When a loss is a win: 25-point swing in Kansas House race could mean Democratic landslide in 2018

[applegrove]

http://shareblue.com/when-a-loss-is-a-win-25-point-swing-in-kansas-house-race-could-mean-democratic-landslide-in-2018/

by Matthew Chapman

SNIP..............


On Tuesday, something amazing happened in the special election for Kansas’s 4th Congressional District, vacated by Republican Rep. Mike Pompeo when he was named Donald Trump’s CIA director. Democratic Army veteran and civil rights lawyer James Thompson squared off against Republican state Treasurer Ron Estes.

This district, encompassing the city of Wichita and a large part of southern Kansas, was never supposed to be competitive. Republicans have held it for 24 years. It is the district where Republican mega-donor Charles Koch lives. In 2016, Trump carried it by 27 points, while Pompeo himself enjoyed a 32-point blowout last November.

But it became obvious in the final few days that the race was going to be shockingly close. Estes struggled to fundraise, and even some Republican operatives admitted Thompson ran a far superior campaign. At the last minute, Republicans scrambled to save Estes with ads, robocalls from Trump and Mike Pence, and a joint rally with Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX).

Ultimately, Thompson lost, but only by 7 points — a 25-point swing toward Democrats. Despite the fact voter turnout in non-presidential races typically favors the GOP, they underperformed their 2016 results in every single county, most of them by double digits. Early voting indicated even many registered Republicans voted for Thompson.


..............SNIP

[bekkilyn]

1. It also helps show that we don't need DINO's to win in red states. (nt)

[Lucky Luciano]

4. INCOMING!!

[Demsrule86]

5. No it doesn't...a more moderate candidate might have won.

[DemocraticSocialist8]

9. What do you mean by moderate?

What policy positions do you think a more "moderate" candidate would've won on? People in the Dem party have been saying this for years and it hasn't helped. Running away from progressivism and trying to be Republican-lite only helps Republicans.

[Demsrule86]

12. Kansas is blood red...why wouldn't a more moderate candidate do better?

Howard Dean chose candidates that could win in the states they ran in...if we have one progressive message (and I am a progressive by the way...old fashioned bleeding heart liberal), it may not win in red states. That being said, I consider the fact we got his close to be in a state that Trump won by just under 30 points indicative of our improving chances to take the House in 18 and rip the gavel from the Ayn Rand loving hands of Paul Ryan.

[bekkilyn]

16. People will just vote for the Republican or not bother to vote.

More moderate candidate = yawn

[DemocraticSocialist8]

17. There's no way to know...what we do know is a pretty liberal

candidate came close to pulling off an upset after being down by 20 points. When I hear people say "moderate" I hear "establishment." I hear "don't fight for things that are actually popular." Like I said, Dems have been doing that since the 90's and the results are mixed at best. The demographics in America are changing and what made sense in '92 doesn't make sense in 2017. People are much more open to progressive ideas now. That's why Sanders, a dang socialist, is the most popular politician in the country. Problem is, people on the Right don't like to think of themselves as liberal...so they vote Rethug out of ignorance and tradition. Deep down inside, I think they don't want to admit they've had it wrong this whole time.

[Demsrule86]

19. We will never know.

We are a big tent party...we can field candidates who can win in red states...Dean did it.

[mythology]

8. There are no DINOs

Manchin is the Democratic Senator who most votes with Republicans. He votes with the Democratic Party 75% of the time. The Republican Senator who most votes with Democrats votes with us about 25% of the time.

Also, you did notice that the Democratic candidate lost right? Getting closer doesn't actually mean a lot in isolation.

[Squinch]

2. No chicken counting! But it's a great sign, isn't it?

[applegrove]

3. It is indeed.

[Demsrule86]

13. Yes it is.

[elleng]

6. COULD, of course,

but noticing how many solicitations for $$$ everyone's getting? ALREADY expensive.

[0rganism]

7. long time to wait

18 months... a lot can happen in that kind of time
how many wars can Trump start by then? will the border wall be seen as a fantastic job creator in southern states? will tax cuts for the obscenely wealthy be viewed positively? will "president" Trump knock 5 strokes off his golf game?

and i wouldn't underestimate the amount of $$$ the Kochbros are going to dump into any races deemed competitive

[adigal]

10. We must GOTV in Nov 2018, but we are going to get the House back!!

and then impeachment, if Trump hasn't been arrested or eaten himself to death by then.

Begone, asshole!

[bathroommonkey76]

11. Georgia's congressional race in a few days will give us a better idea about

2018.

[Demsrule86]

14. Not really.

We may or may not win there. It is Georgia after all. And the GOP are pulling out all the stops running terrible ads night and day...sis lives in Georgia; she keeps me current. We may even take red districts if they attempt to mess with Social Security and Medicare.

[bathroommonkey76]

15. I'm willing to bet the GA race will be closer than the KS race that happened last night.

Of course no one expected the KS race to be as close at it was in such a red district. We'll have to wait and see...

[Demsrule86]

20. I am hopeful...a win would be so awesome.

[Paladin]

18. COULD be a landslide---if the party doesn't commit suicide, again. (nt)