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Mon May 8, 2017, 11:50 AM

Will Tesla Succeed?

Forget what we think about Elon Musk and his history. No brand new American car manufacturer has started from scratch and succeeded in at least 75 years, maybe more.. (American Motors was a combination of a couple of other companies and did not start from scratch... Nash, Rambler, and Hudson were already established brands) Do you think this company will succeed and stay in business?..I don't know..Just asking..

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Arrow 45 replies Author Time Post
Reply Will Tesla Succeed? (Original post)
Stuart G May 2017 OP
snooper2 May 2017 #1
Stuart G May 2017 #2
NightWatcher May 2017 #3
snooper2 May 2017 #4
longship May 2017 #8
snooper2 May 2017 #14
longship May 2017 #19
Calculating May 2017 #21
EX500rider May 2017 #22
caraher May 2017 #33
TheBlackAdder May 2017 #25
snooper2 May 2017 #30
TheBlackAdder May 2017 #32
JoeStuckInOH May 2017 #39
TheBlackAdder May 2017 #44
Johonny May 2017 #5
Stuart G May 2017 #6
Alex4Martinez May 2017 #9
HughBeaumont May 2017 #7
DrDan May 2017 #12
snooper2 May 2017 #15
HughBeaumont May 2017 #17
LanternWaste May 2017 #20
hunter May 2017 #10
Blue_true May 2017 #23
hunter May 2017 #24
Blue_true May 2017 #45
DrDan May 2017 #11
Calculating May 2017 #13
Massacure May 2017 #35
A HERETIC I AM May 2017 #38
NCTraveler May 2017 #16
Baclava May 2017 #18
True Dough May 2017 #26
Voltaire2 May 2017 #28
underpants May 2017 #27
a kennedy May 2017 #29
Baclava May 2017 #40
a kennedy May 2017 #41
Baclava May 2017 #43
Warren DeMontague May 2017 #31
Zorro May 2017 #34
hunter May 2017 #36
Warren DeMontague May 2017 #37
Quiet_Dem_Mom May 2017 #42

Response to Stuart G (Original post)

Mon May 8, 2017, 11:51 AM

1. only if they can beat the new Dodge Demon in the quarter mile

 

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Response to snooper2 (Reply #1)

Mon May 8, 2017, 11:54 AM

2. I have heard that Tesla's move pretty fast from standing still...

But I don't know much about that aspect of cars. Are Dodge Demons faster? I do not know.. What car is fastest? I don't know that either....

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Response to snooper2 (Reply #1)

Mon May 8, 2017, 11:58 AM

3. You can't drive 840 hp on city streets. You'd need new tires weekly

That being said, I'd love to test a Demon out.

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Response to NightWatcher (Reply #3)

Mon May 8, 2017, 12:01 PM

4. 840 is nothing on the street

 

1600HP MK3 Supra Street Pulls - "The Great White"





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Response to snooper2 (Reply #1)

Mon May 8, 2017, 12:13 PM

8. Because drag racing ability is why people buy cars?



I buy a car that lasts more than a quarter mile. Mine is 22 years old and has over 200,000 miles on the odometer.
BTW, it's a four cylinder Volvo, one of the most reliable cars ever made. Sadly, no longer available.

If I still lived in SoCal, I might go for a Tesla, if I could afford one. Here in rural west Michigan, I wouldn't mind a Prius, although the hybrid tech wouldn't buy me much here in this rural environment with long winters where the Prius's advantages diminish. Still, reliability is a good reason and it is a very good car with a rather stellar reliability record.

Since I am on SS, I will continue to milk my old Volvo.


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Response to longship (Reply #8)

Mon May 8, 2017, 12:44 PM

14. Every stop light is a drag race LOL

 

I'm driving a 120k mile Grand Prix with the bullet proof 3.8L right now since hail totaled my truck and wife got new car first


FYI- This is THE most reliable vehicle ever made...

22RE engine is bulletproof




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Response to snooper2 (Reply #14)

Mon May 8, 2017, 01:45 PM

19. Who needs 3.8 liters?

Who needs more than four cylinders?

You do know that you won't get there any faster than I will, don't you?

This isn't Formula One, you know! Or -- horrors! -- NASCAR. Or, the horror of all horrors of Motorsport, the idiocy of drag racing!

Note that none of those sports are legal on public roadways.

