Why Republicans Have Won the Special Elections

[DonViejo]

June 21, 2017 at 10:13 am EDT By Taegan Goddard

Jonathan Chait: “It’s certainly true that Jon Ossoff’s underperformance of the polls (he was nearly tied in the polling average, and is losing by almost 4 points) should incrementally adjust one’s view of the Democrats’ prospects. But the reason the party has lost all four special elections is glaringly simple. It is not some deep and fatal malady afflicting its messaging, platform, consultants, or ad spending allocation methods. Republicans have won the special elections because they’ve all been held in heavily Republican districts.”

“The special elections exist because Donald Trump appointed Republicans in Congress to his administration, carefully selecting ones whose vacancy would not give Democrats a potential opening. It feels like Democrats somehow can’t win, but that is entirely because every contest has been held on heavily Republican turf.”

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https://politicalwire.com/2017/06/21/republicans-won-special-elections/

[LisaM]

1. Good point. I always wished that Obama had not picked Janet Napolitano

since she was replaced by Jan Brewer, who caused much harm in Arizona.

[dbackjon]

14. Her and Kathleen Sebelius

Trump was smart in his picks on that account

[mythology]

2. He was down by 2 points in a late poll with a 3 point moe

He didn't really underperform. And considering the 2016 Congressional election was 23 points, he did well.

[Phoenix61]

3. This!!!

It was never going to be a "fair" race. The only reason there was a race held there was because the repubs knew they would win.

[pirateshipdude]

4. "theyve all been held in heavily Republican districts.

I am surprised with this reality, we then attacks Democrats and our party for having failed.

[brush]

8. The failure was in the first, early election before the run-off against Handel

All resources should have been thrown behind Ossoff then when he could have won the seat outright without a run-off.

It was within our grasp but the party apparatus didn't seem to grasp the importance of the early election where Ossoff almost got the required 50.1%. Everyone else, including Handel were 15-25% behind.

Given a reprieve, the repugs were able to get all their dark money behind Handel, and she was able to brush off her pioneering Interstate CrossCheck chops alone with their hacking tricks and they steadily eroded Ossoff's early successes and stole another one.

Boy do we need someone in place nationally who is paying attention and who gets this stuff and is a step or two ahead of the repugs so opportunities like this don't slip through our fingers.

Like where is our strong, concerted and well publicized effort to combat repug cheating? We know they are going to do it. We've know since 2000 that they cheat in anyway they can and now with Citizens United and dark money and Russian bots they can cheat even worse yet our national organization has not come out strongly in doing something about it.

Why?

Bring back Howard Dean and his 50-states strategy or something. I'm so tired of always being the victim reacting to repug tricks instead of being proactive to combat their tricks.

[pirateshipdude]

9. I am not well versed about the beginning of the campaign and how much

Democrats invested in Ossoff. I do remember that he had the Independents pushing for another, again not uniting behind one. I think Ossoff did well, that it is evidence there are issues in 2018 for Republicans and this is a very red gerrymandered district.

I love Dean and would love him back at DNC.

I get the argument with Citizen and dark money and Russia involvement. I put the blame on Republicans, not the Democrats. They own it and I do not know what the answer is to combat it. We all know it is a big issue. Lots of people were being turned away in Ossoff area. DeKalb.

[brush]

10. The turn aways were Interstate CrossCkeck at work.

[pirateshipdude]

11. Please explain, if you have the time. Eom

[brush]

12. Interstate CrossCheck is a computer program that combs voter roles and looks for AA, Latino...

and even Asian sounding names then seeks other names that are similar.

A Jose A. Mendez and a Jose C. Mendez will both then be purged from the voting roles claiming voter fraud without warning or notification to the voters purged.

When said voters show up to vote their names are nowhere on the rolls and they are turned away.

Another tactic in the repug dirty trick bag.

