The overall message of 2017 special elections is that Republicans are in trouble
Vox
Democrats are consolidating Clintons gains, and Republicans arent consolidating Trumps.
Rank-and-file Democrats are, reasonably, disappointed with a loss in what seemed to be a winnable special election in Georgia. Even my colleague Andrew Prokop warns that Democrats shouldnt sugarcoat the result, which is bad news for the party.
But step back from the specifics of the race and look at all four special elections in red districts held since Donald Trumps election, and a more optimistic story emerges. Democrats have successfully transferred Hillary Clintons gains in well-educated districts to their down-ballot candidates, even while succeeding in making up some of the ground she lost in white working-class ones.
The Democratic Partys leaders seem to have believed they could improve on her margins in a place like the Georgia Sixth District while being unreasonably pessimistic about the partys chances in situations like the South Carolina and Kansas races. That speaks somewhat poorly of their judgment and strategic acumen, but the underlying reality revealed by the four elections taken as a whole is actually more bullish for Democrats than the one the partys leaders thought they were in. If the basic pattern holds up with Democrats pocketing Clintons gains and the GOP not consolidating Trumps they are well positioned for the future.