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louis c

(8,652 posts)
Tue Jun 13, 2017, 06:24 AM Jun 2017

What will it take for Trump's base to abandon him?

I estimate that Trump's base is around 36%. That's varying degrees of support. So, I'm not talking about every single Trump supporter abandoning him, but about a third. What would it take for Trump to drop another 12 points to say, something like 24%?

Nothing in the Russia investigation will substantially dislodge that great a number. I contend it's the economy that will take that third of his supporters away. Here's my theory.

If the stock market retreats by 2,000 to 3,000 points, that would start the movement. If the GDP has 2 consecutive tepid or negative quarters. If the monthly job numbers are less than 100,000 for 2 or 3 months. If these things happen, and the Trump supporters see no improvement in their lives or increase in good job opportunities, that will mark the end of his Presidency.

What you will see are Republicans starting to say that Trump was never a Republican. They will abandon him and set the stage for a narrative that Trump is really an independent, big Government type who "stole" the Republican nomination.

At this point, Trump will be in the mid-20's and he will resign.

Well, anyway, that's my theory for today.

28 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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What will it take for Trump's base to abandon him? (Original Post) louis c Jun 2017 OP
Sinking economy is a start AlexSFCA Jun 2017 #1
Nothing. In a word. Trump is their guy, their TV star. They're fans. Not even being sent WinkyDink Jun 2017 #2
Trump's base hates Republicans Kaleva Jun 2017 #3
There are a few things he could do... Mike Nelson Jun 2017 #4
The proverbial political Poison Pill. no_hypocrisy Jun 2017 #6
Part of this 36% are traditional Republicans louis c Jun 2017 #11
Some of those crazies ... LenaBaby61 Jun 2017 #5
When the economy starts to decline, which is inevitable. GreenEyedLefty Jun 2017 #7
Ignore his base, and concentrate on the percentage above his base to the full Rep voter base. Trump OnDoutside Jun 2017 #8
I agree. My theory is what it will take to get to that 20% louis c Jun 2017 #13
Trump is not an ideology. Trump is division. Trump is bitterness. Trump is chaos. Trust Buster Jun 2017 #9
The quetion is "how large is his base?" louis c Jun 2017 #19
Very good points Louis C. Trust Buster Jun 2017 #22
If they found out that he supported Obama Orrex Jun 2017 #10
If he started making decisions that bpositive Jun 2017 #12
If the stock market crashes, Trump will lose the support of wealthy Republicans. yardwork Jun 2017 #14
Having to learn Turbineguy Jun 2017 #15
having his budget proposal passed would put a dent in his base - DrDan Jun 2017 #16
I think a "x" percentage of these voters want chaos. They would be just as happy if RKP5637 Jun 2017 #17
He'd Have To RobinA Jun 2017 #18
if he starts supporting dreamer, black lives matter, refugees from syria JI7 Jun 2017 #20
They won't. nt LaydeeBug Jun 2017 #21
Do they support HIM, or do they just HATE DEMOCRATS? Therefore... NurseJackie Jun 2017 #23
If he pisses off the Mercers and fires Bannuts duncang Jun 2017 #24
When the nursing home calls and says Grandma can't stay there anymore, that will get their Vinca Jun 2017 #25
Actually, forget them! We outnumber them almost everywhere it counts. Get the hell out and VOTE!! nikibatts Jun 2017 #26
Funeral.... Historic NY Jun 2017 #27
This country exists in two simultaneous realities now. VOX Jun 2017 #28

AlexSFCA

(6,137 posts)
1. Sinking economy is a start
Tue Jun 13, 2017, 06:28 AM
Jun 2017

because it will turn fox news and right wing media against trump. They did it to bush too at the onset of great recession.

 

WinkyDink

(51,311 posts)
2. Nothing. In a word. Trump is their guy, their TV star. They're fans. Not even being sent
Tue Jun 13, 2017, 06:30 AM
Jun 2017

to die in an illegal war broke the hard-core support of Nixon (Liberals went after LBJ) nor of Bush. Indeed, Dubya is now looked upon fondly as some national nephew.

Mike Nelson

(9,903 posts)
4. There are a few things he could do...
Tue Jun 13, 2017, 06:35 AM
Jun 2017

...bomb US churches.
...make a live, gay sex video with an underage male.
...show abortions are bad by performing one in a TV special.

If he resigns, Pence will team up with Ryan & McConnell to legislate the end of the FDR era USA.

 

louis c

(8,652 posts)
11. Part of this 36% are traditional Republicans
Tue Jun 13, 2017, 07:07 AM
Jun 2017

All 36% do not hate Republicans. My point is that his base is not one third of the American electorate, but one quarter.

LenaBaby61

(6,965 posts)
5. Some of those crazies ...
Tue Jun 13, 2017, 06:40 AM
Jun 2017

Will NEVER leave him unfortunately louis c, to the point that they could lose their health care, their homes, their way of lives, and they'll STILL stick with that mentally-deteriorating, treasonous, racist POS

I have to admit though, that I AM seeing some erosion that I didn't think I'd see.

I mean, wow

GreenEyedLefty

(2,073 posts)
7. When the economy starts to decline, which is inevitable.
Tue Jun 13, 2017, 06:42 AM
Jun 2017

Off the top of my head.... Other countries have begun taking their business elsewhere. International tourism is going to take a hit. It takes time to really see the effects of Trump's policies. Trump is so stupid, he thinks the economy riding on the gas Obama put in the tank is all his own doing. Sooner or later the tank is going to be empty and there won't be anything to put in it.

