Would North Korea really launch a nuke

[Cyrano]

if they felt threatened enough?

Kim Jong-un is the equivalent of a two year old child with his finger on a nuclear trigger. As of now, his nukes can reach South Korea and Japan (as far as we know).

Now is the time for caution, restraint, patience and wisdom in the White House. ... But we all know that is not what we have in the White House.

So let me say this as calmly as possible: Be afraid. Be very afraid.

A minority of Americans put a total moron into the presidency. Somehow, someway, we can never allow this to happen again. (Assuming we live through this latest nuclear crisis.)

[unblock]

1. frankly trust kim jong-un more than donnie not to go nuclear.

kim jong-un may be ruthless and wacky, but these tin-pot dictators are usually quite good at self-preservation, if nothing else.

saber-rattling and building more nukes and rocket launchers and all that plays well domestically and frankly doesn't risk much in and of itself.

actually going nuclear, he must know, means he will be destroyed one way or another. this is not a hitler who thinks he can actually conquer the world. he'd rather have his own little corner of the world than risk being deposed and/or killed.

so he'll threaten, but not actually use nukes.


donnie, on the other hand, not only has little clue as to what he's doing and zero heart, but he likely thinks that actually using nukes will be a "win" for him. he's not nearly as likely as un to see a downside in actually using nukes.

[Cyrano]

10. It's impossible to know Kim Jong-un's

state of mind. We have no idea if he's occasionally rational or not. We do however know that Trump is more often than not an irrational, head case.

At present, I have more reason to fear Trump's response to a provocation by North Korea than I do to fear Kim Jong-un.

This doesn't mean I'm right. It just means that we have two unpredictable, unstable men in the wrong place at the wrong time.

And that puts us closer to a nuclear misstep than we have ever been.

Frightening, as in totally terriflying.

[unblock]

11. i'm leaning more on the incentives.

kim jong-un has so much more to lose here than donnie.

[Cyrano]

15. But does Kim Jong-un understand that?

This is an isolated guy who knows only what his sycophants tell him -- much like Trump.

At least, that's my understanding of what's taking place in North Korea. It's virtually impossible to know what information (news of reality) reaches him and what doesn't.

On the other hand, we know that the information that reaches Trump comes from Fox, Breitbart.com, etc.

[unblock]

16. he's certainly acted as if he's content enough with the status quo.

he hasn't done anything like invade poland lately. i think even wacky people can reasonably predictable based on their actions, and kim jong-un's actions are rather more rhetorically provocative than actually aggressive.

[Cyrano]

18. Hope you're right

[RKP5637]

26. That's what I'm thinking too. Kim, must take pride in the buildings he's built and stuff that

would all be destroyed along with Kim. The sociopath tRump has nothing to lose, he won't feel anything.

[jberryhill]

2. Unknown

[dalton99a]

3. The North Korean regime has never had a predilection for mass suicide

[Grammy23]

4. We have a very dangerous game of chicken going on that bears watching.

With two dangerous "leaders" who are neither stable nor thoughtful, I can only hope that they are bluffing one another in hopes that the other side will back down. With tRump, you never know. He might do something as a show of Force to allow him to save face. But NK could take the bait and respond forcefully so THEY can save face. That's how wars get started so how this plays out is anyone's guess. However, I won't be planning any trips to South Korea or Japan any time soon. Very dangerous times for sure.

[sarisataka]

5. A good question

Nuclear deterrence has relied on all parties being rational actors. North Korea has shown that they are not always rational. They do, however, have a sense of self-preservation. They'd have to know that in any nuclear exchange North Korea will cease to exist in any meaningful way.

Now if North Korea felt they were protected by a larger country's nuclear umbrella then they might start seriously considering risk versus benefit of using a nuclear weapon.

[AJT]

6. It would be great if the somewhat sane inner circle,

the ones he hasn't killed yet, could cause "regime change" .

[tonyt53]

7. A bigger question is, does the US have the standing to nuke NK if NK nukes SK?

Yes, we have troops in Seoul, but what if NK hit further south than Seoul? What standing does the US have for nuclear retaliation?

[sarisataka]

9. Yes

The Mutual Defense Treaty Between the United States and the Republic of Korea; October 1, 1953 is still in effect.

[stevenleser]

19. In addition to saristaka's post above, the US (and UN) is technically still at war with NK.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/explainer/2009/05/are_we_at_war_with_north_korea.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Armistice_Agreement#United_Nations_statements

and DPRK has indicated that it has withdrawn from even the Armistice several times:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Armistice_Agreement#North_Korean_announcements_to_withdraw_from_the_agreement

[GulfCoast66]

34. Get your point that there was not treat sighed

But thank god we are not actually at war with them as in declaration of war.