My best to you. Enjoy your fast driving. Just do so safely under controlled conditions.

Upon a visit to San Francisco once I saw a Porshe 911 flipped over on the guardrail between the northbound and southbound interstate. What kind of stupid person drives like that? What kind of stupid person thinks that speed is what driving is about? That more horsepower is better?

I prefer safe driving. No need for any more horsepower than is necessary. I used to own a diesel Rabbit. It had 28 HP. That was enough for me to drive halfway across the country and back every year for quite a few years. I got close to 60 MPG on that vehicle. And I could keep up with interstate speed limits. What more does one want?

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Response to longship (Reply #19)

Mon May 8, 2017, 02:29 PM

21. Some people have fun driving

It's fine if you're not one of them, but don't expect everyone else to feel the same.

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Response to longship (Reply #19)

Mon May 8, 2017, 03:02 PM

22. "Who needs 3.8 liters? Who needs more than four cylinders?"

People who tow large boats or RV's?
People who like to get somewhere in a hurry?
People who enjoy high performance vehicles?

"You do know that you won't get there any faster than I will, don't you?"

Unlikely, if I am taking off faster then you and maintaining a higher avg speed (9-15mph over the speed limit let's say)
I most certainly will get somewhere faster then you, especially the longer the drive.

Say St Pete, Fla to Wash DC, (929m) at 70 mph speed limit aprox 13.5hrs hrs (not including stops-traffic-etc)...do same trip at 85mph, under 11 hrs....so about 3 hours faster....so when I arrive, you'll still be 210 miles away, somewhere in North Carolina.

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Response to EX500rider (Reply #22)

Mon May 8, 2017, 10:50 PM

33. Driving at a safe and legal speed is part of the premise of the comparison

Yes, more power is sometimes necessary and important, as in hauling heavy loads or towing.

But the example about St. Pete to DC wrongly supposes that the difference in the drives is the power of the vehicle, when in fact the chief distinction is the willingness to exceed the legal speed limit for extended periods of time. Put longship in a muscle car and you in a Prius and you'll get the same result for that long drive!

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Response to snooper2 (Reply #1)

Mon May 8, 2017, 06:08 PM

25. If you don't kick someone's ass by the time you hit the speed limit, you've kinda lost the "race."

.


Hopefully, they've fixed the spun mains in the Hemi that will be going into those things.

It's a quick car, passing everything but the pumps and a P-90D.


.

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Response to TheBlackAdder (Reply #25)

Mon May 8, 2017, 08:45 PM

30. leaves starting line at 1.8G , first production car to pull a wheelie

 

0-30 in one second
0-60 in two point three seconds
quarter mile 9.65 seconds at 140MPH


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Response to snooper2 (Reply #30)

Mon May 8, 2017, 10:21 PM

32. The 1968 Dodge Dart and Plymouth Barracuda Lightweights (1500 lbs) could pull wheelies.

.


I think someone from Guinness is missing that little factoid, one I grew up watching as a kid. Oh, why don't they show many photos of them pulling wheelies, because the cars came equiped with wheelie bars as standard equipment.

http://www.streetmusclemag.com/features/car-features/muscle-cars-you-should-know-1968-dodge-hemi-dart-super-stock/


Also, Tesla Racing has the P100D down to 0-60 in two seconds flat by removing the frunk.


Here's the Demon link.

http://www.streetmusclemag.com/news/first-look-2018-dodge-challenger-srt-demon-pulls-the-wheels/

.

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Response to TheBlackAdder (Reply #32)

Tue May 9, 2017, 11:24 AM

39. Those were mid-500HP stock with a bit of tuning and still ran mid-10's in stock form, I believe.

 

A) Both the Dart and Cuda super stocks were sent out to Hurst for all the good bits to be built/added.
B) After the cars left Hurst, they were NOT street legal.

I believe Dodge's claim is that the new Demons are the first street-legal production car that can do a wheelie. The rear "drag" tries that come on the Demon are actually street legal tires. And, off the dealership floor, the thing is 840HP and runs 1/4 miles in the high 9 second range. Considering the Dodge Demon is a street legal car (in factory configuration) that literally shits on the dart/cuda super stocks ... That's Remarkable.

