Trump will win 2020 elections by

[UCmeNdc]

Maintaining his core voters and Russian manipulation of vote counts. Trump will only worry about keeping core Trump voters energized. He doesn't need anyone else with Putin ability to send Propaganda and cyber attacks to drive down the opposition.

[Gravitycollapse]

1. I don't think that will work the second time. He will be Public Enemy #1 soon.

His approval ratings are already fundamentally unprecedented. This investigation will not bode well for his longterm viability; a viability that was already suspect the moment he lazily glided down that stupid fucking escalator two years ago.

They can manipulate the vote counts all they want. If Donald Trump becomes the most hated President in history--a title he may already hold-- his win will be suspect to the point of true crisis. Trumps election presented a crisis of identity as we came to terms with the fact that America really was as terrible as some assumed. The next crisis will be one of procedural inconsistency. His win won't make sense, even to the dumbest Americans.

[burnbaby]

4. I don't believe he will run again

He is the type of guy to quit while he is a head. Pence will run and of course time will tell

[CottonBear]

5. Trump filed papers for the Trump 2020 re-election campaign on Inauguration Day.

Someone is planning for him to run for re-election.

[WePurrsevere]

9. A couple reasons... 1)Campaign funds can be used for legal defense...

if incurred as a result of their run for office.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-close-to-choosing-outside-counsel-for-russia-investigation/2017/05/22/8709f62e-3f22-11e7-9869-bac8b446820a_story.html?utm_term=.10c9ed33673f
>>But campaign finance lawyers said Trump could probably draw funds from his reelection committee to cover legal expenses related to the Russia inquiries, including money donated this year.

“When it comes to legal expenses, the test is whether the expenses would have been incurred irrespective of the campaign,” said Daniel Petalas, a Washington campaign-finance lawyer who served as the Federal Election Commission’s acting general counsel and head of enforcement. “So if the allegation is Trump — either as candidate or officeholder — is facing legal costs as a result of those statuses, then he is entitled to use his campaign funds to defray the legal expenses.” <<

Pence can use them too:
http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/16/politics/mike-pence-campaign-attorney/index.html
Vice President Mike Pence has hired a pricey personal defense lawyer amid the mounting Russia investigation -- but how exactly is he going to pay for it?
Pence, who unlike his boss is not independently wealthy, could possibly use funds from the Trump-Pence re-election campaign or from Pence's new PAC, which is hosting a fundraiser Friday, to pay Richard Cullen, the chairman of McGuireWoods LLP.

2) Trump has never stopped running for office he already has. These ongoing PR rallies could be covered by by campaign funds.

3) Leftover campaign funds can't be used for personal use BUT they can be donated to other political campaigns OR charities... like... oh say... Ivanka's or any other Trump non-profit and those non-profits can pay a salary to those that run it.
http://www.newsobserver.com/latest-news/article158526404.html

So... just because Trump has filed for re-election doesn't mean he's actually going to RUN in 2020. It could only be so he can keep the campaign funds he has, and is still raising, handy. For him it's a win-win.

[CottonBear]

17. Wow! I did not know all the ways that campaign funds could be used.

Thanks for providing useful and factual sourced information!

[WePurrsevere]

20. You're very welcome. I ran across a comment...

about him possibly being able to use funds for legal defense when he first filed and meant to do more digging at the time but... well... 'squirrel'. Thanks to your comment reminding me, now we both know a bit more.

Anyway, I'm not saying he definitely won't run again (and we need to be ready if he does) but most people will 'assume' he will so he's 'making hay while the sun shines'. The campaigning and fundraising he's still doing are to provide his ego with its needed stroking from his adoring 'fans' and to get those coffers of 'his' as full as possible because no matter what he sees these rallies and fundraisers like the narcissistic greedy CEO that he is to his very core.

Personally I lean towards him not think running again IF things keep going as they are, and that's assuming that he's not impeached or otherwise no longer in office.

With his obvious case of narcissistic personality disorder he simply doesn't have the temperament for this. In his mind he's perfect, "a star", 'the boss' and if he's not worshipped and kissed up to by the multitudes the way he feels that he's entitled to then we're not worthy of his time and effort and I suspect he'll pull a Nixonian, 'won't have Trump to kick around' speech.

