How can anyone be so sure the ACHA will die in the Senate?

[babylonsister]

Inquiring minds, given we're in the minority...

[shraby]

1. I believe it needs 60 votes in the senate.

[haele]

8. If McConnell doesn't want to nuke the filibuster again...

It depends on how secure he feels the GOP has a lock on this country. If they're thinking the Coup has already gone down and the Mercers/Kochs have bought enough of the legal underpinnings of this country, he will try to get it to the President on a simple majority.
He hates Obama and everything Obama did. He and a lot of the GOP hierarchy were so insulted that a black man who "hadn't paid his political dues" was elected twice, they need to destroy all traces of him. The GOP may have been resigned and would have suffered through Kerry, or even Saunders - as both of these guys are long-term members of "the club" - but Obama was never supposed to be able to sit behind the desk at the Oval Office, except as a joke when he may have been an invited guest.

Haele

[burnbaby]

2. I was thinking about that

since officially ACA is repealed so all those people under ACA now need insurance. They have to pass something

[regnaD kciN]

7. The ACA is NOT "officially repealed"...

...and won't be unless this bill passes both houses.

[DesertRat]

10. No, it's NOT "officially repealed" yet. nt

[NightWatcher]

3. These are some of the same who said "trump, that's crazy, he'll never win"

[rock]

27. They were right!

It is crazy!

[LenaBaby61]

28. "These are some of the same who said "trump, that's crazy, he'll never win"

Yeah, but look at what it took for him to win:

Interference by a foreign government in various ways.
Sexism, racism.
GOP voter suppression on steroids.
A corporate media that never took tRumputin to task.
And to be honest, many people din't even bother voting, and there were people who voted for tRumputin because all of their news comes via Faux Noose.

[woodsprite]

37. Or ones that said "Trump. I hope he wins the Repub primary." n/t

[The_Casual_Observer]

4. We can't be sure of anything anymore.

On top of this, they are making plans to send thousands more to the Afghanistan War.

This is a god damn mess.

[democratisphere]

5. No one can be sure of anything after today's vote.

redumbliCONs need to be purged from Congress in 2018. It's our only hope.

[Freethinker65]

6. It could probably get 51 (50 + Pence), but I think it needs 60?

If they can get it passed with 50 unchanged, they will let McCain, Collins, Graham, and Murkowski do some concerned posturing interviews and then draw straws to see who gets to bring the GOP to the 50 votes they need.

[exboyfil]

11. What stops them from changing the rules again?

It is about naked power at this point. The only reason why they won't is seeing what a disaster this piece of legislation is. They got what they wanted - an elimination of the taxes on the wealthiest class.

A big part of the discussion needs to be about loss of employment. The money is not there. Basically 55-64 will spend out there assets and go onto Medicaid anyway - there really is no choice. That is until Medicaid collapses.

Less dollars so less consumption of healthcare. Less employment. Unless you believe that there is that much wasted consumption, then lots of unmet needs will not get filled.

[Freethinker65]

20. I cannot see them changing the rules for this.

They can get their tax cuts for the wealthy by other means anyway, and they most likely will. I agree this whole scam was never about healthcare, it was about getting those taxes back for the wealthy and undoing anything Obama did.

I already posted elsewhere that I also think this is a disaster for the low to moderate consumer class because of the uncertainty of future healthcare options. (Disclaimer: I am one of those in the middle class with pre-existing conditions that was depending on getting non-subsidized but previously affordable comprehensive health insurance on the exchange to bridge a Medicare gap I will have when my spouse retires) I will now give more consideration to taking my savings out of the country where cost of living and medical care is more affordable during the gap years to Medicare ...if Medicare still exists

[exboyfil]

22. I am already looking at working until 68

so my wife will be 65 when I retire. I strongly suspect my employer will have something to say about that. I see myself with high blood pressure and high cholesterol with a wife who has diabetes and high cholesterol trying to deal with a job loss at 55.

I will most likely not be able to get a job with health benefits if I lose my current position. It is the end of the road.

[mn9driver]

24. Same boat here.

I need to find a way to go to 72 in order to keep my family covered. It's not really a choice.

[Freethinker65]

25. Husband is 59, I am 52

We have been saving to pay for insurance for me through the exchange when my husband retires. My pre-existing condition, psoriasis (and psoriatic arthritis in remission for over 10 years), will now potentially increase my insurance rates over 15 thousand/year more than we had planned. I am well educated but relatively unskilled for today's job market. I was considering returning to the workforce part time now that my sometimes struggling son is off at college. Now, if the ACHA passes, I will be looking for a job that offers at least the minimum of coverage even with high deductibles and buy-ins for the future. I might just end up taking our savings and move for a few years. I really do not know. .....and I know I am one of the fortunate and "lucky" ones that might be able to do so. There are far more people that do not have this option.

[regnaD kciN]

12. Some parts need 50+Pence, others need 60...

The Repugs COULD do destroy major parts of the ACA such as subsidies and Medicaid expansion through budget reconciliation, which only requires a bare majority, but other parts require 60 votes. For example, Democrats could make a royal mess by refusing to let the repeal of the individual mandate pass. Our capacity for gumming up the works could be the one weapon we still have.