A number of car manufacturer's have cars sent out to performance shops for specialty models. I'm unaware if Dodge is outsourcing the Demon. And even if street legal, I'm not sure you can consider any of the Roush, Buschur, Hurst, Lingenfelter, Saleen... or any other botique after-manufactured cars to be "Production".


Another thing to consider... the new Demons are automatic-only transmission. Meaning most anyone can drive one VERY fast with little-to-no experience.

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Response to JoeStuckInOH (Reply #39)

Tue May 9, 2017, 01:26 PM

44. Good points.

.


Also, worth noting is that the newer automatics shift faster than humanly possible.

Another perk is that there won't be as many blown transmissions from people misshifting or the loss of control when people try to concentrate on shifting when accellerating to Warp Factor 2.


.

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Response to Stuart G (Original post)

Mon May 8, 2017, 12:04 PM

5. Only if it becomes "more" than just a car company

the idea it will be a battery, energy storage, solar power etc... company is what the stock price is all about. Musk has buttered up the new administration, but Trump's energy policy will make it harder for Tesla to survive until alternative power is the only option...

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Response to Johonny (Reply #5)

Mon May 8, 2017, 12:08 PM

6. Thank You for your insitefull answer..

I wish I knew more about this ....

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Response to Stuart G (Reply #6)

Mon May 8, 2017, 12:18 PM

9. Tesla will survive and thrive because it makes sense, even to the investment class

They've already transformed the industry-- their first model, the roadster, was the first modern successful fully electric car. Toyota and GM deliberately undersold their EVs but Tesla proved the concept and paved the way.

Credit is due to GM for the Volt, I own one, and Obama too (thanks Obama!), but Tesla made it happen and only 10 years ago!

Try to watch "Revenge of the Electric Car".

Now that Musk has created a world where there are literally dozens of makers of EVs and battery technology is only getting better and better and cheaper, expect $18,000 EVs, without a subsidy, very soon. I can promise you that but won't detail it here.

And on to more great things, Musk is making the concept of home energy storage a reality.
The Powerwall home energy storage system is a game changer.

Everybody will soon be paying different rates for their power depending on time of use or time of day (TOU or TOD) and with a powerwall you can charge up at night when rates are low and uses your cheap power during peak hours.

It's brilliant and it's green to help utility companies use greener sources.

Ask me anything about energy. It's what I do and I just completed four post-grad courses at Stanford on energy storage, smart grid, photovoltaics, and energy and behavior.

Cheers!

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Response to Stuart G (Original post)

Mon May 8, 2017, 12:10 PM

7. $35,000 is still out of the price range of a great deal of Americans.

Their other more efficient models remain rich man's toys.

So unless their prices come down, the jury's still out . . .

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Response to HughBeaumont (Reply #7)

Mon May 8, 2017, 12:22 PM

12. 375,000 on waiting list for new Tesla 3

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Response to HughBeaumont (Reply #7)

Mon May 8, 2017, 12:51 PM

15. 35K is becoming cheap for a new car these days

 

they want 35K for a fucking Kia Optima LOL





$34,980
MSRP $37,480
Price based on
$2500 Cash Back
View details and other offers

Mileage 10
Body Style Sedan
Drive Type 2 wheel drive - front
Engine 4 Cylinder Turbo
Transmission 6 Speed Shiftable Automatic
Fuel Gasoline
MPG 22 City / 31 Highway
Stock # 170791
VIN 5XXGV4L27HG170791
ATC Car ID AT-1B2AC85B

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Response to snooper2 (Reply #15)

Mon May 8, 2017, 01:06 PM

17. I was able to get away with $14,900 on a new 2016 Cruze last year.

MSRP was 19,900. Thanks to a good down payment and GM discounts, though . . .

I probably COULD swing $35,000 if I made twice as much as I make now, had a little more in retirement savings and LTV, but not when I can pay $14.9k.

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Response to HughBeaumont (Reply #7)

Mon May 8, 2017, 01:48 PM

20. Much as was said of both Apple and PC computers in 1982.

Much as was said of both Apple and PC computers in 1982.

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Response to Stuart G (Original post)

Mon May 8, 2017, 12:19 PM

10. Selling shiny toys to affluent people isn't a bad business plan.

Look at Apple.

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Response to hunter (Reply #10)

Mon May 8, 2017, 03:08 PM

23. Many of your fellow DU members own iPhones.

Owning one doesn't make us elitist. My iPhone has proven to be the most adaptable electronic device that I have ever owned.

