over slices of pie after we win the pie.

[La Lioness Priyanka]

37. So how did we cede the white male vote?

[The_Voice_of_Reason]

49. Speaking for myself...

I was a BIG Hillary Clinton supporter...that said, I heard her talk directly to suffering White Men once in the entire General Election. We were basically steered to the back of the Democrat bus, and not really made to feel welcome, were made to feel our issues were secondary to a whole different set of priorities, and like it or not, you cannot do that to 35 percent of voters and expect to win.

[La Lioness Priyanka]

50. lol

[Rage4Bacon]

60. And that type of reply is why they are leaving...

Diminish any group of people and dont expect them to vote for your team.

[La Lioness Priyanka]

62. When minorities rights are under threat any you think the world

Isn't prioritizing you, maybe the best one can say is lol.

There is a lot more one can say.

[Rage4Bacon]

63. Sorry, in a democracy, everyone counts...

You dont get to exclude people just because you have some axe to grind.

[La Lioness Priyanka]

66. Wanting equality is not an axe to grind

And no rights were or are being taken away from white men. No one was being excluded and that seemed to be the problem with some people. The very fact that other people got to count and their voices got to be heard.

[Rage4Bacon]

68. Thats your sale pitch to get people to vote Democratic?

Needs some work.

[La Lioness Priyanka]

69. No, I'm not trying to sell anyone anytime

However I am not here to pander to people's nonsense either

[Rage4Bacon]

70. Enjoy being a perpetual loser than...

The rest of us Democrats with some common sense will try to actually make some progress.

[La Lioness Priyanka]

74. LOL. ok then.

[KittyWampus]

14. Republicans now use extreme gerrymandering techniques using even magazine subscriptions to cut

across boundaries. They also use extreme voter suppression preventing legal voters from casting their ballots by the tens of thousands.

This really got going by 2008 especially with repeal of Citizens United and dark money began flooding into systems to help Republicans gain control of states and the voting process. Note- 2008 is where the chart begins in time.

So there needs to be a chart showing amount of re-drawn districts juxtaposed on lost House seats in same time frame.

A book called "Rat Fucked" was in my Library in the New Book section:

https://www.amazon.com/Ratf-ked-Behind-Americas-Democracy/dp/1631491628/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1485878740&sr=8-1&keywords=rat+fucked

With Barack Obama’s historic election in 2008, pundits proclaimed the Republicans as dead as the Whigs of yesteryear. Yet even as Democrats swooned, a small cadre of Republican operatives, including Karl Rove, Ed Gillespie, and Chris Jankowski began plotting their comeback with a simple yet ingenious plan. These men had devised a way to take a tradition of dirty tricks―known to political insiders as “ratf**king”―to a whole new, unprecedented level. Flooding state races with a gold rush of dark money made possible by Citizens United, the Republicans reshaped state legislatures, where the power to redistrict is held. Reconstructing this never- told-before story, David Daley examines the far-reaching effects of this so-called REDMAP program, which has radically altered America’s electoral map and created a firewall in the House, insulating the party and its wealthy donors from popular democracy. Ratf**ked pulls back the curtain on one of the greatest heists in American political history.

[Caliman73]

20. This is the important story

It has been discussed on many progressive shows. Clinton got 3 million more votes than Trump, and while we know that the Electoral College system is the technical reason she lost, the reality is that there was a major suppression of the vote in the districts that were important for her to win.

Another point of discussion is that Democrats in down ballot races won by a collective 22 million votes. The Red firewall that was instituted in the horrific election of 2010 has given the Republicans a cushion of up to 7% in some races. A Democrat can win by 5% more votes but still lose their district race.

[Blue_Tires]

15. 1. Cillizza is a piece of concern trolling garbage

2. He isn't saying anything we don't already know

[TheFrenchRazor]

59. so you agree with these charts, but we're not supposed to care because of the source?

sorry, but if hitler says 2 + 2 = 4 i'm not going to disagree just because it was hitler who said it.

[NCTraveler]

17. It is of great concern. Get involved locally!!! nt.

[TrekLuver]

18. Doesn't the balance of power kinda go back and forth between the parties...no doubt

people will be clamoring for "change" as they always do.

