Democrats Can Retake the House in 2018 Without Converting a Single Trump Voter

[SecularMotion]

 If 84 percent of the people who voted Democratic in 2016 come back out and vote Democratic again in 2018, Democrats should be able to reclaim control of the House of Representatives. There is also a narrower path to recapturing control of the Senate, but that’s a topic for a future column (spoiler alert, the Senate path requires massive investment in and mobilization of Latinos in Nevada, Arizona, and Texas). The results of the special elections in Kansas and Georgia have highlighted the path to victory in House races, but in order to seize this opportunity, progressives must focus their time, energy, and money on organizing and mobilizing core Democratic voters rather than squandering precious time and resources trying to convince Trump voters of the error of their ways.

Democrats need a net pickup of 24 House seats to re-take control, and there are 23 Republican incumbents in Congressional districts that were won by Hillary Clinton in November. There are another 5 seats where Clinton came within 2 percent of winning. Those 28 districts hold the key to retaking control of that chamber.

 The opportunity of the hour stems from the fact that the party that holds the White House historically has frequently had lower turnout in the midterm elections that immediately follow the presidential election. This makes sense; it is easy for complacency to set in after your team has won the biggest prize in politics. Conservatives and Republicans got what they wanted in 2016. They no longer have the bogeyman of a Black man in the White House, and the fury of opposition is not present to the degree it was when they came out in large numbers to voice opposition to all things Obama.

The diminished enthusiasm of Republican voters became markedly apparent in the recent special elections for vacant House seats in Kansas and Georgia over the past two weeks. In Kansas, Republican voter turnout declined by 62 percent while Democratic turnout fell just 32 percent. In the Georgia special election the following week, the pattern persisted with Republican turnout dropping 51 percent, twice the falloff of Democratic voters whose participation receded by just 25 percent.

https://www.thenation.com/article/democrats-can-retake-the-house-in-2018-without-converting-a-single-trump-voter/

[Cha]

1. Thank you for this, Secular

[still_one]

2. ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

[brer cat]

4. +++++++++++++++

I share your enthusiasm!

[jimlup]

3. YES! This!

We only need to bring together the Obama coalition, and we don't need the stupid people.

[greymattermom]

5. And we need young, energetic candidates

new faces, like Jon Ossoff. He is appealing because he's not the same old same old. I've met him twice, and he's great in small groups too. He speaks in whole sentences, and the first thing he says it "This race is not about me".

[Paladin]

6. So, we don't have to shit-can our principles in a wild dash to attract trump's white guys?

How refreshing.

[hamsterjill]

18. +1

n/t

[Wounded Bear]

19. That got a chuckle...

But so, so true. No, we don't need to trash all of our values to attract voters who won't vote our way in any event.

[IronLionZion]

22. White guys don't belong to Trump

And Obama won 2 presidential elections somehow. Make Dems Win Again

[we can do it]

30. Yes!

[Atman]

7. Nope.

They've gerrymandered their way into perpetuity. We need to be working on changing that law, because the Republicans are masters at cheating.

[vi5]

8. Oh, but then what excuses would we have?

But attracting conservative white guys who will never vote for us anyway has been the Democratic party's reason for being and modus operandi for the better part of 20 years now.

If people start to believe we can attract more voters by NOT pandering to people who will never vote for Democrats anyway, then that's like Toto pulling the curtain back on the wizard.

[dsc]

9. This is somewhat misleading in that it doesn't account for those who voted for Hillary and those

Congress people. The three Miami districts on that list had vast numbers who detest Trump due to his immigrant bashing ways, but otherwise are pretty solid Republicans to give one example. I have no idea which of her voters would be the more likely to vote in 2018

[nikibatts]

10. Ahhhh...someone who really understands the voting pubic.

[mcar]

11. When more vote, Democrats win

[Coventina]

12. It would be a waste of time, anyway. They remain deplorable.

[Bettie]

13. Thanks for giving me

a sliver of hope.

Still not quite seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, but hoping I've just got my eyes closed!

[NewJeffCT]

14. Agree that the House will be easier to flip than the Senate

We need good candidates running in all 435 races. If Trump's popularity keeps going down, there is also a good chance that we can flip a few seats in Trump districts as well.

In the 2010 "Wave" election, Republicans picked up around 70 seats. In the 2006 "Wave" election, Democrats gained around 30. In the 1994 "Wave" election, Republicans gained around 50 seats. Republicans have gained more due to financial edges and media control (Rush Limbaugh first gained prominence in the early 90s hammering Bill Clinton over everything...)

The Senate map is horrible, though. Republicans only defend 8 seats and Democrats need to defend 25. Keeping the senate even would be a victory for Democrats and any pickup a resounding success given the huge edge Republicans have in outside spending.

[world wide wally]

15. Democrats always try to get 100% of the vote

Despite all the other BS, Karl Rove understood that all you need is 51%
I suggest Dems take a page from that book

[gordianot]

16. I know it is hard refrain from discussing 2016 party divisions.

...and falling for manipulation. A Democratic House could lead to a restful night.

[tiredtoo]

17. As a progressive

From the OP. "progressives must focus their time, energy, and money on organizing and mobilizing core Democratic voters rather than squandering precious time and resources trying to convince Trump voters of the error of their ways. "
I have no misconceptions about converting Trump voters. They will either see the error of their ways or they will steadfastly stand their ground with no input from me.
The progressive voters I am working with are indeed working on getting everyone on board. Still experiencing some difficulty in getting total agreement. We must all work for our common goals and put aside our differences, knowing some of our personal goals will have to be compromised.

[Wounded Bear]

20. Well said...

and it's not Trump voters we need anyway. What we need to do is motivate the 60-70% of voters who tend to stay home in mid-terms to show up and vote. That's why the Repubs fear what happened at the women's march and other protests since the inaugural. They fear that all of the people who have been sleeping through elections might wake up and start participating.

[Watalapan]

21. Please do not take anything for granted

Russians mighty influence the process again or trump will come up with another dumb excuse or Promise

[IronLionZion]

23. So we shouldn't focus our energies on fighting amongst ourselves?

and feel despair about gerrymandering and racist voter suppression?

Maybe the Russians will steal every house district so we should give up and not try. Both parties are the same. No point voting. blah blah blah

I like the optimism in the OP. Let's make it happen. For us it's always been about turnout. For them, it's always been about stopping our people from turning out.

It would be sweet to have our people fired up while the other side sits at home wondering when the coal and factory jobs Trump promised are coming back.

[JudyM]

24. We can definitely do this. The threat of having things taken away is a most powerful motivator.

Studies have demonstrated this time and again. This time around that gives us the advantage in getting turnout.

[Enoki33]

25. There is good reason to believe if the GOP keeps pushing

for ACA repeal, continues obstructing the Trump/Russia investigations, not compelling Trump to release his tax returns and casting a blind eye to his craven conflicts of interest they will be handing the house to the Democrats. We will see what happens in Georgia in June.

[pnwmom]

26. We had millions of voters purged from the registration rolls, so first we need to get them

registered again.

The program used by Crosscheck meant that anyone with a common name, like Juan Garcia or Mary Washington, is targeted -- and they are also more likely to be minorities who vote Democratic.

[beachbum bob]

27. if democrats get off their asses, we win

and that is what we need to work for

[SecularMotion]

28. We need to energize Democrats

not chase after fickle independents or Trump voters.

[SecularMotion]

29. Kick