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Response to Blue_true (Reply #23)

Mon May 8, 2017, 06:01 PM

24. The most adaptable electronic device I've ever owned is a $35 Raspberry Pi.

https://www.raspberrypi.org

It emulates my old eight and sixteen bit computers very well.

My desktop computer and flip phone were literally other people's e-waste and my laptop is a base model chromebook.

I'm a Linux guy.

Our local high schools give chromebooks to students who don't have better, and most of the teachers love their chromebooks. Education software is very good and kids now "hand in" most of their work electronically.

In my daily experiences iPhones are not ordinary. My level of cell phone "ordinary" is a typical no-contract "smart" phone that costs $40 with plans as low as $7 a month.

The State of California offers Lifeline rates for either landlines or cell phones. I don't qualify for that but many people do.

Those are the communities I live in; internet computer hackers and underpaid and underappreciated working class people.

I suppose I could afford something made by Apple but nothing they make has ever appealed to me.

If somebody ever gave me a Tesla or an iPhone I'd give it away as fast as I could to someone who'd appreciate it, possibly because I'm as prone to tinkering and violating warranties as I am to misplacing things, or hanging out in rougher places where things get stolen.

That's not to say I don't have any habits of affluence. My wife and I eat very well, our dogs eat very well, and we appreciate good coffee wine, and beer; not the overly expensive sorts, but not regularly Bud or Coors Light either.

I don't suppose there's anything wrong about some forms of elitism so long as you remember that under slightly different circumstances the homeless person on the corner or the working person with a forty dollar phone could be you, and act accordingly. And rich or poor, measuring one's own self worth by one's possessions is always a bad idea.

Yep, I recognize I can be an obnoxious Linux evangelist and pedantic moralist...


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Response to hunter (Reply #24)

Tue May 9, 2017, 01:54 PM

45. I am really not a luxury type of person, just really like my iPhone's utility.

I have a windows based laptop, but use that only for tech based stuff related to my work, like CAD design for new equipment classes. I am currently working on a project that combines key features from several types of semiconductor equipment. But for general everyday use, you will only take my iPhone out of my cold, dead hands. 🤓

Honestly, I never want to own a luxury vehicle, the quality and utility of less expensive stuff is good enough. Never been an alcohol drinker, so I would not drink liquor of any price.

I am ok with you preaching about Linux based systems, people are best when they use tech tools that they are comfortable with.

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Response to Stuart G (Original post)

Mon May 8, 2017, 12:21 PM

11. 375,000 on waiting list for the new Tesla 3 - I'd say they have a GREAT chance

for success

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Response to Stuart G (Original post)

Mon May 8, 2017, 12:28 PM

13. Only if they start making profits

Right now they're losing thousands on every car which goes out the door. More sales only means more losses. At some point they will NEED to start making profit or their company is gonna go down in flames. On their last earnings report they had DOUBLE the expected losses, and still their stock goes up. Just seems like a classic case of 'irrational exuberance' to me. People are investing in the company not because of sound financials and profits, but because they want to see their dream come true. Personally I believe this story will end in countless broken dreams and financial ruin for many.

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Response to Calculating (Reply #13)

Mon May 8, 2017, 11:16 PM

35. Tesla does not lose thousands of dollars on every car sold.

From their 8-k SEC report filed on May 3, in the first three months of this year they took in $2,035,060,000 selling vehicles but spent $1,496,649,000 to produce them. Throw in their other lines of business, and their gross profit was $667,946,000.

Tesla's issue is that their other operating expenses of $925,495,000 exceed their gross profit. Of those expenses, $322,040,000 are related to research and development. Presumably most of that R&D is dedicated to ramping up production and development of their new Model 3. A lot of people are betting Tesla will profitably produce those Model 3's before they run out of cash, but that is certainly not guaranteed.


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Response to Massacure (Reply #35)

Tue May 9, 2017, 03:31 AM

38. They have a pickup and a heavy truck in the pipeline

"Presumably most of that R&D is dedicated to ramping up production and development of their new Model 3"


Or Musk is spending the money on developing the P/U and Semi;

http://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-says-a-tesla-semi-and-tesla-pickup-are-actual-1794302568

I'm a shareholder, so I am probably a bit biased, but I think the guy is pretty smart and his firm has a LONG way to go.