[pirateshipdude]

16. Thank-you so much, for this information.

I need to understand factually, what is happening with our votes so when I educate, it is thru fact. I will research this. Thank-you.

[onit2day]

20. It should be illegal since it assumes guilt

without evidence. To sue the voter must have standing of harm but isn't character assassination and preventing voting a harm. Voting is not a right according to the SC, it is a privilege. But registering is a right isn't it like getting a driving's license? Georgia has no system to verify the votes. Karen Handel is a very dishonest and deceitful person but right at home in republican party who feel all is fair to gain power

[brush]

21. You're right, which is why we need a determined, organized effort to combat repug cheating.

[zentrum]

23. This.

[Else You Are Mad]

5. Exactly.

The Democratic candidates had no chance in any of these special elections thanks to gerrymandering and voter suppression/election fraud. The fact that the contests were as close as they were, means that Democrats have a serious shot to win GOP filled seats in purple and blue districts and states.

[gtar100]

6. I won't be expecting the MSM to clarify that point.

If the 4th Estate actually did their jobs we'd likely not have most of these reprobates in the public offices as we do today.

[niyad]

7. thank you for that sane reminder.

[kudzu22]

13. The money did him in

The fact that the national party poured so much money into this election may have actually hurt Ossoff's chances. I think the fact that it got so much national attention drove turnout for both sides. If it had been completely ignored, maybe....MAYBE....turnout would be lower and the higher energy on the democrat side could have carried the day.

I suppose it's unrealistic to expect that such a race could escape national attention, but it's a thought.

[onit2day]

17. The most money came to Handel thru her PACs

Who ran attack ads 24/7. Only her dark money was not counted as campaign donations because they went through PACs. Ossoff was against raising taxes on the rich, didn't support single payer, opposed being classified as a liberal and said both parties were equally guilty of fraud and waste. He is not a democrat I would support for any other reason than he was a democrat and better than the alternative.

[onit2day]

15. Agreed but at the Nation article showing

Karen Handel has been sued for her voter suppression tactics in Georgia and is guilty of massive voter suppression purging thousands from the voter rolls so even though it was an extremely red district Ossoff...a conservative democrat still made a huge showing...but I would still like to see how many voters were purged from the voter rolls.

[rtracey]

18. Messaging

I have said it in other forums, and I'll say it here, IMO, the democrat party messages is old, outdated, and not all-inclusive, we need fresh, young, new blood. and I'm not the only one....

Seth Moulton - "Ossof Race better be a wake up call for Democrats - business as usual isn't working. Time to stop rehashing 2016 and talk about the future."

Seth Moulton - "We need a genuinely new message, a serious jobs plan that reaches all Americans, and a bigger tent not a smaller one. Focus on the future."

Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA), a progressive who represents Silicon Valley, said Democrats have failed to appreciate how massive changes in the economy are impacting voters.

“We have to figure out how we are going to speak to people’s economic anxiety,” he told NBC News. “We’ve failed at doing that.” “Our politics are still conventional, incremental, are not very different, frankly, from our proposals from 10 years ago,” he added.

Dan Pfeiffer - "We could sit here on Twitter and argue about why Ossoff lost or we could fight like hell to defeat Trumpcare and then reconvene and discuss"

[Hamlette]

19. We won 7 straight special House races after Obama won in 2008 and lost the House in 2010

It's not ancient history.

The GOP went after 2010 with a fever because of redistricting. We need to have the same mindset about 2018 and 2020. Never forget, 2018 is big because it will help save us and it will set the stage for 2020.

2020 is the bigest prize (unless we win the redistricting case in the Supreme Court. Which I"m not counting on.)

[WestSeattle2]

22. I think Democrats did outstanding in these special elections! Come on - for a Democrat to get

anywhere near winning in these districts, would be like a Republican winning Pelosi's seat in San Francisco. If I was a Republican in a swing district, or even in a district where I'd won by less than ten points, I'd be very concerned.