Dems outperformed partisan lean of their districts by an average of 8-pts in the past 5 elections

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Kyle Griffin? @kylegriffin1

Cook Political: Dems outperformed partisan lean of their districts by an average of 8-pts in the past 5 elections http://cookpolitical.com/story/10391


____ First and foremost, just one state over, unheralded Democratic tax expert Archie Parnell - who ran on a similarly conciliatory, post-partisan message but generated a tiny fraction of the hype Ossoff did—shockingly came within three points of Republican Ralph Norman in a district President Trump carried by 18 points last November (Ossoff came within four points in a district Trump carried by one).

... The bad news for Republicans is that they can't count on this type of high turnout across the board in November 2018. In fact, it would be shocking if any House race drew a third of the $55 million spent on the GA-06 special election. And that means Democrats' enthusiasm edge should be wider in most places than it was in GA-06.

Second, overhyped special elections can often be lagging—rather than leading—indicators. In June 2006, Republicans retained a San Diego seat in a very expensive special election five months before losing the House. In May 2010, Democrats held an ancestrally Democratic seat in southwestern Pennsylvania six months before losing their majority. For a moment, tradition held. Today, both those seats are represented by the opposite party.

Third, believe it or not, GA-06 wasn't the only special election held this year. Although it's true Democrats have agonizingly yet to capture a red district, they have outperformed their "generic" share of the vote significantly in every contest. Measured against the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI), Democrats have outperformed the partisan lean of their districts by an average of eight points in the past five elections:

[Bleacher Creature]

1. Please don't bring up actual facts.

We're supposed to be wallowing in self pity and defeatism today. Didn't you get the memo?

[librechik]

2. Doesn't it bother anyone else that the GOP gerrymandered and cheated the Dems

out of the majority for over a decade now? All I get is "Shut up,you'll make us look crazy" whenever I bring up the subject.

BTW, GA-06 uses all electronic voting with no paper backup.

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3. we can't win big without addressing all of the means of voter suppression

...which have been devastatingly successful for republican candidates.

[eleny]

4. And I can't find a mention of Handel using Cross Check as GA's SOS

So if someone went to the polls and got a provisional ballot because they got purged can we tell how many provisionals were filled in and submitted?

I found one article about a problem with the machines in one area of GA-6. The problem got fixed but voting was extended and provisional ballots were offered. The article said they would be counted on Monday. Here's the article
http://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/262738488-story

But what I want to know is how many provisional ballots were handed out altogether in the District, how many were completed and turned, when will they be counted and can they be examined?

Btw, I don't think your crazy. It's odd that gerrymandering and the purging of the voter rolls isn't a huge issue discussed here at DU. It pops up from time to time but almost absent today.

P.S. Hi from Lakewood, CO!

[Gothmog]

5. The Cook Political report is very trustworthy

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6. it doesn't sugarcoat it

...still isn't portraying this as some kind of doom and devastation for Dems.