[Amishman]

35. They'll do it all with 50. The final say on if it counts for reconciliation is the VP

The process is if something is challenged as not eligible for reconciliation, it goes to the Senate Parliamentarian. They inform the vice president of their decision. The VP can then ignore it. It's really rare but has happened before (last time was 1975)

[WillowTree]

17. Not if they push it through with budget reconciliation.

If you recall, that's how the Democrats got the ACA through the senate with only a 53 seat majority.

[NewRedDawn]

38. McCain & Closeted Lindsey are not moderates!

This is such a myth! They vote lockstep other than Russia interference with PUTIN PUKES.

[Freethinker65]

41. Exactly, but they get trotted out to do interviews to seem reasonable every time

Then on cue, like magic, enough of them (including Murkowski and Collins) will cave to get to 50 votes.

[avebury]

9. Is the 60 vote requirement

because it impacts the budget?

If so maybe there is a shot if it failing in the Senate.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

13. If it was strictly budget they wouldn't need 60 votes

What they added to make it palatable to the Freedumb caucus changed that.

[taught_me_patience]

29. The 60 vote requirement is because they changed regulations (to appease Freedom Caucus)

if it strictly impacted the budget, they could pass it with 51 through reconciliation. If Dems maintain the filibuster, there's zero chance of it passing.

[GoCubsGo]

14. Because by then, the CBO will have scored it.

It will be UGLY. This isn't a healthcare bill. It's a repeal of the taxes on financial transactions that were used to fund the subsidies. Just the fact that it will massively balloon deficit should be enough for many rethugs in the Senate to vote against it. Not to mention that when people understand what just got passed, they are going to waiting with torches and pitchforks.

[maxsolomon]

15. because it doesn't need to pass cloture

the ACA was passed using budget reconciliation, this will be passed using the same method.

[onenote]

31. That depends on how the Parliamentarian rules on the question

of whether it has non-budgetary items in it.

[maxsolomon]

33. Save us, Parliamentarian!

McConnell knows how to get this done. He's a crafty old turtle.

[Amishman]

36. The Parliamentarian is Elizabeth MacDonough

But it doesn't matter, the President of the Senate (Pence) can ignore her.

[Va Lefty]

16. Nothing is assured with theses assholes in charge

[Blue_true]

18. I have that concern also. I don't plan to even follow

runup to the vote. I am sure some will be actively attacking Democrat Senators, although there isn't much they can soon the minority other that vote solid against.

[Ms. Toad]

19. Same reason they were sure Clinton would win,

And just like with Clinton, we will be wrong if we continue to engage in hide-our-head-in-the-sanditis (or troll hunting) when anyone expresses concerns here.

[MedusaX]

21. Because KGOP cannot afford for it to pass Senate...

This whole hurry up & vote in the House was designed to establish media coverage of a giant KGOP (House) / Trump win on healthcare.....
For use in 2018 campaigns.....

This would all be pointless if they really intended to push it through the Senate under Reconciliation...

Because KGOP know good & well that the implementation of their CrapCare will not produce favorable results....
Sure as hell don't want to put it into effect too soon or else they can kiss 2018 victories goodbye...

The goal is to continue to milk the healthcare replace/repeal promise for as long as possible...

Without actually ever owning an implemented program that is subject to performance evaluation by affected voters.....

"Our healthcare plan is the greatest plan of all time" is a whole lot easier to sell when no one has ever actually experienced how the plan works firsthand..

Remember.... 45 is a real estate developer.... its all about the Pre Selling of things not yet ready for actual use or even available for inspection.....

Once the contract is signed & the down payment clears the bank...
he could not care any less about what the final outcome is...
by then he has moved on & it is all someone else's problem....

[Freethinker65]

23. Pretty sure you are correct about how Trump sees it

Or how he would have seen it, during his younger more coherent days.

I am still slightly concerned about the Senate however.

[NewRedDawn]

40. The Cowards rigged it even ii it becomes law

that it all will not take effect till after 2018 .

[samnsara]

26. senate just said they wont even vote on it... they have something else in mind...

[workinclasszero]

30. We can not be sure at all

I was sure Hillary would be our President right now and...uh...yeah.

[onenote]

32. There's a good chance what emerges from the Senate will be different

and will have to go back to the House where the repubs will once again the opportunity to fight with each other.

[SummerSnow]

34. The Rethugs will break the law to pass it if they have to. What is stopping them?

[kentuck]

39. I can't think of one Republican that will vote against it??

It will pass. It's not about healthcare - it's about the tax cut.

[babylonsister]

43. Maybe some women, like Susan Collins, but I don't have a whole

lot of faith.

[Thrill]

42. There just isn't enough insane Republicans in the Senate

Especially the ones in states that actually expanded Medicare. They would basically destroy those state budgets.

This is the type of crazy law, that would help Dems win state legislatures.