So where are we Senate wise?

[dsc]

We are currently 53/47. We have 23 seats up while the GOP has 10 seats up. Of our 23, we have 11 safe or virtually safe seats. We should or will keep our seats in HI, CA, DE, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT, WA. We have 5 more seats that we are in petty good shape in CT, FL, MI, OH, WV but we could still lose if we have a bad year. That leaves 7 seats NM, VA, ND, NE, MO, MT, WI. Of those 7, we have pretty much lost NE. We are about tied in all of the other 6. Obama will win NM, VA, WI. He will lose ND, MT, MO. In WI, we will win if we run against anyone but Thompson and have a 50/50 shot against him. Thompson is behind in his primary. We need to win five of the six if we gain no GOP seats. We probably will lose ND. Thus we would have to win the other five. Doable, but tough.

Of the GOP seats we have only four possibilities for pick ups. Maine is a good shot presuming King, who has a prohibitive lead caucuses with us. MA is 50/50. Nevada is 50/50. Indiana is about 40/60 against us right now. This will be a very tough year for us in the Senate regardless of how Obama does. Our best scenario, if we win everything we have a shot at, would be plus 2 for a total of 55. Highly unlikely. Our worst scenario, if we lose everything we might lose and King goes with the majority the GOP would gain 12 seats for a total of 59. Also highly unlikely.

The most likely scenario is that the Senate will be close to even.

[PoliticAverse]

1. Neither side is likely to have a filibuster proof majority...

If the Democrats still have the majority maybe Harry Reid will finally make good on his repeated threats to change the filibuster
rule on the first day.

[Dawson Leery]

2. The GOP was in the same position we are now in (back in 2010).

Most races broke their way in the fall(the tea party gave away Delaware, Nevada and Colorado).

[hfojvt]

3. ah. so I take it that means I should dig deep and donate to Sherrod Brown

and maybe DU could do a fundraiser for Tammy Baldwin.

Thanks for putting this together.

[dsc]

4. between the two I would choose Baldwin

Brown seems to be in pretty good shape while she has a near even race if Thompson win his primary.

[hfojvt]

5. I am afraid Thompson will be tough to beat

although I don't understand why Wisconsin isn't sick of him by now. How can they miss him if he won't go away?

[flamingdem]

6. From Nate Silver's blog on Senate races

[dsc]

8. I purposely didn't look at Nate Silver before my post

but it looks like we have quite a bit of agreement. That said, I tend to think Silver underestimates campaigns. One of the reasons I ranked Ohio as a fairly safe race is Brown's campaign ability vs Josh Marshall being a total moron.

[flamingdem]

7. Rove and Koch would have us worried about other things as they focus $ on Senate Races

It will be a mess if we lose the Senate. We need to keep this information front and center here and elsewhere so people know where to spend donation dollars.