Look for him to either build or buy and refurb a second assembly plant in the midwest or east in the next two years.

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Response to Stuart G (Original post)

Mon May 8, 2017, 12:55 PM

16. They aren't like any car manufacturer in America.

 

They are very different. More along the lines of a company like Honda, not that their diversification is similar.

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Response to Stuart G (Original post)

Mon May 8, 2017, 01:07 PM

18. I dunno, others are coming out with electrics, not to mention the huge field of hybrid competitors

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Response to Baclava (Reply #18)

Mon May 8, 2017, 06:16 PM

26. Check out these guys...

Not saying they're going to eat Tesla's lunch, but this model impresses the hell out of me (don't ask me the price point, I'm not in the market anyway). Fun to watch though.

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Response to True Dough (Reply #26)

Mon May 8, 2017, 06:44 PM

28. They haven't managed anything other than prototypes

they are about 10 years behind Tesla. Of course they can use Tesla components- in fact that they probably will - to get to market, which is part of the reason why Tesla may be in a unique position.

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Response to Stuart G (Original post)

Mon May 8, 2017, 06:20 PM

27. Yes

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Response to Stuart G (Original post)

Mon May 8, 2017, 08:10 PM

29. I JUST WANT A TOTALLY ELECTRIC CAR.......

sorry for yelling........and the tesla is one good looking car.

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Response to a kennedy (Reply #29)

Tue May 9, 2017, 11:42 AM

40. ...and how much are you willing to pay for one? Tesla Model S - MSRP - $68,000

more electrics are coming out in the $30-40K range, like the Tesla Model 3


BMW i3

Mercedes-Benz B-class Electric Drive

Chevy Bolt EV

Nissan Leaf

Ford Focus Electric

and more

http://www.caranddriver.com/best-hybrid-electric-cars

-----------------

Bottom line on electrics, bigger batteries = greater range = more money

Want used?

Pre-owned Tesla Model S - cheapest still over $50,000

https://www.tesla.com/preowned

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Response to Baclava (Reply #40)

Tue May 9, 2017, 11:44 AM

41. I know they are terribly expensive........I can dream can't I? eom

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Response to a kennedy (Reply #41)

Tue May 9, 2017, 01:07 PM

43. You could get 3 used Toyota Prius hybrids for the cost of one new electric with only a 100 mi range

I am looking into a hybrid right now - all electrics are still WAY too expensive for what you get.


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Response to Stuart G (Original post)

Mon May 8, 2017, 09:28 PM

31. How many private companies have built reusable rockets that land themselves?

I wouldnt underestimate Elon Musk.

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Response to Warren DeMontague (Reply #31)

Mon May 8, 2017, 11:00 PM

34. You are absolutely correct

Watching the Falcon 9 first stage return to the pad was absolutely awe-inspiring.



I have no doubts on Tesla's future viability.

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Response to Zorro (Reply #34)

Tue May 9, 2017, 12:57 AM

36. That's the stuff of classic '30s, '40s, and '50s science fiction.

It really is amazing.

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Response to Zorro (Reply #34)

Tue May 9, 2017, 02:04 AM

37. Seriously. Chills.

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Response to Stuart G (Original post)

Tue May 9, 2017, 11:54 AM

42. After NV dropped $1.3 B (as in BILLION) incentives on them?

Yea, I hope so. After state employees stopped getting increases and COLAs, forced to go on high-premium HMO or high-deductible health insurance, merit freezes, furloughs, etc. It's good to see that we had the funds to help a billionaire.

https://www.theverge.com/2016/2/8/10937076/tesla-gigafactory-battery-factory-nevada-tax-deal-elon-musk

Nevada ultimately won the factory deal, but at a cost that has proven controversial: the state offered an incentives package that was the largest in Nevada history, and became one of the 15 largest nationally. Over the next 20 years, Tesla could take in nearly $1.3 billion in tax benefits for building its Gigafactory in Nevada, according to projections from the state, as hires are made for the factory locally and from around the country. Assuming Tesla meets its obligations under the deal, it will spend 20 years free from sales tax, and 10 years free from property tax, while it receives millions of dollars more in tax credits.


Ditto for Faraday. And Switch. And for the soon-to-be Las Vegas Raiders.

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