[Cosmocat]

12. Right?

I mean, what people WANT to think.

[madokie]

7. I think he'll run

as hard and fast away from washington dc as his fat ass can run.

When the hounds come after him he skedaddle like the thief he is. Trust me when I say 'when the hounds come after him' cause they are coming after him. IMO

[FM123]

27. Hahaha, I am so enjoying the imagery of his fat butt running away....

[oberliner]

11. He will

Already working on the re-election campaign.

[Lord_at_War]

39. This is my opinion, also.

I think just running for President was just another thing on Cheeto Hitler's "bucket list".

Then, he won. I suspect he might even quit before his term expires to make Pence the "incumbent"...

[oberliner]

10. You're wrong

It will work.

[rockfordfile]

48. Many Americans already consider Trumpf a traitor.

[Buckeyeblue]

2. This could happen

But 45 is a one trick poney. If we run on the future, on taking care of the country, the enviornment and the people and we get people excited, I think we can have a decisive victory. We cannot make the election about running against 45. We have to have a story of the future and how our vision is better than the 4 chaotic years under 45.

[dmosh42]

3. I seem to recall some Euro countries(France, Holland) were smart enough....

to switch to paper ballots, which seem to help. We're not smart enough for that.

[CurtEastPoint]

8. Yes, I was in France during their recent election: foolproof paper ballots.

[Wiseman32218]

25. As long as they are not the type like Florida had that allowed Bush to win.

[dmosh42]

41. Yes, you're right, I should have explained maybe something like Oregon .......

and Washington State.

[Trust Buster]

6. I believe Trump shows signs of mental disease that very well might cut his first term short.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

13. I think that would only happen if big "threats" were manufactured with...

... much of the media complicit, like during the lead up to the invasion of Iraq.

The world could be essentially unchanged on a broad scale, but if much the media obediently repeats the propaganda that comes from this country's leadership like they've done so many times in the past, too many Americans will become frightened and support actions/politicians for their supposed protection. Even if the media discounts the truthfulness of the propaganda sometimes, the fact that they repeat the fear-mongering on a regular basis affects people.

[Demsrule86]

14. No he won't...he barely won last time with a perfect trifecta of shit.

He will not win and I fail to see why you would post an opinion that is so disheartening...what is the point of this?

[saidsimplesimon]

26. We agree Demsrule

[Demsrule86]

37. Yes we do...

[treestar]

42. I agree. His luck with the EC

was so perfect, it is like lightening striking twice in the same place. This time people have learned they have to go and vote. Hope 2018 will show that too. The only way to get him impeached is a Democratic Congress.

[Demsrule86]

45. Yes...and we need the Senate...Honestly, without GOP help to convict in the Senate

impeaching Trump is a waste of time unless we take the Senate in numbers that we can convict him ourselves. I think the GOP is more likely to force a resignation if it gets bad for them.

[politicat]

15. The manipulation can be countered at the local level. Go get involved.

Now is the time. Every county has a Clerk and Recorder. Most of the voting tech is near or beyond end of service life, so now is the time to be pushing for paper ballots everywhere. That's at county level, not state.

We're the watchdogs. We can't be sloppy ever again.

[Shell_Seas]

16. This is depressing.

[BannonsLiver]

18. Thats right. everyone stay home, give up etc.

All is lost. Resistance is futile.

[HipChick]

19. He'll run, Dems will not come out to vote...half the population didn't vote

Voter suppression+Gerrymanding = another 4yrs of Trump....remember Bush?

[Awsi Dooger]

21. Massive situational advantage

That's the one thing Trump has going for him in 2020, and anybody who dismisses it or downgrades it is an absolute fool.

The public has enormous patience and benefit of a doubt toward an incumbent whose party has been in power only one term. The theory apparently is to allow him to finish the job. Jimmy Carter in 1980 is the only incumbent in more than a century to lose in the advantage scenario. So we would probably need Trump to be stuck in low 40s approval if not high 30s to get rid of him. The problem with that, of course, if that Trump already prevailed in a cycle in which his favorable numbers were very low. If the economy is in good shape he can probably withstand low personal approval again.

