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Thu Mar 30, 2017, 09:46 PM

2018 US Senate Rating

AL(Strange-R)Solid Republican
AZ (Flake-R)If Flake-R is the Republican nominee and faces a 2nd or 3rd tier Democrat-Lean Republican,If Flake-R is the Republican nominee and faces a top tier Democrat-Sinema-D Tossup Republican,If Ward-R is the Republican nominee and faces a 2nd or 3rd tier Democrat-Tossup Democratic,If Ward-R is the Republican nominee and faces a top tier Democrat-Sinema-D Lean Democratic.
CA (Feinstein-D)Solid Democratic, A Democrat vs Democrat matchup in November could occur with DiFi losing.
CT (Murphy-D)Solid Democratic
DE (Carper-D)Solid Democratic
FL (Nelson-D)Likely Democratic, Nelson-D defeated McCollum-R in 2000,Harris-R in 2006,Mack-R in 2012,and will defeat Scott-R in 2018.
HI (Hirono-D)Solid Democratic
IN (Donnelly-D) Tossup, It depends on the quality of the Republican, If Republicans nominate another Murdock-Donnelly wins, if Republicans nominate another Young-Donnelly could lose.
ME (King-I)Likely Independent
MD (Cardin-D)Solid Democratic
MA (Warren-D)Solid Democratic
MI (Stabenow-D)Likely Democratic
MN (Klobuchar-D)Solid Democratic
MS (Wicker-R)Solid Republican
MO(McCaskill-D) Lean Democratic
MT (Tester-D)Tossup Democratic, Tester-D narrowly won both of his previous US Senate Races against the unpopular Burns-R in 2006 and Rehberg-R in 2012, and will likely win in 2018 by a narrow to high single digit margin.
NE (Fischer-R)Solid Republican
NV (Heller-R)Tossup Democratic, Democrats are likely to nominate a top tier candidate-Dina Titus-D, and Democrats have a greater than 50-50 chance of winning the NV Governors Race after 24 years-former NV Governor Bob Miller's son Ross is likely to be the Democratic nominee for Governor.
NJ (The winner of the 2017/2018 Special Election) Likely Democratic,Menendez-D is likely to be convicted and be forced to resign, Democrats will win the Special Election and win in November.
NM (Heinrich-D)Likely Democratic, A Republican primary matchup between Martinez-R and Pearce-R will be interesting to watch.
NY(Gillibrand-D)Solid Democratic
ND (Heitkamp-D)Tossup-If Republicans nominate a top tier candidate, the outcome of the race will be based on Trump's national approval rating.
OH (Brown-D)Lean Democratic
PA (Casey-D)Likely Democratic
RI (Whitehouse-D)Solid Democratic
TN (Corker-R)Solid Republican
TX (Cruz-R)Lean Republican with a chance of becoming a Tossup Democratic pickup- Democrats have a top tier candidate Beto O'Rourke, If O'Rourke-D runs a good campaign, Cruz-R self destructs and Trump remains unpopular, O'Rourke-D could be the Democratic version of Scott Brown (2010 MA US Senate Election)
UT (Hatch-R)Solid Republican
VT (Sanders-I)Solid Independent
VA (Kaine-D)Lean Democratic, Gillespie-R narrowly loses the 2017 VA Governors Race and decides to make a third run for statewide office, Kaine's margin of victory over Gillespie in 2018 will be somewhat greater than Warner's margin of victory over Gillespie in 2014.
WA (Cantwell-D)Solid Democratic
WV (Manchin-D)Lean Democratic
WI (Baldwin-D)Lean Democratic
WY (Barrasso-R)Solid Republican.
Democrats lose IN and ND but gain AZ,NV,and TX. +1D

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Reply 2018 US Senate Rating (Original post)
nkpolitics1212 Mar 2017 OP
Dawson Leery Mar 2017 #1
nkpolitics1212 Mar 2017 #2
Tatiana Mar 2017 #3
nkpolitics1212 Mar 2017 #4

Response to nkpolitics1212 (Original post)

Thu Mar 30, 2017, 09:57 PM

1. Cook and Sabato seem to believe

that Democrats will not lose any seats next year. Low tier GOP challengers combined with subpar Presidential approval ratings = good night for Democrats.

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Response to Dawson Leery (Reply #1)

Thu Mar 30, 2017, 10:23 PM

2. In 2006 the last midterm election with a Democratic wave,

Vulnerable Democratic held seats in MD and NJ remained in the Democratic column by a high single digit margin. Democrats won PA,OH,RI,MO,MT,and VA.
2018, Democrats will hold onto the most vulnerable seats IN,MT,and ND, pick up AZ,NV,and TX-the Macaca race. Democrats regain control of the US Senate.

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Response to nkpolitics1212 (Original post)

Thu Mar 30, 2017, 10:30 PM

3. We must defend and pick up Nevada and Arizona.

That's a tall order (Arizona), but we need to really push hard. I still believe running on Trump and the Party of Russia is a winning issue for the midterm (not in a Presidential).

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Response to Tatiana (Reply #3)

Thu Mar 30, 2017, 11:43 PM

4. Nevada,Arizona,and Texas have a strong Latino (Mexican) electorate, If the wall is unpopular by

majority of the voters in those 3 states, run a campaign to filibuster Trump's US Mexico border wall proposal. This will increase voter turnout in the Latino community.

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