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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhat will it take for Trump's base to abandon him?
I estimate that Trump's base is around 36%. That's varying degrees of support. So, I'm not talking about every single Trump supporter abandoning him, but about a third. What would it take for Trump to drop another 12 points to say, something like 24%?
Nothing in the Russia investigation will substantially dislodge that great a number. I contend it's the economy that will take that third of his supporters away. Here's my theory.
If the stock market retreats by 2,000 to 3,000 points, that would start the movement. If the GDP has 2 consecutive tepid or negative quarters. If the monthly job numbers are less than 100,000 for 2 or 3 months. If these things happen, and the Trump supporters see no improvement in their lives or increase in good job opportunities, that will mark the end of his Presidency.
What you will see are Republicans starting to say that Trump was never a Republican. They will abandon him and set the stage for a narrative that Trump is really an independent, big Government type who "stole" the Republican nomination.
At this point, Trump will be in the mid-20's and he will resign.
Well, anyway, that's my theory for today.
AlexSFCA
(6,137 posts)because it will turn fox news and right wing media against trump. They did it to bush too at the onset of great recession.
WinkyDink
(51,311 posts)to die in an illegal war broke the hard-core support of Nixon (Liberals went after LBJ) nor of Bush. Indeed, Dubya is now looked upon fondly as some national nephew.
Kaleva
(36,147 posts)Mike Nelson
(9,903 posts)...bomb US churches.
...make a live, gay sex video with an underage male.
...show abortions are bad by performing one in a TV special.
If he resigns, Pence will team up with Ryan & McConnell to legislate the end of the FDR era USA.
no_hypocrisy
(45,786 posts)We're screwed until 2019.
louis c
(8,652 posts)All 36% do not hate Republicans. My point is that his base is not one third of the American electorate, but one quarter.
LenaBaby61
(6,965 posts)Will NEVER leave him unfortunately louis c, to the point that they could lose their health care, their homes, their way of lives, and they'll STILL stick with that mentally-deteriorating, treasonous, racist POS
I have to admit though, that I AM seeing some erosion that I didn't think I'd see.
I mean, wow
GreenEyedLefty
(2,073 posts)Off the top of my head.... Other countries have begun taking their business elsewhere. International tourism is going to take a hit. It takes time to really see the effects of Trump's policies. Trump is so stupid, he thinks the economy riding on the gas Obama put in the tank is all his own doing. Sooner or later the tank is going to be empty and there won't be anything to put in it.
OnDoutside
(19,908 posts)has nowhere near 36% as his base, it's probably closer to 20%. The rest will vote for whoever the Republican candidate is. That's the group that have to be worked on, because that will scare the crap out of the everyday Republican congressman.
louis c
(8,652 posts)What will it take for Trump to go from 36% (Gallup's numbers) tp the 20% or that we both agree is his real base.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)There is nothing that Trump has done that deviates from that. His base will remain with him as long as he behaves like this.
louis c
(8,652 posts)It certainly is not 46%. In that number are optimistic Republicans who think they can use his pen to pass long awaited conservative initiatives.
At 36%, there are people who "tolerate Trump" in hopes that long lost manufacturing and coal mining jobs will come back. How long will they wait? Hence, the economic downturn will dislodge these traditional Democratic voters in the mid-West that handed the election to Trump. They will peel away when they lose hope. They probably will not come back to us, but will drop out and increase their bitterness against the system.
I believe Trump's true base, people who will not leave him no matter what, is at about 24%. About a quarter of the electorate. But no one can govern at an approval rate of 24%.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)Orrex
(63,086 posts)Or that he's in favor of women's freedom of reproductive choice.
bpositive
(423 posts)Were in the best interest to the country and its citizens (US not Russia 😃 . if he started acting like a grown up. If the wizard gave him a functional brain and he used it? I think any or all of these things would change the tide of the deplorables opinion of him and his supporters would start peeling off.
yardwork
(61,420 posts)People think the core base of support for Trump comes from poor rural whites (and some of them are true believers), but much of Trump's base, I believe, are upper income conservative Republicans. They continue to support him because they think he'll cut taxes and business regulations.
Their gamble is going to fail. Eventually Wall Street is going to freak out.
I agree that they'll attempt to cast Trump as a Democrat. We need to resist that.
I disagree that he'll resign. He will never resign.
Turbineguy
(37,212 posts)to speak, read and write Russian.
OK, having to learn to read and write.
DrDan
(20,411 posts)he will never resign
RKP5637
(67,032 posts)the US fell apart, especially its institutions. Some feel the US has never served them well. They will stay with him whatever he does. Also, a fair portion of the US is unstable and wacky, plus religious nuts, the whole list. Probably a lot of them are his supporters too. Additionally, I think some of his supporters don't even pay attention to anything he does. They just voted. And, a portion likely just see the whole thing as a reality tv show. Given all that, my thought is it would only be financial, that would take away the wealthy, perhaps.
RobinA
(9,878 posts)wake up one morning as a female, an African-American, or both.
So in other words, not going to happen.
JI7
(89,182 posts)LaydeeBug
(10,291 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)... by default, and without thought their hatred of us manifests itself as "support" (of sorts) for Trump.
They're all sick fucks.
duncang
(1,907 posts)If bannon were to be sacked I think the mercers would turn against him. Between britefart. the money the mercers have spent on bots, etc. He wouldn't have a base. All it would take would be a few articles and the bot echo chamber saying he was really a Muslim democrat and the sheeple would follow.
Vinca
(50,172 posts)attention. When their disability payment is discontinued, they will notice. When the coal mine, which recently opened for its symbolic value, closes, they will look to their lord and savior Donald J. Trump. And he won't be there for them. The base will only abandon him when it hits them personally. And it will.
nikibatts
(2,198 posts)Historic NY
(37,449 posts)at this point.
VOX
(22,976 posts)There is nothing anyone in *this* reality can do-- including the Democratic Party, progressives, Barack, Hillary, Bernie, Blue States, liberals, etc., etc.--the reality wherein the Trump administration is probably breaking numerous laws simultaneously. Where women's rights are being destroyed, healthcare is being destroyed, science is being destroyed, education is being destroyed.
In the other reality (under the spell of #45 due to the nonstop, usual echo chamber)-- they are FINE with #45. They LOVE this guy.
Why they do, I haven't the slightest idea. Every day I say the same thing: We were hacked by a hostile foreign power-- why is this unprecedented attack go unaddressed, not even so much as a mention by #45's people. And his supporters are OKAY with that??? But that's MY reality-- THEIR reality is that their mouthpiece and figurehead is getting bopped around by the lib'rul media generated by the Obama-led "deep state." They don't see a Russian attack; rather, they see their favorite reality-show celebrity being picked on.