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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhat A War With North Korea Would Look Like
George Friedman | Friday, 28 April 2017 07:40 (EST)
The possibility of war between the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea and the United States has recently increased. It is necessary to consider what such a war might look like.
I use the term war rather than merely American attacks on North Korean nuclear and missile program facilities. We have to consider the possibility of North Koreas response and a more extended conflict.
Such a war would be based on North Koreas decision to move its nuclear program to a stage where the US and other countries conclude it is possible North Korea is close to a deliverable nuclear weapon.
Given that the North Koreans could not survive a nuclear exchange, it is hard to understand why they would have moved their program to this point.
https://www.equities.com/news/what-a-war-with-north-korea-would-look-like
samnsara
(17,605 posts)rug
(82,333 posts)Granted, he's dealing with an idiot, so you never know.
Calculating
(2,955 posts)When you have an idiot going up against a lunatic who thinks he's a God King it's hard to predict the outcome.
PJMcK
(21,998 posts)There are also some questionable conclusions. The most significant is Mr. Friedman's suggested sequence of events when he writes about North Korea's counter-attack following a pre-emptive US attack on the DPRK's nuclear facilities. It would be a foolish military tactic to attack the facilities then wait to see what happens.
A more forceful and powerful US strategy would be to target the artillery, munitions and barracks in the first wave of attacks. This would limit the inevitable damage to South Korea. In the subsequent attacks, which would happen in immediate sequence, the nuclear facilities would be hit. Attack the opposing forces first, then the military facilities.
Unless something catastrophic were to happen, the US would not need to use nuclear weapons. Our conventional weaponry is far more powerful and plentiful than North Korea's.
Another issue is Mr. Friedman's assertion that the North Korean Surface-To-Air weaponry is equal to the United States' aircraft defenses. It is very likely, given North Korea's isolation, that their battle technologies are inferior to those of the United States' arsenal. The US would sustain loses, of course, because it would be war. But the strength and depth of the US's forces means that our military could sustain much more than North Korea's could.
By no means am I advocating for a pre-emptive attack of any sort on the DPRK. It is beyond foolishness to seriously think any such plan could succeed. Diplomacy must resolve this conflict. I just think that the author of the article is not articulating the most likely battle plan should the Trump Administration take such a dangerous path.
In fact, it's hard to think of any outcome where nuclear weapons don't come into play should Trump order any kind of attack against North Korea.
Donald Trump is an idiot. He's also a fool to be poking at this hornet's nest.
But thanks for posting the link, rug. It's a very interesting read. Enjoy your weekend.
Calculating
(2,955 posts)They take the food aid or w/e and then continue on developing more weapons. They've violated all diplomatic efforts for the past 16+ years.
PJMcK
(21,998 posts)Calculating
(2,955 posts)Whether it be by assassination, military takeover, Chinese intervention, or regime change. I don't care how, he just needs to go. Maybe after the Kim family is completely wiped off the Earth, the North Koreans will see through the delusion that the Kims are some kind of Gods.