That gives the President almost dictatorial powers. We can never give him a declaration of war.

[forgotmylogin]

8. I can't imagine that their saber-rattling isn't grounded in fear.

It's almost like that guy in school who was always picked on, so he carries around nunchucks and practices with them obviously and openly as a warning.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

13. Not defending NK or any of their actions

but we bombed them pretty badly during the Korean War, which laid the groundwork for much of the anger and fear they have towards us. There was a good VOX article up last week about this.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

12. Maybe if it looked like we were closing in on him

he might launch as a desperate last-ditch maneuver. I don't *think* that he would launch a pre-emptive strike. Life's good for him and his family. Why would he jeopardize it? I've always been more worried about NK more than any other country in terms of actually attacking us, but never felt like we might actually get into a shooting war with NK until Trump came along and started.......um....rattling the sabers.

[EX500rider]

14. It's doubtful they have a working warhead yet...

....blowing up a crude underground device is one thing, making a nuke small enough to fit in a nose cone and then survive launch G's and re-entry is a whole-nother deal..

[longship]

20. Yup! A weaponized bomb may not yet be existent.

And their rockets blow up on the launch pad!!!

The DPRK does not have a deliverable nuke is my thinking.

[Cyrano]

22. NK has already launched rockets that can reach

South Korea and Japan. Can they reach beyond that? Who knows?

And would our intelligence services tell us if they could? Who knows?

Seems we are living in a "perhaps, maybe, kinda', sorta'" world.

Well, what the hell. Something's gonna kill you one way or another.

[EX500rider]

25. Missiles Vs missiles with working nuclear warheads 2 different things.

Any even their missiles have a horrible track record.

[treestar]

17. I doubt it

He doesn't want to die, he wants to stay in power. Have all the privileges he has and continuing taking from the people of NK.

[WoonTars]

21. Nope. But they wouldn't hesitate to bomb the shit out of Seoul...

...

[adigal]

23. I try to see what will happen here

Let's say Kim Jong-un launches a test, and we hit them with either a small nuke or targeted missiles to take out their ability to do more. Now we have stuck the stick in the hornet's nest. They were doing a test, we attacked them. At this point, Kim will absolutely retaliate against South Korea, at the least. Maybe Japan. Maybe with nukes, maybe with regular weapons. Then we hit back. China may get involved. And so on. And so on.
Jesus. Just choke the guy's banks and money. Otherwise, I don't see ANY way we don't kill millions.

[Cyrano]

24. Your fear is my greatest fear regarding Trump.

It's why I dread this creature being in charge of our nuclear arsenal.

What decent human being could sleep at night knowing that this unsatable, ignorant man (Trump) would/could actually launch a nuclear missile for some imagined slight from North Korea?

[Eliot Rosewater]

27. Yes.

WE have to do something eventually, the last person on earth qualified to do it is trump.

[Binkie The Clown]

28. Remain calm -- All is well.

[Rustyeye77]

29. Nooo... and if he did who cares about Seattle and SF?

SARCASM

[David__77]

30. If that country's leadership determined that it faced a life and death struggle, perhaps.

I doubt that there is any organized faction that would inhibit military mobilization. If the country's leadership determined that it faced a "regime change" scenario, then I suppose it could determine to use all means at its disposal to make such a scenario as "expensive" as possible. "Mutually-assured destruction" works when actors, by all appearances, are prepared to go all-out.

[Motley13]

31. He is as crazy as prez putz, which is what scares me

no telling what these 2 idiots would do. At least putz has some reasonable people like Manis & the other general Mc sth holding him back. Kim has none, he has executed anyone that disagrees or belittles him.

[NewDealProgressive]

32. I doubt it. And I don't know that I believe the hype about Kim.

I don't know that any of the propaganda we hear about North Korea is true. Whether it be his demeanor, their military capability or anything at all really. Yeah, We know that it's a cultish society that control the actions of its citizens but do we really know that Kim Jong-un is this crazy loose cannon that everybody says he is? He supposedly went to a prestigious western school (Oxford?) and presumably isn't subject to the closed society as a ranking party member. In other words, I don't know that he's "crazy" or "petulant", I hear propaganda that says he is.

My money is on him being smarter and far less delusional and petulant than Comrade Тяцмр. We know for a fact what he is.

[Voltaire2]

33. Only if the regime was being attacked.

There is no evidence that North Korea would initiate a nuclear attack, knowing that annihilation would be the outcome, but if instead the regime was faced with annihilation, they would have nothing to lose by launching their nukes, that us if they actually have any operational weapons.

Note also that they have enough deployed artillary to pretty much wipe out Seoul in fairly short order using conventional weapons, which is one reason South Korea is not too keen on confrontation.