Rising Rents in a Housing Price Depression
Okay... from 1996 to 2006 we had a huge increase in the price of houses. The (inevitable) collapse of housing prices started a vicious down-turn in the economy. Housing prices have not recovered, despite record low nominal mortgage rates.
And apartment rents are currently rising at the fastest pace since the height of the housing bubble.
Why? A few reasons.
During the housing bubble we reached a crazy unsustainable price-to-rent ratio of almost two to one. When the down-turn started most (honest) analysts saw that one way or another the price-to-rent ratio would have to return to historically normal levels.
During the worst of the down-turn (2008-2010) rents were declining along with everything else. Suddenly unemployed people get a room-mate, move in with family, give up an apartment for a space in a group house. Kids are slower to move out of their parents' place. There was a sharp decrease in demand for housing in general.
Since real-estate prices and rent had to get back into line, dropping rents meant housing prices would have to chase rents that much further down to return to parity. There could be no housing price recovery until rents stabilized.
With some recovery we see increased demand for housing, but that demand is centered in renting. Many people lack the means to think about buying a house and must rent. Many people who could buy a house choose not to because it is now understood, culturally, to have a downside risk.
Renting is more valuable than it used to be. In a world where real estate prices go up, up, up the renter loses out on the investment value of the property. If the apartment building or rented home doubles in value the renter gains nothing from that. There is a relative penalty for renting. But in a world where real estate prices go down, down, down there is a bonus for renting. You get a roof over your head without taking on the risk of the property declining in value.
And the housing bubble has had the perverse effect of taking a lot of housing off the market. A big chunk of housing is sitting vacant awaiting foreclosure, distressed sale, whatever. Lots of empty houses while the people who lost those houses are now added to the rental market! A double whammy... increased demand, reduced supply.
And the housing bubble diverted a disproportionate amount of housing construction to single-family homes, versus apartment houses, so there is not the same sort of glut of rental units.
Put it all together and rents are rising, even in a nation with a relative glut in housing.
Imagine a rural town in the great depression with one apartment building. Times are so tough that everyone loses heir farm to the bank. Even though the whole local real-estate economy has collapsed, there is suddenly great new demand for the few apartments. And even if a family thrown off their farm leaves town they will be renting wherever they end up. They surely don't have the resources to buy another farm any time soon.
Since the overall housing market cannot stabilize until the price-to-rent ratio is back in line, rising rents are a hopeful sign for property prices. (Rising rents help close the gap, just as falling home prices do. At some point high rents make ownership, which is currently not attractive, more desirable.)
But it sucks for renters, of course.
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