[ck4829]

19. This assumes the government is a reflection of the people, just how representative is it?

* How many votes did each Presidential candidate receive vs who is President?

* What is the income of a representative, what is their income now vs what is the income of the average representative they represent?

* Do the demographics of race, gender, religion, class, etc. look anything close to the people they represent?

* What about the issues they push? Do they match up with what the people want?
For example: https://www.google.com/#q=american+poll+universal+health+care
How many bills for universal health care has any President signed recently do we have?

[Zebby]

21. New poster

Hi Guys, long time lurker but I can't keep quiet any longer. I am really starting to freak out about this situation. This imbecile is wrecking this country beyond repair! Pelosi and Schumer are all we have and they seem shell shocked. The guy is unstable and does something more outrageous everyday! It is going to be a long four years but we need to stick together.RESIST!

[mahatmakanejeeves]

22. "Pelosi and Schumer are all we have...."

What are we? Chopped liver?

[Zebby]

24. What are we? Chopped liver?

You are right! I will do what I can!I am ready to be a Drumph buster!

[mahatmakanejeeves]

25. Also, welcome to DU. NT

[StevieM]

40. Welcome to DU, Zebby!! (eom)

[Wounded Bear]

23. Chart ends at 2015...

I know we picked up 2 Senate seats and 6 house seats this last cycle. Don't know about the Govs and State Legs, but perhaps the doom and gloom is a bit overstated.

[Orsino]

27. Yep. This is, of course, the gerrymandered-to-hell environment...

...in which Republicans back term limits. Expect that cry to vanish if Dems somehow recapture Congress in time for redistricting.

[Wounded Bear]

28. Several key states have had their gerrymandered districts thrown out...

Still hard to pry an incumbant congresscritter out of their seat, but at least these states may get a bit more of a fair districting solution.

If Trump tries to go Erdogan on the courts, you'll know the fix is in and semi-permanent.

[meadowlander]

33. And lacks context.

It starts in 2008 where there were more Dems in the House and Senate than there had been since the 1980s thanks to the backlash against GWB and the global financial crisis and the record turnout for Obama, particularly in the African-American community.

You can't take a chart that starts at the highest point in thirty years, show the next five years and say "see, what you're saying isn't what the majority of Americans are buying".

The chart is showing a normal leveling off from a historic high, and also the results of the massive propaganda campaign against Obama and vote suppression/gerrymandering.

If you poll people on their actual opinions (more regulation for Wall Street, gun control, abortion, war in the Middle East), their answers align much more strongly with the Democratic Party platform. The answer isn't to change the platform. It's to make sure people know what it is and then make sure their vote is actually counted.

[crazycatlady]

38. Delaware has a trifecta, but it might not be for longs

Donate to help maintain it here

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/1/31/1628054/-Democrats-control-the-government-in-just-six-states-Don-t-let-Republicans-shrink-that-to-five#read-more

[rumdude]

39. Wow man, that's super persuasive

Looks like vomit tossed out onto a plate to me.

[Dem2]

41. Lol

I feel like I'm on Free Republic

[Eleanors38]

48. Is Dr. Klarner a member of Free Repubic?

[Calculating]

45. It's called gerrymandering

Until this form of cheating is fixed, we'll never have fair elections.

[roamer65]

51. Exactly.

[HassleCat]

54. Our problem is, we follow Spider's advice.

We get all soft and squishy about defending our core values, and we think the voters might want us to be more cooperative with Republicans, helping them wreck government and screw the working class. Maybe we should take a chance and not worry about Republicans who caution us not to be too bold.

[TheFrenchRazor]

55. throw in electronic voting machine hacking, and the future/present is scary indeed. nt

[AlexSFCA]

58. house

I think that it would be near impossible to regain house but I think senate is within reach.
This is because senate elections are statewide and it is possible that we may have more people on our side than we think; they just didn't show up to vote.
Those who were 16 last November, will be 18 and eligible to vote next time. People are getting active, in that sense, trump united everyone who is against him. We now have a common enemey to defeat so no longer focus on our differences. Florida, in particular, is within reach due to large minority population.

[LittleBlue]

67. BRB vomiting

They're going to win in 2018, aren't they?

[Bettie]

73. So, we should just give up

and accept that there is no hope?

Smile and wave good-bye to our nation?