New Democratic polling shows House Republicans in danger, but it's still way, way early

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

-01, ME-02, MI-06, NV-02: A quartet of polls in four GOP-held House districts pitting Republican incumbents against generic Democratic opponents finds good news for Team Blue—but as ever with generic polling, the data must be treated cautiously. More on that in a minute; first, to the numbers, which come from two different pollsters (Clarity Campaign Labs and Public Policy Polling) working for two different pro-Democratic organizations (Patriot Majority USA and Save My Care, respectively). The first three polls are all Clarity/Patriot Majority; 2016 president results are in brackets:

IA-01: Rod Blum (R): 32, "Democratic challenger": 47 [Trump 49-45]

ME-02: Bruce Poliquin (R): 43, "Democratic challenger": 44 [Trump 51-41]

MI-06: Fred Upton (R): 37, "Democratic challenger": 41 [Trump 51-43]

NV-02: Mark Amodei (R): 46, "Democratic opponent": 45 [Trump 52-40]

All of these districts feature Republicans who voted to repeal Obamacare, though Clarity's memo doesn't explain why these particular races were chosen. As you can see, these are all districts Trump won, and all of them also moved to the right last year. Indeed, Obama had carried both Iowa's 1st and Maine's 2nd, while he lost Michigan's 6th by just a point. As such, they're also the sort of districts that, if there's a Trump backlash, could move back in the other direction.

And that's what makes Nevada's 2nd the most interesting of the bunch. This is an enormous, conservative, and heavily rural district that encompasses most of the state—including all of the so-called "cow counties"—where Democrats have always struggled to compete. What's more, Amodei himself has made it sound like he's strongly considering retirement. If this is a 1-point race with him, it could be even more compelling without him.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/5/11/1661404/-New-Democratic-polling-shows-House-Republicans-in-danger-but-it-s-still-way-way-early