OnDoutside

(19,908 posts)
8. Ignore his base, and concentrate on the percentage above his base to the full Rep voter base. Trump
Tue Jun 13, 2017, 06:43 AM
Jun 2017

has nowhere near 36% as his base, it's probably closer to 20%. The rest will vote for whoever the Republican candidate is. That's the group that have to be worked on, because that will scare the crap out of the everyday Republican congressman.

 

louis c

(8,652 posts)
13. I agree. My theory is what it will take to get to that 20%
Tue Jun 13, 2017, 07:09 AM
Jun 2017

What will it take for Trump to go from 36% (Gallup's numbers) tp the 20% or that we both agree is his real base.

 

Trust Buster

(7,299 posts)
9. Trump is not an ideology. Trump is division. Trump is bitterness. Trump is chaos.
Tue Jun 13, 2017, 06:51 AM
Jun 2017

There is nothing that Trump has done that deviates from that. His base will remain with him as long as he behaves like this.

 

louis c

(8,652 posts)
19. The quetion is "how large is his base?"
Wed Jun 14, 2017, 07:06 AM
Jun 2017

It certainly is not 46%. In that number are optimistic Republicans who think they can use his pen to pass long awaited conservative initiatives.

At 36%, there are people who "tolerate Trump" in hopes that long lost manufacturing and coal mining jobs will come back. How long will they wait? Hence, the economic downturn will dislodge these traditional Democratic voters in the mid-West that handed the election to Trump. They will peel away when they lose hope. They probably will not come back to us, but will drop out and increase their bitterness against the system.

I believe Trump's true base, people who will not leave him no matter what, is at about 24%. About a quarter of the electorate. But no one can govern at an approval rate of 24%.

Orrex

(63,086 posts)
10. If they found out that he supported Obama
Tue Jun 13, 2017, 06:55 AM
Jun 2017

Or that he's in favor of women's freedom of reproductive choice.

bpositive

(423 posts)
12. If he started making decisions that
Tue Jun 13, 2017, 07:08 AM
Jun 2017

Were in the best interest to the country and its citizens (US not Russia 😃 . if he started acting like a grown up. If the wizard gave him a functional brain and he used it? I think any or all of these things would change the tide of the deplorables opinion of him and his supporters would start peeling off.

yardwork

(61,420 posts)
14. If the stock market crashes, Trump will lose the support of wealthy Republicans.
Tue Jun 13, 2017, 07:11 AM
Jun 2017

People think the core base of support for Trump comes from poor rural whites (and some of them are true believers), but much of Trump's base, I believe, are upper income conservative Republicans. They continue to support him because they think he'll cut taxes and business regulations.

Their gamble is going to fail. Eventually Wall Street is going to freak out.

I agree that they'll attempt to cast Trump as a Democrat. We need to resist that.

I disagree that he'll resign. He will never resign.

RKP5637

(67,032 posts)
17. I think a "x" percentage of these voters want chaos. They would be just as happy if
Tue Jun 13, 2017, 07:46 AM
Jun 2017

the US fell apart, especially its institutions. Some feel the US has never served them well. They will stay with him whatever he does. Also, a fair portion of the US is unstable and wacky, plus religious nuts, the whole list. Probably a lot of them are his supporters too. Additionally, I think some of his supporters don't even pay attention to anything he does. They just voted. And, a portion likely just see the whole thing as a reality tv show. Given all that, my thought is it would only be financial, that would take away the wealthy, perhaps.

RobinA

(9,878 posts)
18. He'd Have To
Tue Jun 13, 2017, 08:16 AM
Jun 2017

wake up one morning as a female, an African-American, or both.

So in other words, not going to happen.

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
23. Do they support HIM, or do they just HATE DEMOCRATS? Therefore...
Wed Jun 14, 2017, 07:24 AM
Jun 2017

... by default, and without thought their hatred of us manifests itself as "support" (of sorts) for Trump.

They're all sick fucks.

duncang

(1,907 posts)
24. If he pisses off the Mercers and fires Bannuts
Wed Jun 14, 2017, 07:25 AM
Jun 2017

If bannon were to be sacked I think the mercers would turn against him. Between britefart. the money the mercers have spent on bots, etc. He wouldn't have a base. All it would take would be a few articles and the bot echo chamber saying he was really a Muslim democrat and the sheeple would follow.

Vinca

(50,172 posts)
25. When the nursing home calls and says Grandma can't stay there anymore, that will get their
Wed Jun 14, 2017, 07:30 AM
Jun 2017

attention. When their disability payment is discontinued, they will notice. When the coal mine, which recently opened for its symbolic value, closes, they will look to their lord and savior Donald J. Trump. And he won't be there for them. The base will only abandon him when it hits them personally. And it will.

VOX

(22,976 posts)
28. This country exists in two simultaneous realities now.
Wed Jun 14, 2017, 07:52 AM
Jun 2017

There is nothing anyone in *this* reality can do-- including the Democratic Party, progressives, Barack, Hillary, Bernie, Blue States, liberals, etc., etc.--the reality wherein the Trump administration is probably breaking numerous laws simultaneously. Where women's rights are being destroyed, healthcare is being destroyed, science is being destroyed, education is being destroyed.

In the other reality (under the spell of #45 due to the nonstop, usual echo chamber)-- they are FINE with #45. They LOVE this guy.

Why they do, I haven't the slightest idea. Every day I say the same thing: We were hacked by a hostile foreign power-- why is this unprecedented attack go unaddressed, not even so much as a mention by #45's people. And his supporters are OKAY with that??? But that's MY reality-- THEIR reality is that their mouthpiece and figurehead is getting bopped around by the lib'rul media generated by the Obama-led "deep state." They don't see a Russian attack; rather, they see their favorite reality-show celebrity being picked on.

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