The midterm results don't mean much of anything toward the presidential result two years later. Both parties have made that mistake in recent decades...false confidence in the 1994 outcome or the 2006 outcome.

[loyalsister]

22. If he doesn't run, this guy might

One clue might rest in the Web address “EricGreitensForPresident.com.” Eric Greitens reserved it himself. Seven years ago.

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/governor-candidate-greitens-oddly-national-funding-base-may-hint-at/article_e47ad56c-7892-507a-afd3-69f56facbe18.html

He is a self promoter with no real political grounding. He is young, dangerous, and and possibly being mentored by Trump. He is most certainly being groomed for something.

[blur256]

29. I just posted on facebook about him

I live in Connecticut now but still stay tuned in to Missouri politics since all of my family lives there. He is an absolute asshole of a man. I posted to make sure everyone I love there is ok because he just stated its tax hike rates or cuts for spending, and we aren't going to increase taxes. Fuck that guy.

[loyalsister]

30. He is a piece of work!!

He was once friends with a now former state rep, and even attended his campaign kick-off. At that time, he was a Democrat, and supported Obama. He is a vile opportunist, and his proximity to Trump is scary. He would give them an opportunity to distance themselves from Bannon. I think that has a lot to do with how he got elected here. The GOP got some very bad press when the state auditor killed himself. It turned out that it was because he was running for governor and his primary opponents were starting to make anti-Semitic noises about him.
I think it is no coincidence that Greitens is Jewish.

[blur256]

34. I did not know that

Jesus

[loyalsister]

35. Unfortunately, he's a veteran, accomplished, intelligent, experienced, young, and credible

He is a Rhodes scholar and has a PhD. He could easily slide into national leadership as the anti-Trump after enough damage to the GOP brand has been done. Sometimes it feels like, the more nefarious the possibility- the more likely it is.

[Drahthaardogs]

23. Trump won't run. He has dementia.

My opinion

[smirkymonkey]

24. Over my dead body.

No way.

[RandySF]

28. It wouldn't shock me.

[UCmeNdc]

31. 1st acknowledge Russian interference and block it by any means necessary.

2nd insist on paper ballots throughout the United States.

[Purveyor]

32. He won't be holding the office by 2020. nt

[Jimbo101]

33. I don't think his health will hold up - not wishing anything bad - don't have to

He's not in great shape, doesn't live a healthy lifestyle - doesn't eat right - and he stays constantly stressed out.

And his doctor ???? (that's another story)

[NobodyHere]

38. If you're a Futurama fan you'll find this funny

[Yupster]

44. Agree with you

I just think the risks on his health is pretty big living the life he does at his age.

I think that will give him a good excuse to not run again.

Would Pence have an easy ride to the nomination, or would people like Rubio challenge him?

[madinmaryland]

36. Which one? Donald, ivanka, Eric, or Donald jr?

[crazycatlady]

40. I don't think he's running in 2020

Apparently he hates the job.

[KingCharlemagne]

43. No. He. Won't. His trade war policies will usher in a severe eecession or even a depression. - nt

[Demsrule86]

46. No he won't...just stop!

[VOX]

47. This is a very NEGATIVE thing you're doing here...

You probably don't mean to deliberately, but by posting all these "abandon all hope" tales of a fascist-hell-certain-to-come, you're sapping morale here. It's been proven that simply by having test subjects read (or hear) negative messages repeatedly-- while the subjects are engaged in activity (in this case, the Democratic Party), subjects begin to associate their unpleasant feelings with, again, if this were the case, the Democratic Party. They'll feel like losers, feel depressed by having a once-negligible fear of the future now blown into a dark hopelessness confirmed by your "Trump will win in 2020..." imagery.

Not to quash your free speech, of course. Maybe try to offer some small beam of hope with your grim scenarios? Maybe like, "This is what's gonna happen in 2020 if we don't get our people out to the polls and vote." Or some such.

Thanks for listening,
Cheers

[Bradical79]

49. You're posting propaganda yourself

Not intentional I'm sure, but it's esentially saying "don't try, we can't win". I alerted and wrote a message for the administrators. I don't think this kind of defeatest poorly thought out hot take predicting Republican victory belongs on a Democratic forum.